Climate change MM

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Presentation under ENCORA Theme 5: Long-term Geomorphologic Change and Climate Impacts in the Coastal Zone & Policy & Management Strategies Magdalena Ariadne Kim Muir Research Associate, Arctic Institute of North America & Advisory Board Member, Climate Change for EUCC- The Coastal Union and EUCC Mediterranean Centre

Introduction: 

Introduction Climate change is not the only or largest impact on the coast and marine areas. However, it is the most unknown and unpredictable impact, and over time will result in unforseen impacts. How do human activities impact the coastal zone now and under a changing climate. What adaptive and management strategies are required? How to provide input to European, national and local policy and decision makers? The presentation begins by reviewing climate impacts for coasts and marine areas.

Introduction: 

Introduction Under the Maritime Strategy, Europe focuses on use and management of coastal and marine zones. The Maritime Strategy, and other initiatives occurring at a national level, will result in the allocation of property-type rights in coastal and marine areas, and economic and environmental regulation. This new regime, as well as increasing coastal and oceans uses, will result in “industrialized” seas, and require protection of biodiversity and conservation and the coastal and marine ecosystems that provide economic goods and services.

Introduction: 

Introduction Climate change combines with other anthroprogenic uses and changes such as: tourism and recreational developments, urban development and built environment, coastal roads and coastal structures, dams and changes to watersheds and sediments, pollution and nutrients inputs , fisheries and other renewable resource use, energy production and transport, including offshore wind and wave structures, marine navigation, dredging, shipping, and active and passive conservation activities.

Introduction: 

Introduction Adaptive management strategies and approaches are required to adapt to climate changes and other anthroprogenic changes. Focus here on biodiversity and conservation and related ecosystem goods and services. Mitigative measures are also important and required to address global issues such as acidification, carbon sequestration and eutrophication. Mitigative measures need to be global, but can be implemented locally in conservation areas. They include carbon reduction, renewable energy, and energy efficiency measures.

Global climate Issues: 

Global climate Issues Ocean acidification could undermine the marine food web and coral. Sea level rise is an issue for small islands, coasts and lowlying lands. Sea level rise and acidification will remain for long time. Impact of high sea surface temperatures on the intensity of tropical cyclones and hurricanes. Changing ocean and wind circulation patterns. The oceans regulate the earth’s climate through absorption of carbon dioxide and heat. Other climate issues include arctic sea ice reduction, invasive and migratory species, fisheries and ecosystems, and eutrophication.

Climate change for coasts and oceans: 

Climate change for coasts and oceans Climate change is a global pattern with differing local and regional manifestations throughout Europe, and regional seas such as the Baltic, Black and Mediterranean Seas. Depending on local vulnerabilities and resilience, coastal and marine ecosystems respond in different ways to human uses and climatic change. The Mediterranean Sea and south Atlantic Ocean will be quite affected, as will lowlying countries and coastal countries like the Netherlands and the UK. How to implement management strategies and approaches for biodiversity and conservation?

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Europe: A unique land mass with varying coastal and marine environments, from largely enclosed seas to deltas, estuaries, bays, lagoons to open oceans

Vulnerability of coastal systems (This and next 3 slides by F Breton, EEA, Athens, Nov 23, 2006): 

Vulnerability of coastal systems (This and next 3 slides by F Breton, EEA, Athens, Nov 23, 2006) EEA: 12% of all EU coastal zones is lying below 5 m elevation and are potentially vulnerable for sea level rise and related inundations. JRC: 19% of total EU-25 population (86 million inhabitants) live in 0-10 km coastal zone EUrosion: annual sediment deficit at European coasts 100 Mt

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Intensive urban sprawl continues on coasts

Urban sprawl in the province of Venice, 1990-2000, cells of 1 km x 1 km – wetlands in the background: 

Urban sprawl in the province of Venice, 1990-2000, cells of 1 km x 1 km – wetlands in the background Despite possible threats from sea level rise and the permanent ecological problems of the lagoon due to agriculture eutrophicating surpluses, urban and infrastructures development has continued in the province of Venice.

European policy framework for climate change : 

European policy framework for climate change Global and regional studies under the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, and Arctic Climate Impact Assessment Scientific Report. European Climate Change Program II Impacts and Adaptation Working Group in sectoral reports for Biodiversity, and Marine Resources and Coastal Zones and Tourism, Sept 2006. EU Green Paper, and EU conference, Adaptation to Climate Change: The European Dimension, Brussels, February 21, 2007. Continuing relevance of Natura 2000, Birds and Habitat Directives, and Water Framework Directive, which may be “climate proofed”.

European policy framework for climate change: 

European policy framework for climate change Climate change will affect the ecological and carrying capacity of aquatic ecosystems which support biodiversity and conservation, and related economic uses such as urban development, fisheries, recreation, and tourism. The issue becomes how to use and manage coastal and marine ecosytems in a precautionary manner, and to build resilience into these systems to allow positive adaptation and change to occur. Need adaptive approaches which allow ecosystems and species to adjust to change & mobility of aquatic species and ecosystems.

Climate impacts for coasts and marine areas: 

Climate impacts for coasts and marine areas Water uses, and alterations in water quality and quantity, may be aggravated by seasonal shifts and changes in temperature and precipitation. Climate change may reduce river flows, and impede the replenishment of aquifers. Salt water intrusion of aquifers and estuaries is a risk. Alterations in water quality due to pollution, nutrient flows, and urban sewage and waste water in estuaries, bays and shallow enclosed seas. Climate change includes changes to sea surface temperature, stratification, annual and seasonal precipitation, and circulatory patterns.

Climate impacts for coasts and marine areas: 

Climate impacts for coasts and marine areas Eutrophication is anthropogenic alteration of the global nitrogen cycle. It is a "global change“ with impacts experienced at a regional and local level . Within Europe, the Adriatic, Baltic, Black and Mediterranean Seas are subject to eutrophication. Risks increase with greater water temperatures, vertical stratification, and less fresh water inputs. Drought and desertification, with increased forecasts of drought and desertification for the south Atlantic and Mediterranean region, these changes occurring in the summer season. Changes in the seasonality of demands and use could affect tourisms, ecosystems, and working and social patterns in local communities.

Climate impacts for coasts and marine areas: 

Climate impacts for coasts and marine areas Coastal erosion subject to extreme weather events & flooding, and climate changes.   Coastal erosion affected by changes in sediment deposit and removal due to the construction of offshore structures, and alterations of rivers. Flooding will increase in certain watersheds as result of shifting and intensifying precipitation patterns, combined with human modifications. Over time, sea level rise may change coastal, island and marine ecosystems, with increasing salt water intrusion in estuaries and aquifers. Invasive species are an increasing risk. “Tropicalization” of the Mediterranean, and moving away from “Mediterranean” climate.

Mediterranean and South Atlantic regionChange is always occurring, but the pace of change and scale of tourist and human development in this area is unsustainable and unprecendented.: 

Mediterranean and South Atlantic region Change is always occurring, but the pace of change and scale of tourist and human development in this area is unsustainable and unprecendented.

Mediterranean Sea: The warmer sea temperatures and greater salinity make it vulnerable to climate change, particularly when combined with input of pollution and nutrients, overfishing, and extensive human uses and construction along the watersheds, coasts and seas. Initiatives are underway to decrease pollution, but at a time of increased human development and migration.: 

Mediterranean Sea: The warmer sea temperatures and greater salinity make it vulnerable to climate change, particularly when combined with input of pollution and nutrients, overfishing, and extensive human uses and construction along the watersheds, coasts and seas. Initiatives are underway to decrease pollution, but at a time of increased human development and migration.

United Kingdom and National Trust: Erosion: 

United Kingdom and National Trust: Erosion National Trust owns 10 % of the coastline of England, Wales and Northern Ireland, or about 700 miles. The report, Shifting Shore and Change Climate, states 126 National Trust coastal sites at risk of flooding, another 33 at risk in the next 100 years, and 169 sites along nearly 380 miles of coast affected by erosion.  For mitigation, the Trust will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by reducing electricity & green technologies. Parallel coastal ownership & concerns in France (Conservatiore du Littoral, and Office National de Forets), and Netherlands.  

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Baie de Somme, France The Baie is subject coastal erosion and sedimentation, and well as freshwater influxes and sediments. Some human settlements are currently affected, are defended, and may need to be relocated. Now, there are discussions to explore risk and acceptable solutions

Greece & Aegean and Black Sea- Eutrophication: 

Greece & Aegean and Black Sea- Eutrophication Current eutrophication in gulfs and enclosed seas of Greece from land based pollution. Potential future challenges, particularly as consider inflows and interactions between Black Sea and East Aegean Sea  

Venice Laguna and sea level & storm events: 

Venice Laguna and sea level & storm events Lagoons can also be considered "sentinels" of climate change processes. Venice Laguna vulenerable due to combination of human, natural and climate processes. Consideration of vulnerability and adaptive capacity needs to distinguish between the extreme and catastrophic events and the chronic impacts of increases in average sea level. Measures are required for flood protection system against extreme high tides as well as routine protection of the city from the degradation (physical, economic and social) caused by tides, waves and saltwater infiltration.

Mediterranean Coasts & Islands: Calvia: 

Mediterranean Coasts & Islands: Calvia Example of Calvia, Mallorca. Like many Mediterranean islands, vulnerability to sea level rise, and loss of coastal ecosystems, and higher temperatures, water shortfalls, and salt water intrusions into aquifers. Fisheries and tourism interactions, with higher sea water temperatures and potential overfishing encouraging jellyfish. Parallels for Cyprus, Greece and Rimini, Italy.  

Atlantic Case Study: Canary Islands: 

Atlantic Case Study: Canary Islands Despite their location adjacent to the Western Sahara, the Canary Islands have a relatively unique ecosystem and climate due to the cooling effect of North Atlantic Oscillation. The NAO or Gulf Stream that warms northern Europe cools the Canary Islands, so moderate climate year round, and strong tourism sector. What will be the potential impacts on the Canary Islands, and tourism sector with: decrease in the circulation and strength of southern flowing NAO and Gulf Stream? more variable temperatures? more vulnerabilty to extreme weather events like hurricanes?  

Atlantic Case Study: Central Region, Portugal: 

Atlantic Case Study: Central Region, Portugal Mostly composed of low zones with marine and aeolian sediments. Presence of sensitive natural ecosystems (sand dunes, cliffs, lagoons and wetlands); high human densities; urban settlements in sensitive areas, and tourism activities. Important economic activities and infra-structure (Aveiro and Figueira da Foz). Also changes in the coast sediment patterns due to dams, harbours, sand removal in rivers or harbours channels, and energetic Atlantic Ocean.  

ENCORA Management Approaches and Strategies: 

ENCORA Management Approaches and Strategies  Adaptive measures need to be implemented at managers at all levels and by local participants. This requires plain language, clearly issues and indicators, and measures at local, regional, national and European level. In order to allow these ecosystems to adapt all human stresses, including those caused by human uses, must be assessed and reduced.  Climate change requires an integrative and reiterative planning approach that involves strategic environmental assessment, integrated management of developments and monitoring of combined impacts.  

ENCORA Management Approaches and Strategies: 

ENCORA Management Approaches and Strategies Appropriate knowledge, research and monitoring technologies be used.    Integrated management address human uses of coast and marine resources and climate change in participatory ways that involve academic institutes, local communities, NGOs. Using eutrophification and tourism as an example, this requires reliable predictions, underpinned by consistent measurements and numerical modeling, informed understandings of the changes, and local and regional communications and management responses.

ENCORA Management Approaches and Strategies: 

ENCORA Management Approaches and Strategies Adaptive and mitigative measures: communications about risks and responses minimizing overall water uses, re-using and treatment of waste water, minimizing energy and carbon emissions, appropriate erosion and soft and hard coastal and beach defense measures, setbacks for roads and developments, retention of beaches, estuaries, and wetlands in natural states to enhance biodiversity, maintain ecosystem services and function as a natural defenses to flooding and storm events, non-geographical boundaries for ecosystems.

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Conclusions for ENCORA: Need to consider research on scientific impacts and take adaptive measures for climate change on coasts - and related terrestrial, watershed and marine areas- within EU member states and adjacent areas. The importance of relevant and enabling policies and implementing actions at the European, national and local level, and role of governments and public participation. Need to incorporate private and governmental actions in academic and scientific actions. Important to engaging the private sector for areas like sustainable tourism and recreation, agriculture, energy, fisheries, and navigation and shipping.

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Conclusions for ENCORA: There is the need to consider climate change in the context of human development, coastal & seascape integrity & fragmentation, and pollution. There is the need to consider geographical features: mountains, plateaus, estuaries, bays, watersheds and enclosed seas as special areas for biodiversity conservation and climate change, irrespective of national boundaries. Cooperation and sharing of data and information, best practises and practical solutions is required. Active involvement & engagement of academic institute and universities in collaboration with local industry, communities and organizations.  

Thank you: 

Thank you Magdalena Ariadne Kim Muir makmuir@ieels.com