9 Wheat

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Slide1: 

Wheat

Slide2: 

Kim’s web site for wheat market information agecon.okstate.edu/anderson

Slide3: 

The price of wheat on June 20, 2008 KWN7 $5.40 HRW basis -$0.40 Are there any questions? $5.00

Slide4: 

Talking Points Price & weather Argentina & Australia Wheat Stocks Plantings  ’08 production Use – domestic, exports & world Price

Slide5: 

Talking Points Price & weather

Slide6: 

KCBT nearby price 1.8 .429 1.9 .491

Slide7: 

KCBT Dec price

Slide10: 

Talking Points Price & weather Argentina & Australia

Argentina & Australia: 

Argentina & Australia Million Bushels 2006/07 2007/08 5-yr avg. Argentina 559 514 532 Australia 367 845 692

Slide12: 

Talking Points Price & weather Argentina & Australia Wheat Stocks

Slide13: 

Ending Stocks U.S. World 5-year average 2006/07 520 456 5,320 4,589 Million Bushels 2007/08 404 4,217

Slide14: 

Talking Points Price Wheat stocks Argentina & Australia Plantings & ’08 production

Corn: 

Corn

Soybeans : 

Soybeans

Slide17: 

HRW wheat production area

Corn: 

Corn

Slide19: 

SRW wheat production area

Soybeans : 

Soybeans

Other Spring Wheat excl. Durham: 

Other Spring Wheat excl. Durham

Durham : 

Durham

White Winter Wheat: 

White Winter Wheat

KCBT July ‘08: 

KCBT July ‘08 $5.79 -0.40 $5.19

Slide25: 

Seedings Class 5-year avg. ‘07 Std. Guess HRW 30.8 32.4 1.5 32.2 SRW 7.8 8.8 1.2 7.8 million acres Other Spr 14.1 13.9 1.5 13.5 Winter 42.9 44.5 2.4 44.3 Total 59.3 60.8 3.8 60.5

Slide26: 

Yield Class 5-year avg. ‘07 Std. HRW 36.9 31.4 4.3 SRW 55.5 62.2 4.1 Other Spr 38.5 39.3 4.1 Winter 43.5 41.3 2.6 43.5 Total 41.8 40.7 2.6 41.8 bushel/acre Guess 43.9 41.2

Slide27: 

Class 5-year avg. ‘07 Std. Guess million bushels Production HRW 897 948 178 827 SRW 364 360 55 354 Other Spr. 491 500 47 492 Durham 83.6 77 17 84 White 278 230 34 283 Total 2,106 2,114 258 2,150 2,005 2.35 2.16 2.12 1.80

Slide28: 

Production 5-year avg. ‘07 Std. Guess million bushels World 21,720 22,428 840 22,700 21.7 22.9 21.9 U.S. 2,106 2,114 258 2,200 2,005

Slide29: 

Talking Points Price Wheat stocks Argentina & Australia Plantings Use – domestic & export

Slide30: 

U.S. use 5-year average ‘07 Std. Guess 1,000 1050 80 Use Export Domestic 1,153 1,126 84 Total Use 2,152 2,276 134 1,165 2,173 million mushels 1,000 1,150 2,150

Slide31: 

World use 5-year average ‘07 Std. Guess million bushels 22,500 22,359 22,776 565 22,113

Slide32: 

Talking Points Price Wheat Stocks Argentina & Australia Plantings Use – Domestic & Exports Price

U.S. Wheat Supply and Use: 

U.S. Wheat Supply and Use Beginning stocks Production Supply, Total Exports Use, Total Ending Stocks Avg. farm price 460 2,115 2,635 1,075 2,265 410 $5.40 571 1,812 2,505 909 2,080 456 $4.26 million bushels USDA 07/08 USDA 06/07 1.19 bb

U.S. Wheat Supply and Use: 

U.S. Wheat Supply and Use Beginning stocks Production Supply, Total Exports Use, Total Ending Stocks Avg. farm price 410 2,150 2,660 1,025 2,150 485 million bushels Kim’s 08/09 460 2,115 2,635 1,075 2,265 410 $5.40 USDA 07/08

World Wheat Supply and Use: 

World Wheat Supply and Use Beginning stocks Production Supply, Total Use, Total Ending Stocks 4.22 22.50 26.72 22.50 4.22 million bushels Kim’s 08/09 4.59 22.43 27.02 22.80 4.22 USDA 07/08

Slide36: 

U.S. ending stocks & price 0.540 $3.40 $4.30 0.440 Av ES 0.63 Av Price $3.32

Slide37: 

U.S. ending stocks & price 0.540 $3.40 $4.30 0.440 Av ES 0.63 Av $ $3.32 $4.26 0.456

Slide38: 

0.540 $3.40 $4.30 0.440 Av ES 0.63 Av $ $3.32 $5.40 0.408 U.S. ending stocks & price

Slide39: 

KCBT July ‘07 Freeze Rain $4.70 -.40 $4.30

U.S. Wheat Supply and Use: 

U.S. Wheat Supply and Use Beginning stocks Production Supply, Total Exports Use, Total Ending Stocks Avg. farm price 410 2,150 2,660 1,025 2,150 485 $4.50 million bushels Kim’s 08/09 460 2,115 2,635 1,075 2,265 410 $5.40 USDA 07/08

Slide41: 

U.S. and world wheat stocks remain tight 520 m.b. ending stocks  $4.30 430 m.b. ending stocks  $5.00 Going into harvest, prices will be relatively high Foreign crop determine ’07/08 mkting yr trend Ethanol production changing market Important points