Lecture D Adaptive Management 2004

Theory and Practice to Manage  Ecosystem Dynamics:Resilience and Adaptive Managment: 

Theory and Practice to Manage Ecosystem Dynamics: Resilience and Adaptive Managment Jan Sendzimir International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis Laxenburg, Austria sendzim@iiasa.ac.at

Outline: 

Classic Ecology Production throughput and Nutrient Cycling Resilience Theory Ecosystem dynamics: sources of surprise Factors Influencing Resilience Control of disturbance, Regulation of Renewal Adaptive Management Co-evolution of learning, policy and practice Summary Outline

Slide3: 

ESTUARY FOOD CHAIN Energy Converges to the top of the Food Chain

ProductionEnergy flow and concentration to higher quality: 

Production Energy flow and concentration to higher quality

Nitrogen CycleWeb of feedbacks links gaseous and organic phases: 

Nitrogen Cycle Web of feedbacks links gaseous and organic phases

Phosphorus CycleFossil storages erode and return to the sea: 

Phosphorus Cycle Fossil storages erode and return to the sea

Bio-geochemical CyclesLinking Production and Energy Transfer: 

Bio-geochemical Cycles Linking Production and Energy Transfer

Succession of Forest in temperate Southeast USA: 

Succession of Forest in temperate Southeast USA

Malfunctioning Human Ecology: 

Malfunctioning Human Ecology Destruction of natural systems through development, mining, agriculture, toxics generation The economic system and national accounts (GDP) do not take into account the destruction of natural systems nor the depletion of resources Humans are appropriating vast portions of biomass and water and are moving enormous quantities of materials Humans are coopting 40% of terrestial and 30% of aquatic Net Primary Production (NPP) (Vitousek et al 1986)) Humans are coopting 26% of all evapotranspiration and 54% of available water runoff, a net of about 30% of all the solar powered hydrologic cycle (Postel 1997) Humans are moving more material than all natural forces combined (Schmidt-Bleek 1997)

Outline: 

Classic Ecology Production throughput and Nutrient Cycling Resilience Theory Ecosystem dynamics: sources of surprise Factors Influencing Resilience Control of disturbance, Regulation of Renewal Adaptive Management Co-evolution of learning, policy and practice Summary Outline

Resilience Theory: 

Resilience Theory Invert the normal pessimism “If the world really is collapsing, why do so many ecosystems persist?” Develop common tools to study the decline, collapse or persistence of ecological, economic and social systems. You are resilient if your identity persists: In the face of shock or disturbance the same set of organizing processes remain to control the behavior and appearance of a resilient system.

The Dynamics of Change:Paradoxical Twins: 

The Dynamics of Change: Paradoxical Twins Unpredictable Change - Surprises Smooth, continuous change suddenly interrupted by reversal or collapse. Predictable Change - Return Times Fires, Floods, Pest Outbreaks How do we reconcile these contradictions?

Landscape and State Space Views of Industrial Optimism: 

Landscape and State Space Views of Industrial Optimism

Stability Landscape Viewof Ecological Pessimism: 

Stability Landscape View of Ecological Pessimism

Stability Landscape View of Multiple Stable States: 

Stability Landscape View of Multiple Stable States

Examples ofMultiple Stable States: 

Examples of Multiple Stable States Coral Reefs coral vs. algae Arid Landscapes shrubland vs. grassland Shallow Lakes eutrophic vs. clear North Florida Forest longleaf pine savanna & fire vs. hardwood forest without fire

Stability Landscape View of Evolution Shift from one domain to the next as the rules change : 

Stability Landscape View of Evolution Shift from one domain to the next as the rules change

Ecosystem ResilienceDynamic Exchanges between Stability and Disturbance: 

Ecosystem Resilience Dynamic Exchanges between Stability and Disturbance Stability is recognized for its contributions to productivity and bio-geochemical cycles. Like ‘invigorating’ gymnastics, disturbances contribute to diversity, structure and resilience. The engine of evolution and resilience. Not disturbance alone Nor stability alone But the cycling between them

Collapse of Resilience: 

Collapse of Resilience Surprise from Cross-scale Interactions Occasionally Natural systems develop to a stage of “over-maturity” where elements are over-connected. They become accidents waiting to happen. Then collective activities of small scale processes can “cascade upward” and cause the system to flip to another system type.

Surprise in Florida Bay: 

Surprise in Florida Bay Florida Bay Sea grass Clear Water Muddy Water Algae Blooms

System Dynamics: 

System Dynamics

Temporal Surprise Variables dislocated in time and space: 

Temporal Surprise Variables dislocated in time and space Pelagic Fishery in North Sea Surface fish (herring and mackeral) eliminated by fishing pressure Surprise: Bottom fish explode! Loss of surface predators relaxed pressures on smaller fish (sand eels, Norway pout, young stages of bottom dwellers). Smaller fish migrate to bottom carrying energy and nutrients. Bottom fish populations increase suddenly.

Net Positive FeedbackLose 1 Negative Feedback  Balance Shifts to Positive : 

Net Positive Feedback Lose 1 Negative Feedback  Balance Shifts to Positive Bottom Fish SUN Algae Small Fish Herring, Mackeral Benthos – Ocean Bottom North Sea Fishery + + + + _ _ _ Ocean Surface

Temporal Surprise Variables dislocated in time and space: 

Temporal Surprise Variables dislocated in time and space Pelagic Fishery in Lake Victoria, Kenya Surface fish (herbivores) eliminated by new predator Surprise: Bottom fish die off! New sport fish (Nile Perch) eliminates surface herbivores algae sinks to bottom rather than recycled in epilimnion. Algae accumulates on bottom  driving huge bacteria explosion  consume all oxygen. Bottom fish populations die from anoxia and migrate to shallow areas near shore.

Net Negative FeedbackLose 1 Negative Feedback  Balance Shifts to Positive : 

Net Negative Feedback Lose 1 Negative Feedback  Balance Shifts to Positive Bottom Fish SUN Algae Herbivores Nile Perch Benthos – Lake Bottom Lake Victoria Fishery + + + + _ _ _ Introduce sport fish Bacteria O2 _ ANOXIA Migrate to Shallow zones

Sources of Uncertainty: 

Sources of Uncertainty Spatial complexity hampers prediction Natural systems are patchy and heterogeneous in the distribution of objects and in the scales at which processes operate. Summary Different sets of processes dominate at different scales to generate different structures characteristic of those scale ranges.

Ecological Scaling: 

Ecological Scaling Scale is the spatial and temporal frequency of a process or structure. A scale domain is bounded by the grain size of processes detected and the extent or span of processes attended. -1 0 1 2 3 4 century year month decade 4 2 0 - 2 - 4 - 6 -3 -2 -4 1 000 yrs day hour 1 cm 1000 km 1 km 10 m 1 m Log Space (km) 10 000 yrs Log Time (years)

Vegetative & Atmospheric Scales: 

Vegetative & Atmospheric Scales Atmospheric processes occur faster than vegetative processes occurring at the same spatial scale. LOG SPACE- km -1 0 1 2 3 4 century year month decade 4 2 0 - 2 - 4 - 6 -3 -2 -4 1 000 yrs day hour 1 cm 1000 km 1 km 10 km 100 m 1 m stand patch crown needle forest region El Niño front s long waves thunderstorms climate change LOG TIME - years Vegetative Structures Atmospheric Processes 10 000 yrs

Slide29: 

What Processes Produce the Forest Mosaic of Bialowieza?

Time and Space Scales of Processes Structuring the Bialowieza Forest: 

Time and Space Scales of Processes Structuring the Bialowieza Forest

Outline: 

Classic Ecology Production throughput and Nutrient Cycling Resilience Theory Ecosystem dynamics: sources of surprise Factors Influencing Resilience Control of disturbance, Regulation of Renewal Adaptive Management Co-evolution of learning, policy and practice Summary Outline

Slide32: 

Ecological Resilience Measures system integrity as the capacity to absorb disruption and remain the same kind of ecosystem. Emerges from cross-scale interactions Depends upon: Control of Disturbance Regulation of Renewal

What Promotes Resilience?: 

What Promotes Resilience? Control of Disturbance Disturbance Frequency and Intensity Technical Restrictions Chesapeake Shellfish Fishery Herbivore grazing/browsing Fire or logging in forests Development in floodplain Local rain cycle in river basins

What Promotes Resilience?: 

What Promotes Resilience? Control of Disturbance Capacity to Absorb Disturbance Landscape morphometry Room for the River Program - Rhine river Habitat availability Ability to migrate (connectivity of landscape) Spatial Heterogeneity (mangroves, eel grass) Processing and Cycling of Resources Cross-scale functional reinforcement Within-scale functional diversity

What Promotes Resilience?: 

What Promotes Resilience? Regulation of Renewal (or Regenerative potential) Stored Resources Soil depth, organic content, seed bank Water (aquifer, lake, river) Nutrients in biomass

What Promotes Resilience?: 

What Promotes Resilience? Regulation of Renewal Facility of Response Recolonization distance Proximity of Youth (Kobe Earthquake) Biodiversity Cross-scale functional diversity Capacity to adapt, to generate novelty, to innovate

What Promotes Resilience?: 

What Promotes Resilience? Regulation of Renewal (Regenerative potential) Availability of Information Viability of cultural information transfer - Cultural Capital Language (Norway surrenders to English) Customs (education, discourse) Politics and institutions Human Memory & Population Age Structure Cree People and Caribou (Birkes)

Why Panarchy Theory?: 

Why Panarchy Theory? Rationalize the interplay between: Predictable and unpredictable Evolutionary change and persistence Explore the world where different variables are nested inside of one another and change at different scales in space and time.

PanarchyA Cross-scale Nested Set of Adaptive Cycles: 

Panarchy A Cross-scale Nested Set of Adaptive Cycles

Why Panarchy Theory?To Account for Dynamics: 

Why Panarchy Theory? To Account for Dynamics Within a level Adaptive cycle describes the engine of novelty, Creative Destruction, and renewal or reorganization. Between levels Revolt – the cascade upward of tiny events Remember – the context of the next larger level at climax constrains the next smaller level in times of renewal

Cross-Scale Interatcions:Revolt and Remember: 

Cross-Scale Interatcions: Revolt and Remember

Outline: 

Classic Ecology Production throughput and Nutrient Cycling Resilience Theory Ecosystem dynamics: sources of surprise Factors Influencing Resilience Control of disturbance, Regulation of Renewal Adaptive Management Co-evolution of learning, policy and practice Summary Outline

Mandate to Counter-pose Theory and Practice: 

Mandate to Counter-pose Theory and Practice Science can’t address problems alone Control, replication and isolation of single causative variables are impossible in a multi-variate arena (interface of nature/society). Problem causes and solutions are dynamic Uncertainty emerging from change is increased by society’s attempts to learn and manage. We need adaptive ways to understand and implement new ideas that flexibly integrate theory and practice.

Learning That Persistently Adapts : 

Learning That Persistently Adapts Truth is not constant but evolutionary Social and natural systems continue to change Initial responses to crises were not as important as the sustained capability to learn and respond accordingly.

Conventional Response to Crisis: Reliving Mistakes: 

Conventional Response to Crisis: Reliving Mistakes Policy as Solution Crisis Management Action as Fix Assessment Report Stored In Library

Research and Management Linked in a Cycle of Integrated Learning: 

Research and Management Linked in a Cycle of Integrated Learning

Assessing Both the Known and the Uncertain: 

Assessing Both the Known and the Uncertain Use disagreements to reveal gaps in understanding. Common gaps and links in understanding can bridge the various backgrounds . Computer models do not equal vehicles of truth; they integrate peoples’ understanding. Ponder uncertainties to the point that they can be clearly stated as hypotheses.

Connecting our Understanding to the Future: 

Connecting our Understanding to the Future Hot and Dry Unchanged Cool and Wet Hypotheses Understanding Alternative Futures

Adaptive Management (AM): Policies as Hypotheses: 

Adaptive Management (AM): Policies as Hypotheses Policies are the question set based on experience that sets the stage of further action. are not magic bullets that address the right mix of objectives to solve a problem, rather they are astute hypotheses about how the world works are “Questions masquerading as answers” AM embraces uncertainty by trying to find the best questions, avoiding the trap of assuming certainty by rallying around ‘solutions.’

Little Stories with Large Impacts: 

Little Stories with Large Impacts Theory World Views, Paradigms Assumptions Story Questions Modeling to test assumptions and ideas Policy Actions Practices Monitoring Framework Of Discussion And Under- standing Framework of Experimenting, Action and Evaluation Bridge

Summary: 

Summary Classic Ecology – the basis of system productivity and stability. Resilience theory describes how different variables influence system dynamics at different scales. Adaptive Management allows us to integrate research, policy and practice to adapt our understanding and methods to a changing world.