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The Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Wheat Production in China: 

The Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Wheat Production in China AMI.CAAS Ju Hui

Content: 

Content Background Method Current Output Conclusion Future Activities Challenges

Background: 

Background Agriculture in China is particularly sensitive to climate change and climate change may play a significant role in food security for China in future. Wheat is the second most important food crop in China.

Background: 

Background

Background: 

Background

Background: 

Background A substantial amount of research has been completed in the area of agriculture on potential climate change impacts in China.

Skip of Previous Results: 

Skip of Previous Results Rainfed winter wheat under GFDL

Skip of Previous Results: 

Skip of Previous Results Irrigated winter wheat under MAP

Slide10: 

 Not includes fertilizer limitation, only indicates crop potential productivity  Neglecting the interaction between different sectors and crops  Not account for socio-economic changes  Lack impact assessments for extreme events, diseases, insects and weeds  Not evaluate potential technology development

Target of Wheat Research : 

Target of Wheat Research To produce a methodology for assessing climate change impacts on agriculture, which are appropriate for the specific conditions in China To adapt, calibrate and validate existing agriculture models, which can be used to assess the impacts of future climate change and socio-economic scenarios for three future time periods: 2020, 2050 and 2080

Target of Wheat Research : 

Target of Wheat Research  To establish grid calculation method to output grid mapping patterns of climate change impacts on Chinese wheat production.  To screen the most sensitive locations to climate change at the regional scale and provide potential adaptation technology To analyze the range of possible adaptive responses, the influence of future policy and socio-economic scenarios upon the responses

Wheat Ecological Distribution in China: 

Wheat Ecological Distribution in China Method

Method: 

Method Flow of Wheat Dynamic Simulation Model

Current Output: 

Current Output Soil data Weather data Practical technology Collect data needed for crop model

Soil Database: 

Soil Database

Weather Files: 

Weather Files

Wheat Practical Technology: 

Wheat Practical Technology

Current Output : 

Current Output Calculate wheat genotype coefficient More objective and suitable for observing field conditions than before P1V --- Relative amount that development of slowed for each day of unfulfilled vernalization , assuming that 50 days of vernalization is sufficient for all cultivars P1D --- Relative amount that development is slowed when plants are grown in a photoperiod 1hours shorter than the optimum ( which is considered to be 20 hours)

Current Output : 

Current Output Calculate wheat genotype coefficient P5--- Relative grain filling duration based on thermal time (degree days above a base temperature of 1℃ ), where each unit increase above zero adds 20 degree days to an initial value of 430 degree days. G1--- Kernel number per unit weight of stem (less leaf blades and sheaths) Plus spike at anthesis G2--- Kernel filling rate under optimum conditions (md/dy)

Current Output : 

Current Output Calculate wheat genotype coefficient G3--- Non-stress dry weight of a single stem (excluding leaf blades and sheaths) and spike when elongation ceases (g) PHINT--- Phylochron interval; the interval in thermal time (degree days) between successive leaf tip appearances.

The P1V and P1D Value Range of Wheat Cultivars: 

The P1V and P1D Value Range of Wheat Cultivars Thermal Accumulation from Sowing to Jointing Stage

The Relationship of Parameters with Growth Characteristics: 

The Relationship of Parameters with Growth Characteristics

Grain weight: G2 and P5: 

Grain weight: G2 and P5 Grain number/spike: G3 and G1

Climate Change Scenarios: 

Climate Change Scenarios GCM Chinese weather generator

Winter Wheat Yield Change under Different Climate Change Scenarios ( %, 2030): 

Winter Wheat Yield Change under Different Climate Change Scenarios ( %, 2030)

Winter Wheat Yield Change under Different Climate Change Scenarios(%): 

Winter Wheat Yield Change under Different Climate Change Scenarios(%)

Spring Wheat Yield Change under Different Climate Change Scenarios: 

Spring Wheat Yield Change under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Conclusion: 

Conclusion Genotype coefficient has correlation with wheat variety and growth characteristic, the change trend will provide prediction for future variety change. To some extent, winter wheat will had benefit from CO2 fertilization effects in the beginning of CO2 increasing, but with the time proceeding, the yield will decrease.

Conclusion: 

Conclusion Spring wheat yield will decrease under climate change scenarios, some of which is due to temperature increase exceeding their optimum growth condition. Adaptation technology should be planed to reduce the climate change impacts on wheat.

Future Activities : 

Future Activities Further data collection are needed to improve our prediction of impacts (new climate change scenarios) Using new technology (as used by rice simulation) to output grid calculation results Combine socio-economic scenarios into wheat models

Challenges: 

Challenges How to assess the crop redistribution under climate change if the purpose is to provide an integrated assessment impacts (e.g crop alternative plantation) on Chinese agriculture Need to improve the understanding and awareness about agricultural technology development in China, which has potential effects on planed farming activities and responses to future problems and opportunities

Thanks!!: 

Thanks!!