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Edit Comment Close Premium member Presentation Transcript Introduction and Applications: Introduction and Applications The World BankThe HDM-4 Model: The HDM-4 Model Analytical tool for engineering and economic assessment of - road investments and maintenance - transport pricing and regulation Physical and economic relationships derived from extensive research on road deterioration, the effects of maintenance activities, and vehicle operation and user costsInternational Collaboration: International Collaboration 1969-1995 – HDM-III - Collaborative international studies World Bank & MIT, LCPC, TRRL, UNDP - Governments of Kenya, Brazil, Caribbean, India - $20 million data collection in 4 field studies 1995-2005 – HDM-4 version 1.0 to 1.3 - International sponsors, PIARC - Redesign of functions and software - Focus on road agency usage 2006-> HDM-4 version 2.0 - HDMGlobal International Consortium responsible for management as sales HDM-4 International Collaboration: HDM-4 International Collaboration SNRA SweRoad VTI ODA The University of Birmingham ADB N D Lea Int. IKRAM FICEM ICH (Chile) Catholic Univ. Overseas Development Administration (ODA) Asian Development Bank (ADB) Swedish National Road Administration (SNRA) Inter-American Federation on Cement Producers (FICEM) The World Bank (IBRD) The World Road Association (PIARC) Steering Committee (World Bank) Secretariat The University of Birmingham SponsorsHDM-4 Version 1.0 to 1.3 Implementation Coordination: HDM-4 Version 1.0 to 1.3 Implementation Coordination In 1998 The World Road Association (PIARC) took responsibility for coordinating the international implementation of the Highway Development and Management System (HDM-4) PIARC Web: http://hdm4.piarc.org Email: firstname.lastname@example.org Fax: 33-1+49 00 02 02 HDM-4 Version 2.0HDMGlobal Management: HDM-4 Version 2.0 HDMGlobal Management HDMGlobal is an international consortium of academic and consultancy companies that have formed a partnership for the future management of HDM 4. This will be a five-year concession awarded by PIARC commencing June 2005 with exclusive rights for its distribution. At the center of consortium is the Highway Management Research Group a UK based association of the University of Birmingham, Atkins and Scott Wilson in partnership with; TRL Ltd also of the UK, ARRB Transport Research Ltd from Australia, ENPC and Scetauroute from France, and ICH of Chile. HDM-4 Sales: HDM-4 Sales The HDM4Global distributor role is to: sell the software license and deliver HDM-4 on CD-ROM deliver updates on disk or by internet download provide first contact support Website: http://civ-hrg.bham.ac.uk/isohdm/ E-mail: email@example.com or firstname.lastname@example.org. The HDM-4 Products on CD ROM: The HDM-4 Products on CD ROM HDM-4 software Case study data sets HDM Series documentsHDM-4 Series Collection: HDM-4 Series CollectionHDM-4 Version 2.0Licenses Prices (US$): HDM-4 Version 2.0 Licenses Prices (US$) Single License 3,000 2,000 Four Pack or more 2,550 Five Pack or more 2,400 Developing Standard Countries* * per capita GNI of less than USD3,255 equivalent per yearMinimum System Requirements: Minimum System Requirements Pentium P100 processor (or equivalent) 32MB of RAM 30MB of hard disk space (for program and documentation) 50MB of hard disk space (for storage of run-data) Windows 95/98 or NT 4 with Service Pack 6a installed HDM-4 Technical Improvements: HDM-4 Technical Improvements Pavements Wider range of flexible pavements Rigid pavements More maintenance types Drainage effects Freezing climates effects Road Users New vehicle types Characteristics of Modern Vehicles Non-motorized traffic Congestion effects Accidents Emissions & Energy consumptionHDM-4 Software Improvements: HDM-4 Software Improvements Windows 95/98/NT Environment Easy to use Different levels of input data Three Application Modules Project Evaluation Network Programme Evaluation Network Strategic Planning Evaluation Better interface with Pavement Management SystemsThe HDM Computer Programs: The HDM Computer Programs HCM 1970 HDM-II 1975 HDM-III 1985 Fortran HDM Manager 1.0 1991 Clipper / DOS HDM Manager 2.0 1993 HDM Manager 3.0 1995 HDM Manager 3.2 1999 HDM-III PC 1989 HDM-Q PC 1995 Mainframe Limited Distribution HDM-4 1.0 2000 Windows 95/98/NT HDM-4 1.3 2002 HDM-4 2.0 2006Comparison of Road Agency Alternatives: Comparison of Road Agency Alternatives Standards / Alternatives Policies / Strategies Norms / Options Paved road alternatives, e.g.: - overlay at specified condition or time - reseal first and overlay later - reconstruct at specified condition or time - do nothing or do minimum (patching) - widen pavement at specified time or V/C - improve alignment or add lane Unpaved road alternatives, e.g.: - grading every 180 days - upgrade to paved standard at time or condition Evaluation of Alternatives: Evaluation of Alternatives Economic evaluation Technical evaluation Institutional evaluation Financial evaluation Commercial evaluation Social evaluation Environmental evaluationTransport Benefits: Transport Benefits Reduce vehicle operating cost Savings in time of passengers and cargo Reduction of accidents Stimulate regional development Increase the comfort and convenience Better national integration National security Greater self-sufficiency Equal distribution of income Prestige of the countryThe Beginning, 1969: The Beginning, 1969 More than 10,000 million dollars are spent on the highway sector each year in developing countries. The cost borne by the road-using public for vehicle operation are typically 8 to 10 times greater In Europe and North America: - high traffic volumes - high values attached to travel time savings - relatively abundant capital resources In developing countries: - traffic levels often much lower - values given to travel time savings are far lower - acute shortage of financial resourcesPavement Management Approaches: Pavement Management Approaches Crisis-oriented approach highway facilities are operated with little or no maintenance until obstructive failure occurs that needs extensive restoration and reconstruction work Condition-responsive/financial approach physical standards are set in relation to: a) perceived technical requirements, b) acceptable service levels, and c) received budget Technical-economic efficiency approach functional and technical standards are selected to minimize total road transport costs to society. Basis for Investment Decisions – Technical-economic Efficiency: Basis for Investment Decisions – Technical-economic Efficiency Terminal Life R.L. Current Condition Worst First? Overall Index - Current Condition - Deterioration Prediction Remaining Service Life - Current Condition - Deterioration Prediction - Maintenance Effects - Vehicle Operating Costs Benefits to Society? Condition Condition Condition Terminal Life or Condition Limit?Total Society Costs: Total Society Costs Construction Maintenance Vehicle operation Passenger and cargo time Accidents ROAD AGENCY COSTS ROAD USER COSTS = +Total Society Costs: Total Society Costs Total Society Costs Improve Standard Road Agency Costs Road User CostsMinimizing Consumption of Resources: Minimizing Consumption of Resources Consumption of Resources liters m3 hours X Unit Costs = Total Society CostsFinancial & Economic Unit Costs: Financial & Economic Unit Costs Financial Prices Market Prices Economic Prices Shadow Prices Social Prices Do not reflect the real scarcity value of the inputs Developing Countries - Government Controls Taxes Subsidies Regulations - Rapid Inflation - Overvaluation of Domestic CurrencyPrimary Features of HDM-4: Primary Features of HDM-4 Simulates deterioration and maintenance of paved and unpaved roads, in physical condition and quantities, for strategies defined by the user Simulates road user costs (speeds and consumption of physical resources) Determines time-streams of road agency, road user costs, and net benefits Computes economic indicators Road User Costs Model: Road User Costs Model Fuel & Lubricants Tire Maintenance Parts & Labor Crew Time Depreciation & Interest Passenger & cargo time SPEED COMPSUMPTIONPaved Road Deterioration Model: Paved Road Deterioration Model Cracking Ravelling Potholing Rutting RoughnessVehicle Operating Costs: Vehicle Operating CostsCosts-shares Under Optimal Maintenance: Costs-shares Under Optimal Maintenance 50 veh/day 300 veh/day 5000 veh/day Agency Costs Agency Costs Agency Costs User Costs User Costs User CostsHDM-4 Limitations: HDM-4 Limitations The model accepts but does not perform network traffic assignment Limited estimation of environmental impacts such as air or noise pollution, and not costed internally Only partially applicable to urban traffic conditions – through acceleration variance Option for evaluating cement blocks and cobblestone pavements not yet implementedHDM-4 Applications: HDM-4 Applications Project Justification Program Formulation Maintenance Needs Forecasting Network Analysis Technical Standards Vehicle PoliciesProject Justification: Project Justification A Gravel Road Proposed Project - Upgrade the road to a paved standard - After the upgrading, routine maintenance, patching 100% of the potholes, and resealing when damaged area > 20%Comparison of Alternatives: Comparison of Alternatives Evaluation Period = 20 years Discount rate = 12.00 % Internal Construction Road Net Rate of Length Maintenance User Total Present Return (km) Alt Costs Costs Costs Value (%) 100.0 BASE 2.71 26.7 29.4 PROJ 9.28 17.0 26.2 3.2 17.1 Is the project economically justified?Program Formulation: Program Formulation A Gravel Road - Grading every 180 days -Grading every 90 days - Grading every 60 days - Grading every 30 days - Grading every 15 days - Grading every 7 days - Upgrade in 2001 - Upgrade in 2002 - Upgrade in 2003 - Upgrade in 2004Project Economic Efficiency Frontier: 15 Days 180 Days 90 Days 60 Days 30 Days 7 Days 2004 2003 2002 2001 Project Economic Efficiency Frontier Which is the optimal strategy? upgradingMaintenance Needs Forecasting: Maintenance Needs Forecasting A Paved Road in Good Condition - Routine Maintenance Reconstruction when IRI > 11.0 - Routine Maintenance Patching 100% of potholes Reconstruction when IRI > 11.0 - Routine Maintenance Patching 100% of potholes 12 mm Resealing when damage is > 30% Reconstruction when IRI > 11.0 - Routine Maintenance Patching 100% of potholes 4 cm overlay when IRI is > 4.0 - Routine Maintenance Patching 100% of potholes 8 cm overlay when IRI is > 4.0Roughness Progression: Roughness ProgressionEfficiency Frontier: Efficiency Frontier BASE Patch 4 cm 12 mm 8 cm What will be the future maintenance needs?Network Analysis: Network Analysis A Road Network - What are the resources needed to maintain and develop the network? - How should the agency allocate the resources needed? - What program should be implemented in case of budgetary constraints?Budgetary Constraints: Budgetary Constraints Road Network G F P L M H A.C. Resource Constraints Optimal Program under Budgetary Constraints Program without Budgetary Constraints Optimization ModuleDiagnostic of the Network Condition: Diagnostic of the Network ConditionDiagnostic of Road User Costs: Diagnostic of Road User CostsDiagnostic of Agency Costs: Diagnostic of Agency CostsDiagnostic of Road Classes: Diagnostic of Road ClassesSolution Catalog per Budget Level: Solution Catalog per Budget LevelConsequences to Society: Consequences to SocietyConsequences to the Network: Consequences to the NetworkConsequences to the Agency: Consequences to the AgencyConsequences to the Users: Consequences to the UsersSupport Definition of Budget Level: Support Definition of Budget LevelSupport for Allocation of Resources: Support for Allocation of ResourcesSupport for Programming of Works: Support for Programming of WorksTechnical Standards: Technical Standards 400 300 200 What is the optimal traffic threshold for paving?Vehicle Policies: Vehicle Policies How much road damage is caused by trucks? 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