Presentation Transcript
Theory and Practice to Manage Ecosystem Dynamics: Resilience and Adaptive Managment : Theory and Practice to Manage Ecosystem Dynamics: Resilience and Adaptive Managment Jan Sendzimir
International Institute of
Applied Systems Analysis
Laxenburg, Austria
sendzim@iiasa.ac.at
Outline : Classic Ecology
Production throughput and Nutrient Cycling
Resilience Theory
Ecosystem dynamics: sources of surprise
Factors Influencing Resilience
Control of disturbance, Regulation of Renewal
Adaptive Management
Co-evolution of learning, policy and practice
Summary Outline
Slide3 : ESTUARY
FOOD
CHAIN Energy
Converges
to the top
of the
Food Chain
Production Energy flow and concentration to higher quality : Production Energy flow and concentration to higher quality
Nitrogen Cycle Web of feedbacks links gaseous and organic phases : Nitrogen Cycle Web of feedbacks links gaseous and organic phases
Phosphorus Cycle Fossil storages erode and return to the sea : Phosphorus Cycle Fossil storages erode and return to the sea
Bio-geochemical Cycles Linking Production and Energy Transfer : Bio-geochemical Cycles Linking Production and Energy Transfer
Succession of Forest in temperate Southeast USA : Succession of Forest in temperate Southeast USA
Malfunctioning Human Ecology : Malfunctioning Human Ecology Destruction of natural systems through development, mining, agriculture, toxics generation
The economic system and national accounts (GDP) do not take into account the destruction of natural systems nor the depletion of resources
Humans are appropriating vast portions of biomass and water and are moving enormous quantities of materials
Humans are coopting 40% of terrestial and 30% of aquatic Net Primary Production (NPP) (Vitousek et al 1986))
Humans are coopting 26% of all evapotranspiration and 54% of available water runoff, a net of about 30% of all the solar powered hydrologic cycle (Postel 1997)
Humans are moving more material than all natural forces combined (Schmidt-Bleek 1997)
Outline : Classic Ecology
Production throughput and Nutrient Cycling
Resilience Theory
Ecosystem dynamics: sources of surprise
Factors Influencing Resilience
Control of disturbance, Regulation of Renewal
Adaptive Management
Co-evolution of learning, policy and practice
Summary Outline
Resilience Theory : Resilience Theory Invert the normal pessimism
“If the world really is collapsing, why do so many ecosystems persist?”
Develop common tools to study the decline, collapse or persistence of ecological, economic and social systems.
You are resilient if your identity persists:
In the face of shock or disturbance the same set of organizing processes remain to control the behavior and appearance of a resilient system.
The Dynamics of Change: Paradoxical Twins : The Dynamics of Change: Paradoxical Twins Unpredictable Change - Surprises
Smooth, continuous change suddenly interrupted by reversal or collapse.
Predictable Change - Return Times
Fires, Floods, Pest Outbreaks
How do we reconcile these contradictions?
Landscape and State Space Views of Industrial Optimism : Landscape and State Space Views of Industrial Optimism
Stability Landscape View of Ecological Pessimism : Stability Landscape View of Ecological Pessimism
Stability Landscape View of Multiple Stable States : Stability Landscape View of Multiple Stable States
Examples of Multiple Stable States : Examples of Multiple Stable States Coral Reefs
coral vs. algae
Arid Landscapes
shrubland vs. grassland
Shallow Lakes
eutrophic vs. clear
North Florida Forest
longleaf pine savanna & fire vs. hardwood forest without fire
Stability Landscape View of Evolution Shift from one domain to the next as the rules change : Stability Landscape View of Evolution Shift from one domain to the next as the rules change
Ecosystem Resilience Dynamic Exchanges between Stability and Disturbance : Ecosystem Resilience Dynamic Exchanges between Stability and Disturbance Stability is recognized for its contributions to productivity and bio-geochemical cycles.
Like ‘invigorating’ gymnastics, disturbances contribute to diversity, structure and resilience.
The engine of evolution and resilience.
Not disturbance alone
Nor stability alone
But the cycling between them
Collapse of Resilience : Collapse of Resilience Surprise from Cross-scale Interactions
Occasionally Natural systems develop to a stage of “over-maturity” where elements are over-connected.
They become accidents waiting to happen.
Then collective activities of small scale processes can “cascade upward” and cause the system to flip to another system type.
Surprise in Florida Bay : Surprise in Florida Bay Florida Bay Sea grass
Clear Water Muddy Water
Algae Blooms
System Dynamics : System Dynamics
Temporal Surprise Variables dislocated in time and space : Temporal Surprise Variables dislocated in time and space Pelagic Fishery in North Sea
Surface fish (herring and mackeral) eliminated by fishing pressure Surprise: Bottom fish explode!
Loss of surface predators relaxed pressures on smaller fish (sand eels, Norway pout, young stages of bottom dwellers).
Smaller fish migrate to bottom carrying energy and nutrients.
Bottom fish populations increase suddenly.
Net Positive Feedback Lose 1 Negative Feedback Balance Shifts to Positive : Net Positive Feedback Lose 1 Negative Feedback Balance Shifts to Positive Bottom Fish SUN Algae Small Fish Herring, Mackeral Benthos – Ocean Bottom North Sea Fishery + + + + _ _ _ Ocean Surface
Temporal Surprise Variables dislocated in time and space : Temporal Surprise Variables dislocated in time and space Pelagic Fishery in Lake Victoria, Kenya
Surface fish (herbivores) eliminated by new predator Surprise: Bottom fish die off!
New sport fish (Nile Perch) eliminates surface herbivores algae sinks to bottom rather than recycled in epilimnion.
Algae accumulates on bottom driving huge bacteria explosion consume all oxygen.
Bottom fish populations die from anoxia and migrate to shallow areas near shore.
Net Negative Feedback Lose 1 Negative Feedback Balance Shifts to Positive : Net Negative Feedback Lose 1 Negative Feedback Balance Shifts to Positive Bottom Fish SUN Algae Herbivores Nile Perch Benthos – Lake Bottom Lake Victoria Fishery + + + + _ _ _ Introduce sport fish Bacteria O2 _ ANOXIA Migrate to
Shallow zones
Sources of Uncertainty : Sources of Uncertainty Spatial complexity hampers prediction
Natural systems are patchy and heterogeneous in the distribution of objects and in the scales at which processes operate.
Summary
Different sets of processes dominate at different scales to generate different structures characteristic of those scale ranges.
Ecological Scaling : Ecological Scaling Scale is the spatial and temporal frequency of a process or structure.
A scale domain is bounded by the grain size of processes detected and the extent or span of processes attended. -1 0 1 2 3 4 century year month decade 4 2 0 - 2 - 4 - 6 -3 -2 -4 1 000 yrs day hour 1
cm 1000
km 1
km 10
m 1
m Log Space (km) 10 000 yrs Log Time
(years)
Vegetative & Atmospheric Scales : Vegetative & Atmospheric Scales Atmospheric processes occur faster than vegetative processes occurring at the same spatial scale. LOG SPACE- km -1 0 1 2 3 4 century year month decade 4 2 0 - 2 - 4 - 6 -3 -2 -4 1 000 yrs day hour 1
cm 1000
km 1
km 10
km 100
m 1
m stand patch crown needle forest region El Niño front s long waves thunderstorms climate change LOG TIME - years Vegetative Structures Atmospheric Processes 10 000 yrs
Slide29 : What Processes Produce the
Forest Mosaic of Bialowieza?
Time and Space Scales of Processes Structuring the Bialowieza Forest : Time and Space Scales of Processes Structuring the Bialowieza Forest
Outline : Classic Ecology
Production throughput and Nutrient Cycling
Resilience Theory
Ecosystem dynamics: sources of surprise
Factors Influencing Resilience
Control of disturbance, Regulation of Renewal
Adaptive Management
Co-evolution of learning, policy and practice
Summary Outline
Slide32 : Ecological Resilience Measures system integrity as the capacity to absorb disruption and remain the same kind of ecosystem.
Emerges from cross-scale interactions
Depends upon:
Control of Disturbance
Regulation of Renewal
What Promotes Resilience? : What Promotes Resilience? Control of Disturbance
Disturbance Frequency and Intensity
Technical Restrictions
Chesapeake Shellfish Fishery
Herbivore grazing/browsing
Fire or logging in forests
Development in floodplain
Local rain cycle in river basins
What Promotes Resilience? : What Promotes Resilience? Control of Disturbance
Capacity to Absorb Disturbance
Landscape morphometry
Room for the River Program - Rhine river
Habitat availability
Ability to migrate (connectivity of landscape)
Spatial Heterogeneity (mangroves, eel grass)
Processing and Cycling of Resources
Cross-scale functional reinforcement
Within-scale functional diversity
What Promotes Resilience? : What Promotes Resilience? Regulation of Renewal (or Regenerative potential)
Stored Resources
Soil depth, organic content, seed bank
Water (aquifer, lake, river)
Nutrients in biomass
What Promotes Resilience? : What Promotes Resilience? Regulation of Renewal
Facility of Response
Recolonization distance
Proximity of Youth (Kobe Earthquake)
Biodiversity
Cross-scale functional diversity
Capacity to adapt, to generate novelty, to innovate
What Promotes Resilience? : What Promotes Resilience? Regulation of Renewal (Regenerative potential)
Availability of Information
Viability of cultural information transfer - Cultural Capital
Language (Norway surrenders to English)
Customs (education, discourse)
Politics and institutions
Human Memory & Population Age Structure
Cree People and Caribou (Birkes)
Why Panarchy Theory? : Why Panarchy Theory? Rationalize the interplay between:
Predictable and unpredictable
Evolutionary change and persistence
Explore the world where different variables are nested inside of one another and change at different scales in space and time.
Panarchy A Cross-scale Nested Set of Adaptive Cycles : Panarchy A Cross-scale Nested Set of Adaptive Cycles
Why Panarchy Theory? To Account for Dynamics : Why Panarchy Theory? To Account for Dynamics Within a level
Adaptive cycle describes the engine of novelty, Creative Destruction, and renewal or reorganization.
Between levels
Revolt – the cascade upward of tiny events
Remember – the context of the next larger level at climax constrains the next smaller level in times of renewal
Cross-Scale Interatcions: Revolt and Remember : Cross-Scale Interatcions: Revolt and Remember
Outline : Classic Ecology
Production throughput and Nutrient Cycling
Resilience Theory
Ecosystem dynamics: sources of surprise
Factors Influencing Resilience
Control of disturbance, Regulation of Renewal
Adaptive Management
Co-evolution of learning, policy and practice
Summary Outline
Mandate to Counter-pose Theory and Practice : Mandate to Counter-pose Theory and Practice Science can’t address problems alone
Control, replication and isolation of single causative variables are impossible in a multi-variate arena (interface of nature/society).
Problem causes and solutions are dynamic
Uncertainty emerging from change is increased by society’s attempts to learn and manage. We need adaptive ways to understand and implement new ideas that flexibly integrate theory and practice.
Learning That Persistently Adapts : Learning That Persistently Adapts Truth is not constant but evolutionary
Social and natural systems continue to change
Initial responses to crises were not as important as the sustained capability to learn and respond accordingly.
Conventional Response to Crisis: Reliving Mistakes : Conventional Response to Crisis: Reliving Mistakes Policy as
Solution Crisis Management
Action as Fix Assessment Report Stored
In Library
Research and Management Linked in a Cycle of Integrated Learning : Research and Management Linked in a Cycle of Integrated Learning
Assessing Both the Known and the Uncertain : Assessing Both the Known and the Uncertain Use disagreements to reveal gaps in understanding.
Common gaps and links in understanding can bridge the various backgrounds .
Computer models do not equal vehicles of truth; they integrate peoples’ understanding.
Ponder uncertainties to the point that they can be clearly stated as hypotheses.
Connecting our Understanding to the Future : Connecting our Understanding to the Future Hot and Dry Unchanged Cool and Wet Hypotheses Understanding Alternative Futures
Adaptive Management (AM): Policies as Hypotheses : Adaptive Management (AM): Policies as Hypotheses Policies
are the question set based on experience that sets the stage of further action.
are not magic bullets that address the right mix of objectives to solve a problem, rather they are astute hypotheses about how the world works
are “Questions masquerading as answers”
AM embraces uncertainty by trying to find the best questions, avoiding the trap of assuming certainty by rallying around ‘solutions.’
Little Stories with Large Impacts : Little Stories with Large Impacts Theory World Views,
Paradigms Assumptions Story Questions Modeling to test assumptions and ideas
Policy Actions
Practices Monitoring Framework
Of Discussion
And Under-
standing Framework of Experimenting, Action and Evaluation Bridge
Summary : Summary Classic Ecology – the basis of system productivity and stability.
Resilience theory describes how different variables influence system dynamics at different scales.
Adaptive Management allows us to integrate research, policy and practice to adapt our understanding and methods to a changing world.
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