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Modelling past, present and future ship emissions – uncertainties in estimates  : 

Modelling past, present and future ship emissions – uncertainties in estimates   Øyvind Endresen, Ph.d. University of Oslo/Program Director DNV Research and Innovation, Tore Longva and Magnus Eide, DNV Research and Innovation

Introduction: 

Introduction Emissions generated by the merchant fleet represent a significant contribution to the global anthropogenic emissions, in particular NOx and SOx. This presentation will give an overview of past and present ship emissions, as well as scenarios for future ship emissions. Large deviations are reported, and we will address the need for better input data on critical factors (e.g. days at sea) in the activity based modelling.

Integrated approach needed: 

Integrated approach needed Modelling of emissions Distributions of emissions Modelling of impacts (Chemical Transport Models (CTMs) etc) Sales of bunker (per country) Activity modelling (per ship) Fuel consumption

The oceangoing world fleet and sea borne trade: 

The oceangoing world fleet and sea borne trade Tonnage 1950: 22·106 GT 2005: 675 ·106 GT Average size 1950: 2742 GT 2005: 7330 GT (Sources: Endresen et al. (2007), Stopford (1997), Fearnleys (2002), Lloyds)

Past estimates : 

Past estimates (Note: The activity based modelling only cover the main engine fuel consumption) 2002: 634 Mt CO2 (Source: Endresen et al (2007)) Activity based Fuel based

Year 2004 estimates: 

Year 2004 estimates Detailed activity modelling is made for 91,000 ships (above or equal 100 GT), with breakdown into 13 ship types and 7 size categories The operational profiles is based on 617,000 individual ship movements, and we find large variations in activity, depending on ship type and size. The modelled total fuel consumption amounts to some 220 Mt in 2004 (incl. port), and represent some 704 Mt CO2 (Sources: Eide et al 2007 “Emission and impact from future shipping activities”. In preparation) Fuel consumption Ship emission share 2% CO2 4-6% SOx 10-14% NOx

Year 2006 estimates : 

Year 2006 estimates Recent years, significant growth in transport work A 25% increase in fleet installed power in the period 2001 to 2006 World-wide sales of marine bunkers increased by some 20% from 2001 to 2005 (IEA). Today's fuel consumption is estimated to be around 250 Mt, based on activity modelling, and represents some 800 Mt CO2 Sources: Fearnleys (2006), Eide et al 2007 “Emission and impact from future shipping activities”. In preparation.

Future development: 

Future development 2010 Today 2020 2030 2040 (Source: Sustainable propulsion, FellowShip)

DNV Fuel Cell Projects: FellowSHIP: 

DNV Fuel Cell Projects: FellowSHIP This is a scale model Developing fuel cell systems for auxiliary and propulsion power Vessel demonstration and technology qualification planned for 2008/2009 (Source: FellowShip)

Future ship emissions- significant increase: 

Future ship emissions- significant increase (Sources: CIESIN 2002 Eide et al 2007 “Emission and impact from future shipping activities”. In preparation) CO2 emissions GDP

Slide11: 

“New” sea routes- projections 2025 (A1-IPCC scenario, preliminary ) Compared to year 2000: Source: Eide et al 2007 “Emission and impact from future shipping activities”. In preparation; AMVER US Coast Guard; COADS.

Can we rely on activity based estimates?: 

Can we rely on activity based estimates? Fleet growth is not necessarily followed by increased fuel consumption. Uncertainty If activity based, need to include major operational and technological changes, ship and size dependent operation profile etc Days at sea the most critical factor. High versus low estimate, ~90 days in deviation (2000)

Reducing the uncertainties in modelling estimates: 

Reducing the uncertainties in modelling estimates Source: Use of detailed movement and AIS (Automatic Identification System) data to construct more accurate operational profiles (Data from: The Norwegian Coastal Administration)

Wrong activity profiles?: 

Wrong activity profiles? Detailed tracking studies, illustrates that days at sea varies for different ship types (~50 days) and size categories (~100 days), with an fleet average in the range of 180 to 200 days. Modelling studies with the highest estimates have applied 225-270 days at sea sailing, without separating the profile on ship size. AIS data for 500 ships tracked sailing in Norwegian waters clearly shows that 225-270 days at sea sailing is a too high estimate for small and medium sized ships. 250 days (preliminary figures) (Offshore low, but dynamic position operations not included. Data from: The Norwegian Coastal Administration)

Wrong average engine load?: 

Wrong average engine load? Average engine load can be estimated by combining actual sailing speed (over ground, AIS data) and design speed (Lloyds Fairplay data). Gives significantly lower average engine loads compared to assumed representative average load in activity modelling (70-80%). Example of AIS density map, taken form outside North of Norway (Data from: The Norwegian Coastal Administration) Source: (Data from: The Norwegian Coastal Administration) Average engine load Most frequent engine load (preliminary figures)

Large uncertainties in modelling?: 

Large uncertainties in modelling? Assuming 270 days at sea and engine load of 80% for 500 ships sailing in Norwegian waters (from 300 GT to 50,000 GT), will give too high fuel and emissions estimates compared to estimates based on AIS (Data from: The Norwegian Coastal Administration) (preliminary figures)

Conclusion : 

Conclusion The reported sales over the last decades seems not to be significantly underreported as previous simplified activity-based studies have suggested. Ship emissions have significantly increased over the last decades, and projections indicate significant growth. Today’s fuel consumption is around of 250 Mt oil, corresponding to about 800 Mt CO2. Scenario modelling indicates an increase of ship CO2 in 2050 by more than a factor 2. It is concluded that major operational and technological changes, as well as demand for sea borne transport need to be better analysed and described to improve the accuracy of activity based estimates. Vessel type and size dependency need to be included when performing detailed activity modelling. It is recommended to develop operational profiles from AIS and movement data. Several options are/will be available for fuel saving and emissions reductions. Considering the reduction potentials and the long period of time need to implementation, it is expected that ship emissions will continue to increase up to 2050.

References etc.: 

References etc. Corbett, J. J., and Koehler H. W. (2003), Updated emissions from ocean shipping, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 108, doi:10.1029/2003JD003751. Dalsøren, S. B., Endresen Ø., Gravir G., Sørgård E., and Isaksen I. S. A., (2006) Environmental impacts of the expected increase in sea transportation, with particular focus on oil and gas scenarios for Norway and for Northwest Russian,112, Journal of Geophysical Research, D02310, doi: 10.1029/2005JD006927. Eide et al 2007 “Emission and impact from future shipping activities”. In preparation Endresen, Ø., Sørgård E., Bakke J., Isaksen I. S. A. (2004), Substantiation of a lower estimate for the bunker inventory: Comment on "Updated emissions from ocean shipping" by James J. Corbett and Horst W. Koehler, Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, D23302, doi: 10.1029/2004JD004853,. Endresen, Ø., Sørgård E., Sundet J. K., Dalsøren S. B., Isaksen I. S. A., Berglen T. F., and Gravir G. (2003) Emission from international sea transportation and environmental impact, Journal of Geophysical Research, 108 (D17), 4560, doi:10.1029/2002JD002898. Endresen, Ø., Sørgård E., Behrens H. L., Brett P. O., and Isaksen I. S. A. (2007), A historical reconstruction of ships fuel consumption and emissions, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 112, doi: 1029/2006JD007630,. Eyring, V., Köhler H.W., van Aardenne J., and Lauer A. (2005): Emissions from international shipping, Part 1: The last 50 years, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 110, D17306, doi:10.1029/2004JD005620. Eyring, V., Köhler H.W., Lauer A., Lemper B. (2005): Emissions from international shipping: 2. Impact of future technologies on scenarios until 2050, Journal of Geophysical Research VOL. 110, D17306, doi:10.1029/2004JD005620, 2005 Fearnleys (2006), Review 2005 (the Tanker and Bulk markets and fleets), Compiled, prepared and published by Fearnresearch, Norway. Skjølsvik, K.O., Andersen A. B., Corbett J. J., and Skjelvik J.M. (2000), Study on Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Ships, Report to the International Maritime Organization, produced by MARINTEK, Det Norske Veritas (DNV), Centre for Economic Analysis (ECON) and Carnegie Mellon. MT report Mtoo A23-038, Trondheim Norway, February 15. Stopford M.(1997), Maritime Economics, Second edition, Routledge, Tayler&Francis Group, London, UK, ISBN 0-415-15310-7. UNCTAD (2006). Review of Maritime Transport, 2006. New York and Geneva, United Nations, http://www.unctad.org/Templates/Page.asp?intItemID=2618&lang=1 Also: QUANTIFY, EU project, 6 FP, quantify the climate impact of global and European transport systems, DNV responsible for shipping Sustainable propulsion, ongoing research project, Identifies key technological trends and options for maritime power generation FellowShip & Sustainable propulsion, ongoing research projects, respectively marine applications of Fuel cell and future green technology for shipping Lloyds fleet data, several years AMVER data, US Coast Guard, traffic data The Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS), traffic data AIS data provided by The Norwegian Coastal Administration Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), 2002. Country-level GDP and Downscaled Projections based on the A1, A2, B1, and B2 Marker Scenarios, 1990-2100, [digital version]. Palisades, NY: CIESIN, Columbia University. DNV reports, covering measures for emissions reduction etc AIS: Today, the AIS (Automatic Identification System (AIS))-transponders aboard the ships enable VTS centres to monitor and track vessels on large stretches of coastline using shore based AIS receivers. AIS is mandated by the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) and included in SOLAS Chapter V. From 2002 and onwards, all ships above 300 gross tonnes (GT) carry AIS transponders. The system enables the ships to automatically transmit and receive information The data is carried on ordinary maritime VHF radio frequencies, and contains static information (the ships identity, destination, cargo etc.) and dynamic information (speed, position, heading etc.). Static information is transmitted every sixth minute