Socioecon Update

Socioeconomic Analysis Update: 

Socioeconomic Analysis Update May 9, 2007 Scientific, Technical and Modeling Peer Review Advisory Group

Health Effect of Criteria Pollutants: 

Health Effect of Criteria Pollutants

PM2.5 Health Benefit: 

PM2.5 Health Benefit Used Future AQ Modeling Data Adjusted to 2005 Monitoring Data Veronoi Neighbor Averaging PM2.5 Health Benefit in 2014 = $9 Billion Average Annual All Quantified Benefit = $14 Billion

Adjustment for PM2.5: 

Adjustment for PM2.5 Preliminary Draft analysis used raw difference in future year model predicted concentrations Base year PM2.5 simulations tended to over predict in coastal areas, hence future year projections should be also over predicted Revised analysis back to RRF based projection of 2005 air quality data

Future Socioeconomic Analysis: 

Future Socioeconomic Analysis Revise Costs of Two Measures and Add One Control Measure Re-assess Ozone Benefit with Revised 2005 Ozone Monitoring Data Revised RRFs by Setting Low Levels of Modeling Data at 30 ppb

Evaluation of the Ozone RRFs: 

Evaluation of the Ozone RRFs Reviewed the assumption that 19 days adequately representative of full year Used ozone simulated from PM2.5 to generate alternate RRF’s for each quarter Some seasonal bias - Winter Quarter < 10 hour sunlight - Summer Quarter > 14 hours sunlight Future year ozone maximum shifts 1-2 hours earlier

Diurnal RRF Distribution from Annual PM2.5 Simulations: 

Diurnal RRF Distribution from Annual PM2.5 Simulations Q1-Black Q2- Pink Q3 – Yellow Q4-Blue

Examination of Ozone SImulations: 

Examination of Ozone SImulations Examined 2005 and 2023 ozone simulations 2005: Nighttime/early morning ozone titration 2023: Nigthtime/early morning ozone capped at background levels (limited titration) Impact to analysis: over projection of nighttime ozone when RRF is applied

Adjustment to Ozone Impact: 

Adjustment to Ozone Impact Reset minimum threshold for allowing RRF calculations - previous threshold 10 ppb - revised threshold 30 ppb (less than boundary concentrations 40 ppb) Results: - lower nighttime RRFs - elimination of exaggerated ozone projections - 30 ppb conservative assumption

Expected Outcome of Adjustment: 

Expected Outcome of Adjustment Reduction in 2023 ozone increase - more limited in coastal areas - smaller change between projected baseline and controlled scenarios Corrections to 2005 base ozone air quality smoothes basin gradient