A Step to the Future: A Step to the Future APEC Symposium on Foresighting Future Fuel Technology Chiangmai, Thailand November 2005 David Lamb Leader, Low Emission Vehicles Energy Transformed Flagship CSIRO Australia


The issues that will ‘drive’ future transport: The issues that will ‘drive’ future transport Oil’s not well Uncertainty about supply/security Uncertainty about sudden price change Link between fossil fuel and climate change


The issues that will ‘drive’ future transport: The issues that will ‘drive’ future transport What will drive us out of oil? Oil price? Emissions? Technology?


How important is Oil?: How important is Oil? Oil Consumption in Australia


The consumers: The consumers


Is the World Running out of Oil?: Is the World Running out of Oil? Source: http://www.oilcrisis.com/magoon/ Bureau of Transport & Regional Economics Report “Is the World Running Out of Oil?


Is the World Running out of Oil?: Is the World Running out of Oil? Source: http://www.oilcrisis.com/magoon/


Is the World Running out of Oil?: Is the World Running out of Oil? Not sure But not sure that it is not true Predictions that higher price would bring on new oil production have yet to prove true Economic impacts could be massive there are some short term things Australia could do – we have big reserves of natural gas and more land than most other countries.


Australia faces more evaporation + less rainfall: drier conditions: Australia faces more evaporation + less rainfall: drier conditions Generally less water available annually More intense droughts and fires, decreased river flow & quality


Sources of emissionsAustralia: Sources of emissions Australia 16% % GHG emissions from transport: Australia 16% USA 27% California 58%


Fuel consumption targets: Fuel consumption targets


Alternative Fuels: Alternative Fuels


Alternative Fuels: Alternative Fuels


Alternative Fuels: Alternative Fuels


Alternative Fuels: Alternative Fuels


Alternative Fuels: Alternative Fuels


Alternative Fuels: Alternative Fuels


Short term reduction in GHG: Short term reduction in GHG Improve rated fuel economy of new cars Reduce vehicle ‘in-use’ fuel consumption Reduce vehicle travel Increase use of alternative fuels Improve freight transport efficiency. [ with reduced reliance on oil ] -according to International Energy Agency


Freedom of choice and world’s cheapest oil: Freedom of choice and world’s cheapest oil


Slide20: Individual rights


Slide21: Style (image/configuration) Performance (image) Convenience (features) Operating cost Safety Fuel efficiency Environmental effect Today Values


Cost of technology improvements: Cost of technology improvements Source: Northeast States Centre for a Clean Air Future, U.S.A. CO2 g/km Diesel Advanced hybrid Gasoline Advanced hybrid Engine technology improvements


The Road to the Zero-emission Vehicle – Hydrogen Fuel Cells.: The Road to the Zero-emission Vehicle – Hydrogen Fuel Cells. Issues: Durability Cold start 3. Power density 4. Affordability 5. ‘Renewable’ Hydrogen 6. On-board H2 storage


How long will it take?: How long will it take? IEA: “A transition to a near-zero-emissions transportation system will likely take three or four decades….. Over an assumed fifty-year time horizon for a complete transition, the entire vehicle stock in IEA countries will be replaced at least two or three times.


Slide26: The Path to Zero-emission Vehicles 2005 2045


Slide27: Fuel cell cars & trucks with renewable hydrogen Fuel cell bus Hybrid car Battery/supercapacitor technology Fuel cell technology Vital for security/economic security Vital to reduce usage for climate change amelioration. Unlikely to withstand competition from other technology investment Path to very fuel-efficient and almost zero-emission transport All-electric car with small engine backup


Conclusions: Conclusions Oil-based future is uncertain Climate change is a vital and urgent issue Affordable fuel cell cars & trucks are a long way off Alternative fuels are needed for at least 20 years. Hybrids are a valuable contributor to reducing fuel use and emissions. Engines will likely become smaller and ‘top-up’ only. The all-electric car may answer all needs The transport dilemma is serious (but clean electrical energy is even more serious) A national roadmap for every country is vital


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