INFLUENZA PANDEMIC MODELS

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10 Influenza Pandemic Models:

10 Influenza Pandemic Models By Claude Penland, Associate of the Casualty Actuarial Society www.CatRisky.com

What are we doing?:

What are we doing? We will discuss some different types of influenza pandemic models. This is not intended to be a comprehensive look at the state of pandemic modeling, and instead is merely a discussion of some interesting flu pandemic models.

What is a Pandemic?:

What is a Pandemic? Pandemics are infectious disease epidemics that spread across a wide region. Recent pandemics include the flu pandemic of 2009 and the HIV pandemic. Historical pandemics have also included outbreaks of tuberculosis and smallpox.

1. Society of Actuaries:

1. Society of Actuaries The Society of Actuaries’ model evaluates the potential impact on the United States life insurance industry . Actuarial analysis looks at possible economic effects as well as potential excess insured mortality.

2. Pandemic Influenza Policy Model:

2. Pandemic Influenza Policy Model Military Medicine looks at a policy model for military public health officials. This Pandemic Influenza Policy Model (PIPM) is a collaborative computer modeling effort between the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory and U.S. Department of Defense. Incidentally, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s “Best Practices and Model Protocols” provides many interesting discussions of model inputs.

3. Risk Management Solutions:

3. Risk Management Solutions The model by a catastrophe risk modeling firm, Risk Management Solutions (RMS), supplies thousands of unique pandemic scenarios. These vary based on demographics, virus infectiousness, vaccine production and efficacy, lethality of virus and pandemic lifecycle. Additional information is available at “Managing Influenza Pandemic Risk” .

4. FluTE :

4. FluTE FluTE is an open source model. The model is calibrated so that outcomes are consistent with the 2009 pandemic A(H1N1) and 1957/1958 Asian A(H2N2) influenza viruses.

5. Milliman :

5. Milliman Milliman, a consulting actuary, has modeled pandemics so that they may price mortality catastrophe bonds. It is an actuarial model based on a frequency and severity approach.

6. Epidemic Simulation System :

6. Epidemic Simulation System The National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC), which is at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, has the Epidemic Simulation System (EpiSimS). EpiSimS models the U.S. as fifteen regions. Each region is composed of around 20 million synthetic individuals.

7. INFORMS Simulation Society :

7. INFORMS Simulation Society At the INFORMS Simulation Society Winter Conference of 2009, a paper was presented on a simulation model for pandemic preparedness planning. The paper presents a geospatial and temporal disease spread model for flu pandemics with particular attention paid to school closings.

8. Global Epidemic Model :

8. Global Epidemic Model The Global Epidemic Model (GEM) enables testing of intervention strategies. It uses uses population data and airline travel data to create an air travel network among the major metropolitan areas of the world. It then models the course of the potential epidemic as it spreads around the world.

9. VirSim:

9. VirSim VirSim was developed to help support policy making. Governments can decide on intervention strategies, and lost work and hospitalization effects on society are documented.

10. University of South Florida:

10. University of South Florida The University of South Florida’s model performs simulations for development of dynamic mitigation strategies.

Other Models:

Other Models Some other models include Georgia Tech’s , The University of Western Australia’s , a Biological Model for Influenza Transmission , a model of Japan and an Avian-human influenza epidemic model .

Other Sources:

Other Sources Additional sources are PandemicSimulation.com , a pandemic simulation community website, NPR , The Scientist and MAA . See www.CatRisky.com for catastrophe risk trends and news. Thank you!

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