North Korea and the new strategic industries of the future: the case of ICT and tourism : North Korea and the new strategic industries of the future: the case of ICT and tourism Tim Beal Victoria University of Wellington


Overview: Overview Strategic industries of the future Geo-political context Tourism ROK DPRK ICT ROK DPRK Conclusion


Strategic Industries : ……..new motifs for economic growth will be developed as the nation advances into a knowledge-based economy.   First, infrastructure of information and telecommunication industries will be established, and new strategic industries of the future, such as culture and tourism, nurtured. In addition, industries in general will be transformed into ones suitable for the knowledge-based economy ROK Ministry of Finance and Economy, January 2001 Strategic Industries


ICT and Tourism: ICT and Tourism ICT – information and communication central to contemporary economies ‘New economy’ Tourism? Claimed to be NZ largest earner of foreign exchange


Contemporary International tourism: Contemporary International tourism 11 September events will have unknown and uneven impact ‘Korea's travel industry is reeling from the impact’ (Korea Herald 20 Sep) Chinese tourism has continued to rise Nevertheless, tourism has been and probably will continue to be major component of global economy


2000: 2000 World tourism grew 7.4% 698 million international arrivals Receipts of US$476 billion


Geopolitical context: Geopolitical context Collapse of Soviet Union plunged DPRK into economic crisis GDP halved, lack of electricity, fertilizers, spare parts… Still on US ‘terrorism list’ Despite condemning terrorism Effectively excludes it from loans from WB, ADB etc. Restraints on technology exports to DPRK


DPRK-ROK relations: DPRK-ROK relations Spirit of Pyongyang summit has faded Largely because of Bush administration Domestic opposition to ‘Sunshine policy ‘ (GNP, military?…) Unwise DPRK strategies Should outflank US/GNP via KDJ ROK Defence White Paper still describes DPRK as ‘main enemy’ US-ROK joint landing exercises


Current N-S relations: Current N-S relations Talks resumed in September but relations overshadowed by ‘terrorism issue’ Kim DJ under great pressure – star fading fast? Seoul has complied with US pressure Eg US has sent extra aircraft to ROK 22 Nov - Test of missile ‘able to hit virtually anywhere in the North’


Tourism: Tourism ROK is a small player, but Tourism is growing importance to ROK ROK experience can offer pointers/example to DPRK Joint ventures (eg border airport)


ROK in international tourism, 2001: ROK in international tourism, 2001


ROK in Asian tourism, 2001: ROK in Asian tourism, 2001


ROK tourism: ROK tourism Being close to Japan and China tourism could become ROK ‘mega industry of future’ Sports events have positive impact 2002 World Cup Beijing Olympics?


DPRK tourism: DPRK tourism Paradoxes Politics Kumgangsan Other destinations Prospects and problems


The paradox of DPRK tourism: The paradox of DPRK tourism DPRK is an ‘industrial economy’ (45% of GDP) but tourism as great a share of foreign earnings as Caribbean Tourism requires peace but still in ‘state of war’ with major actual and potential sources ROK, USA, Japan Negative international image Derives substantial earnings Has huge tourism potential


The Politics of DPRK tourism: The Politics of DPRK tourism Tourism originally not commercial but ‘winning friends and influencing people’ Example: essay competition run by korea-dpr.com


Politics underlies KGS: Politics underlies KGS North ‘is a noble national project which started and has been under way in reflection of the unanimous aspiration of all the fellow countrymen after national reconciliation and unity and the reunification of the country and the wishes of the South Koreans to visit Mt. Kumgang ‘ (KCNA)


South: South Both Hyundai and ROK Government have been driven by political considerations ROK tourists to KGS – not ‘just the sightseeing but that they could set their foot on the long forbidden half of motherland. For students in particular, the four-day tour is better than 100 classroom lectures about their nation and history’ (Korea Herald)


Sources and destinations: Sources and destinations ROK major source Mainly to KGS 425,715 Nov ’98 – Nov ‘01 China Sinuiju Rajin-Sonbong Europeans….Aus, NZers


Destinations: Destinations Kumgangsan Myohyangsan Paektusan Chilbosan Pyongyang Rajin-Songbong Kaesong Historical attraction Close to Seoul


Problems and prospects: Problems and prospects Geo-political situation Country image Inadequate infrastructure – electricity, roads, etc. Personnel But…great potential Marvellous scenery ‘unusual destination’ Hub of fastest growing tourism market in world Sports – World Cup, Olympics..


ICT: ICT ROK is one of most highly ‘wired’ countries in world Internet in hotel, at airport Date on connectivity uncertain but ROK comes out well by most surveys


% of population online, top countries and Asia, 2000: % of population online, top countries and Asia, 2000


Fig 5: Internet use and wealth, 2000: Fig 5: Internet use and wealth, 2000


Fig 6: Growth in Internet users in Asia/Pacific, by country, 1997-2000: Fig 6: Growth in Internet users in Asia/Pacific, by country, 1997-2000


Fig 7: E-readiness in major and Asian emerging markets: Fig 7: E-readiness in major and Asian emerging markets


DPRK?: DPRK?


The sky at night: The sky at night


ICT in DPRK: ICT in DPRK Hampered by Economic crisis of 1990s US-led sanctions Eg Wassenaar Arrangement bans export of 486 machines and above ICT has central place in economic strategy Compulsory in all secondary schools ‘The North's IT frenzy originates in Kim Jong Il’ Hardware and telecom infrastructure rudimentary


Computers: Computers Ministry of Electronic Industry Pyongyang factory produces Pentium and Celeron computers ‘Best school in North Korea using outdated computers’ Moranbong Korea Computer Center has 80 Pentiums, 500 researchers


Software: Software DPRK strong point Kim DJ’s entourage impressed Produces own software – Korean wp, speech recognition, translation… Joint ventures with ROK, Japanese and Chinese companies Creates software to order Niche in animation


Internet: Internet Backbone linking research centres, universities and government ministries Already? This year? International agencies in Pyongyang have satellite access Silibank just launched Shenyang DPRK, Chinese and Korean Chinese Commercial ISP aimed at foreign business (DPRK businesses ?)


Conclusion: Conclusion DPRK is far behind in tourism and ICT Both greatly affected by geo-political situation Have implications for local political order Both are vital to economic rehabilitation and growth Both have great potential but uncertain whether this potential will be realised


Watch this space: Watch this space http://www.vuw.ac.nz/~caplabtb/dprk/