CFSAM Methodology

Global Information and Early Warning System(GIEWS)on Food and Agriculture: 

Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) on Food and Agriculture OVERVIEW OF METHODOLOGY ON CROP AND FOOD SUPPLY ASSESSMENTS Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Rome, Italy March 2004

Introduction: 

Introduction At the request of national governments, the FAO/GIEWS usually jointly with WFP, conducts Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions (CFSAMs) for countries facing widespread and serious food emergencies. Typically 20-25 countries are annually covered by these missions. Most are in Africa but recent examples also include the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Afghanistan and Iraq. The FAO methodology followed for these assessments is briefly outlined in this presentation. Further details are available from: GIEWS, FAO, Rome, Italy. E-mail: GIEWS1@fao.org; www.fao.org/giews; telephone no. (+39) 06 570 53099. The WFP part of these assessments dealing with the vulnerability analysis is available from WFP – Emergency Needs Assessment Guidelines, 1999; Emergency Field Operations Pocketbook, 2002, e-mail: emergency.preparedness@wfp.org; and the FAO Guidelines.

Purpose & Objectives of CFSAMs: 

Purpose & Objectives of CFSAMs The primary purpose of CFSAMs is to provide accurate, timely and credible information on imminent food security problems in a country or a region so that appropriate actions can be taken by the governments, the international community and others to minimize the impact of man-made or natural disasters on the affected populations.

THREE MAIN COMPONENTS OF FAO/WFP CFSAMs: 

THREE MAIN COMPONENTS OF FAO/WFP CFSAMs

THE FINAL JOINT REPORT: 

THE FINAL JOINT REPORT Integrated Picture of Food Balance, Gap and Food Assistance Needs

Table of Content of a Typical CFSAM Report(Adapted from ETHIOPIA 2004 Report): 

Table of Content of a Typical CFSAM Report (Adapted from ETHIOPIA 2004 Report) Mission Highlights 1. OVERVIEW 2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT 2.1 Macroeconomic situation 2.2 Population 2.3 Agricultural sector 3. FOOD PRODUCTION IN 2003 3.1 General 3.2 Rainfall 2003 3.3 Area planted 3.4 Factors affecting yields 3.5 Other crops 3.6 Livestock 3.7 Cereal and pulse production forecast 3.8 Secondary season (Belg) 2002, 2003 and 2004 4. CROP PRODUCTION SITUATION BY REGION 5. FOOD SUPPLY SITUATION 5.1 Agricultural markets and prices 5.2 Grain supply/demand balance 6. EMERGENCY FOOD AID REQUIREMENTS 6.1 Review of Emergency Food Aid in 2003 6.2 Household Food Security Outlook in 2004 6.3 Nutrition 6.4 Relief Food Aid Requirements in 2004 6.5 Food Basket Considerations 6.6 Local Purchases 6.6 Emergency Food Security Reserve 6.8 Implementation Whenever it is relevant, public health issues such as the HIV/AIDS affecting food security and agriculture are also included.

Slide7: 

Economic Analysis

Macroeconomic Profile of the Country: 

Macroeconomic Profile of the Country National Socio-Economic Parameters Socio-Economic Conditions of the most affected Agriculture Sector in the National Economy

Economic Parameters - Domestic: 

Economic Parameters - Domestic Economic Growth/Decline – GNP/GDP, Purchasing Power Parity, per capita levels Fiscal Position – Deficit, govt. spending, Inflation – food price inflation, effect on purchasing power Unemployment – formal/informal sectors

Economic Parameters - External: 

Economic Parameters - External National Trade Balance Position - Currency Position – Exchange rate changes, reserves, etc. National debt

Socio-Economic Conditions of the Most Affected: 

Socio-Economic Conditions of the Most Affected Per Capita or Household incomes In-kind Wage Earnings Income Distribution HIV/AIDS and other factors

General Development Indicators: 

General Development Indicators Human Development Index Poverty levels – various definitions

Agriculture Sector in the National Economy: 

Agriculture Sector in the National Economy Size and Share of the Sector Employment and Livelihood, Dependence on Agriculture Export Contributions of Agriculture Ag. & economic policy changes

Slide14: 

Food Production/Balance

National Food Balance Sheet: 

National Food Balance Sheet Domestic Availability Total Utilization Import Requirements

Table. Country X: Total grain supply/demand balance, January–December 2004 (‘000 tonnes): 

Table. Country X: Total grain supply/demand balance, January–December 2004 (‘000 tonnes)

Domestic Availability: 

Domestic Availability Opening stocks Domestic production Commercial and concessional imports

Stocks: Opening and Closing: 

Stocks: Opening and Closing On-Farm Stocks Private Stocks Publicly-Held Stocks Stocks in Ports and Transit

Crop Production Estimation: 

Crop Production Estimation Information – GOs, NGOs, Organizations Macrolevel – Satellite imagery and data, Rainfall data Farmer surveys, crop cutting experiments Factors affecting current production Market/trader visits – cross-checks Yield comparison with last, normal, best, worst Other important sources of food and income

Import Requirements: 

Commercial import capacity Concessional imports Uncovered deficit Of which emergency food aid pledged/anticipated Import Requirements

Commercial Food Imports (Ability and willingness to import by public and private sectors): 

Commercial Food Imports (Ability and willingness to import by public and private sectors) Import capacity Export earnings – historical, current Import parity prices Other priorities for imports Commercial market capacity (effective demand) Degree of currency control Foreign exchange for food imports Degree of grain marketing control Private versus government trading

Total Food Utilization: 

Human consumption Apparent consumption rates Population estimates Feed use Seed use Industrial uses Post-harvest losses Exports Closing stocks Total Food Utilization

Vulnerability Assessment: 

Vulnerability Assessment

Vulnerability/Needs Assessment (WFP): 

Vulnerability/Needs Assessment (WFP) Review of emergency food aid Household food security outlook for next year Nutrition status Coping mechanisms Food aid needs and targeting of assistance Relief food aid requirements in 2004 Food basket considerations Local purchases Emergency food security reserves Logistics issues Implementation and other issues

Short Term Food Security Strategy: 

Short Term Food Security Strategy Number of people in need of assistance and the volume and composition of food aid (WFP) Reconciliation of the national food gap (FAO side) and the total assistance requirement (WFP side) Recommendations

Slide26: 

If you have any comments or suggestions on the methodology, special reports, or this presentation, please send them to: GIEWS1@fao.org