logging in or signing up Ch 10 Carmina Download Post to : URL : Related Presentations : Share Add to Flag Embed Email Send to Blogs and Networks Add to Channel Uploaded from authorPOINTLite Insert YouTube videos in PowerPont slides with aS Desktop Copy embed code: (To copy code, click on the text box) Embed: URL: Thumbnail: WordPress Embed Customize Embed The presentation is successfully added In Your Favorites. Views: 490 Category: Education License: All Rights Reserved Like it (0) Dislike it (0) Added: January 09, 2008 This Presentation is Public Favorites: 0 Presentation Description No description available. Comments Posting comment... Premium member Presentation Transcript Technical Forecasting: Technical Forecasting Week 13 Ch. 10: Judgmental Forecasting MethodsA Survey of Techniques: A Survey of Techniques Delphi Cohort Expected value Analogy Environment monitoring ScenariosDelphi Process: Delphi Process Group of experts Facilitator prepares questions (<25) Anonymous responses and comments Median and quartile statistics Multiple rounds Results often convergeDelphi: Delphi Advantages No need for historical data Take advantage of group of experts Somewhat flexible Disadvantages Experts don’t always follow the rules People can be overly influenced by opinions of othersCohort Forecasting: Cohort Forecasting A group of individuals with a common age or class membership Tend to progress together Retention (%) Inflow (%) Outflow (%) Population Time n Population Time n+1 Outflow Inflow RetainedExample – IE Class Size: Example – IE Class Size Few declare IE on entry (<20) Junior year 30-40 Graduate 25-35 Losses Quit Dismissed Transfer to other programs/schools Gains Transfer from other programs Transfer from other schools Enter with advanced standingCohort Forecasting: Cohort Forecasting Advantages Works well if the model fits Information-rich planning aid Disadvantages Only fits specific situations Need considerable data to determine percentages accurately Individuals progress through the system at different ratesExpected Value: Expected Value Expected outcome Based on probabilities of all possibilities “If we did this a thousand times, the average would be…” Example: Example Powerball winnings $10,000,000 (1/120,000,000) $100,000 (1/3,000,000) $5,000 (1/100,000) $100 (1/12,250) $7 (1/190) $4 (1/124) $3 (1/70) Expected Value: Expected Value Advantages Organized procedure Numerical calculation Disadvantages Usually based on estimates False accuracy Calculated result may not be any one possibilityForecast by Analogy: Forecast by Analogy Identify analogous historical situation Adjust Similarities Differences Consider all aspectsAspects of an Analogy: Aspects of an Analogy Technological Economic Political Social Cultural Ethical EcologicalAnalogy Example: Mars Mission vs. Moon Mission: Analogy Example: Mars Mission vs. Moon Mission Technological Economic Political Social Cultural Ethical EcologicalAnalogy: Analogy Advantages Works well when relevant analogy exists New product introduction No need for data on current situation Disadvantages Appropriate analogy may not exist Differences difficult to estimateEnvironment Monitoring: Environment Monitoring Identify enabling technologies and events Breakthroughs Patents Monitor them Based on their occurrence, forecast your eventExample: Landing a person on Mars requires…: Example: Landing a person on Mars requires… Technological Economic Political Social Cultural Ethical Ecological Environment Monitoring: Environment Monitoring Advantages Logical analysis process Can be used in a normative way Disadvantages Imprecise No way of knowing when you will have a forecastScenario Writing: Scenario Writing Script describing possible future events Best (optimistic) case Worst (pessimistic) case Most (realistic) likely case Logical sequence of events Cause-effect relationships Decision points Time line Scenario – Mars Mission: Scenario – Mars Mission Time line of critical developments Best/worst/most likely Decision points Plot development Dramatic presentationScenarios: Scenarios Advantages Combine many sources of information and/or forecasts Minimum need for historical information Effective to present (story or skit) Disadvantages Rely on imprecise estimates Require more imagination than most forecastsJudgmental Method Summary: Judgmental Method Summary Work well when traditional time-series data is not available Combine many sources and types of information Enable creative or dramatic presentation You do not have the permission to view this presentation. In order to view it, please contact the author of the presentation.
Ch 10 Carmina Download Post to : URL : Related Presentations : Share Add to Flag Embed Email Send to Blogs and Networks Add to Channel Uploaded from authorPOINTLite Insert YouTube videos in PowerPont slides with aS Desktop Copy embed code: (To copy code, click on the text box) Embed: URL: Thumbnail: WordPress Embed Customize Embed The presentation is successfully added In Your Favorites. Views: 490 Category: Education License: All Rights Reserved Like it (0) Dislike it (0) Added: January 09, 2008 This Presentation is Public Favorites: 0 Presentation Description No description available. Comments Posting comment... Premium member Presentation Transcript Technical Forecasting: Technical Forecasting Week 13 Ch. 10: Judgmental Forecasting MethodsA Survey of Techniques: A Survey of Techniques Delphi Cohort Expected value Analogy Environment monitoring ScenariosDelphi Process: Delphi Process Group of experts Facilitator prepares questions (<25) Anonymous responses and comments Median and quartile statistics Multiple rounds Results often convergeDelphi: Delphi Advantages No need for historical data Take advantage of group of experts Somewhat flexible Disadvantages Experts don’t always follow the rules People can be overly influenced by opinions of othersCohort Forecasting: Cohort Forecasting A group of individuals with a common age or class membership Tend to progress together Retention (%) Inflow (%) Outflow (%) Population Time n Population Time n+1 Outflow Inflow RetainedExample – IE Class Size: Example – IE Class Size Few declare IE on entry (<20) Junior year 30-40 Graduate 25-35 Losses Quit Dismissed Transfer to other programs/schools Gains Transfer from other programs Transfer from other schools Enter with advanced standingCohort Forecasting: Cohort Forecasting Advantages Works well if the model fits Information-rich planning aid Disadvantages Only fits specific situations Need considerable data to determine percentages accurately Individuals progress through the system at different ratesExpected Value: Expected Value Expected outcome Based on probabilities of all possibilities “If we did this a thousand times, the average would be…” Example: Example Powerball winnings $10,000,000 (1/120,000,000) $100,000 (1/3,000,000) $5,000 (1/100,000) $100 (1/12,250) $7 (1/190) $4 (1/124) $3 (1/70) Expected Value: Expected Value Advantages Organized procedure Numerical calculation Disadvantages Usually based on estimates False accuracy Calculated result may not be any one possibilityForecast by Analogy: Forecast by Analogy Identify analogous historical situation Adjust Similarities Differences Consider all aspectsAspects of an Analogy: Aspects of an Analogy Technological Economic Political Social Cultural Ethical EcologicalAnalogy Example: Mars Mission vs. Moon Mission: Analogy Example: Mars Mission vs. Moon Mission Technological Economic Political Social Cultural Ethical EcologicalAnalogy: Analogy Advantages Works well when relevant analogy exists New product introduction No need for data on current situation Disadvantages Appropriate analogy may not exist Differences difficult to estimateEnvironment Monitoring: Environment Monitoring Identify enabling technologies and events Breakthroughs Patents Monitor them Based on their occurrence, forecast your eventExample: Landing a person on Mars requires…: Example: Landing a person on Mars requires… Technological Economic Political Social Cultural Ethical Ecological Environment Monitoring: Environment Monitoring Advantages Logical analysis process Can be used in a normative way Disadvantages Imprecise No way of knowing when you will have a forecastScenario Writing: Scenario Writing Script describing possible future events Best (optimistic) case Worst (pessimistic) case Most (realistic) likely case Logical sequence of events Cause-effect relationships Decision points Time line Scenario – Mars Mission: Scenario – Mars Mission Time line of critical developments Best/worst/most likely Decision points Plot development Dramatic presentationScenarios: Scenarios Advantages Combine many sources of information and/or forecasts Minimum need for historical information Effective to present (story or skit) Disadvantages Rely on imprecise estimates Require more imagination than most forecastsJudgmental Method Summary: Judgmental Method Summary Work well when traditional time-series data is not available Combine many sources and types of information Enable creative or dramatic presentation