Mobility, Motorization and Income: Does Urban Growth Mean More Transport? : Mobility, Motorization and Income: Does Urban Growth Mean More Transport?
Etienne HENRY
The French Research Institute for Development
World Bank Transport Forum 2000
Washington DC 04/10/00
Three Universal Precepts: : Three Universal Precepts: Mobility rates (or daily urban travels as measured by household surveys), in southern cities, increase with the urban growth
Motorized modes (and increasing car ownership) improve travelers urban transport conditions, as demonstrated in northern countries
Income growth should go hand in hand with urbanization and demographic transition, thus reducing transportation issues in emerging cities If proven, would the empirical observations suggest any transport action and benefits?
São Paulo century’s urban growth : São Paulo century’s urban growth
Appraisals of Mobility Trends Give Surprising Results… : Appraisals of Mobility Trends Give Surprising Results… Daily travel rates seem to stagnate or decline within the last decades
The 4 last origin-destination surveys carried out in São Paulo show an actual decrease in trip rates since the 1980s
This decreasing trend relates to all modes of travel, despite improvements in the overall transport sector, in average income, and in urbanization
São Paulo Public Road Transport Trends Since 1950 (Population, Buses, Carriers, Municipality) : São Paulo Public Road Transport Trends Since 1950 (Population, Buses, Carriers, Municipality)
EH &SZ: 151 Bus supply (25.000 vehicles in the RMSP), increased then decreased quicker than population
Efficient private firms (30 hold by 3 groups) declined with the public transport crisis
They recovered the units introduced by the public operator when privatized (1996), after
50 years of municipal providing intervention
New competition comes from the tolerated minibus sector (about 15.000)
São Paulo 1967-1997: Transport and Road Supply Crisis : São Paulo 1967-1997: Transport and Road Supply Crisis Bus supply stopped growing in absolute and relative terms
Car fleet, comparable with bus in 1967, overpasses it 3 times in 1997
Thus, travel rates increased till 1977, and then fell down
Demand factors may explain this evolution
Public transport crisis, like in NA and EU? EH, CMSP, IBGE & OnibuLis surveys data
Paris Vs. São Paulo: Individual Motorization Different Trends : Paris Vs. São Paulo: Individual Motorization Different Trends Standard life cycle profiles generations 1942-1951:
in Paris, young people own a vehicle early (Peak: 80% at age 43)
in São Paulo, (1) less owners; (2) ownership later (Peak: 60% at age 53)
JPH & JLM, from DREIF & CMSP surveys Île de France 1992 Grande São Paulo 1997
10.930 Million inhabitants 16.583
4.05 Million cars 2.85
+79.900 +2.4 % Cars/year 70s-90s + 76.900 +3.9 %
+1.40 +3 % Million veh. km/year +1.67 +5 %
São Paulo 1967-1997: RMSP Modal Split Trends : São Paulo 1967-1997: RMSP Modal Split Trends EH & JPH, from CMSP OD surveys data Transport demand equalizes increase of population:
- bus decreases
- car increases
- rail stops growing
- 2 wheels stagnates
Paris Vs. São Paulo: Car Ownership Spatial Differencies : Paris Vs. São Paulo: Car Ownership Spatial Differencies Generations 1946-1950 (IDF) and 1942-1951 (GSP)
in the cities, 3 zones of density/activities/infrastructure:center, outskirts, suburbs
Paris: self-motorization is lower in city center; higher in outskirts and growing in suburbs
São Paulo: motorization is higher in the main city, where new generations are more motorized; growing in outskirts; and low in poor suburbs
JPH & JLM, from DREIF & CMSP surveys
São Paulo 1967-97: : Public Vs. Private Travel Modes : São Paulo 1967-97: : Public Vs. Private Travel Modes EH, from CMSP OD surveys data Private transport modes increase slower than public ones fall
Rail modes become more important
Semi-public modes can be sub-estimated
Survey data do not consider pluri-modal travels
São Paulo 1967-1997: Mobility Trend Indicators : São Paulo 1967-1997: Mobility Trend Indicators EH & JPH, from CMSP OD surveys data
Why Has Mobility Stagnated? : Why Has Mobility Stagnated? Other than empirical urbanization/transport indicators, behavior patterns could also explain the gaps between growth and mobility, i.e.,
Emerging demographic transition (urban, gender, age)
Economic urban contrasts (self-employment, job/house links, rich/poor)
Sociological patterns and way of life (shopping centers, congestion, insecurity, telecommunications)
Inaccessibility to alternative urban activities (lack, violence)
Family life and social barriers in the mega-cities may refrain travel practices
São Paulo 1977/87/97: Family Diary Travel Rates Decline per Quartile of Income : Trips/day always 3 time higher in upper income families than in lower ones (dualism)
Smaller variation for lower income and mid-income families (captivity)
Bigger decrease of family trip rate with the wealthiest households (individualism) São Paulo 1977/87/97: Family Diary Travel Rates Decline per Quartile of Income EH & JPH, from CMSP OD surveys data
São Paulo 1977/87/97: Personal Travel Rates Decline per Quartile of Family Income : Decrease of 0,27 trips/day/person 1977-1997 (all groups)
Higher decrease in individual trip rate 1977-87 (crisis?)
For wealthier population, higher decrease between 1987 & 1997 (behavioral?) São Paulo 1977/87/97: Personal Travel Rates Decline per Quartile of Family Income EH & JPH, from CMSP OD surveys data
São Paulo 1977/87/97: Family Daily Traveled Time Modal Split by Income Quartile : São Paulo 1977/87/97: Family Daily Traveled Time Modal Split by Income Quartile EH & JPH, from CMSP OD surveys data quartile 1 quartile 2 quartile 3 quartile 4
Paris Vs. São Paulo: Social Differenciation of Car Ownership : Paris Vs. São Paulo: Social Differenciation of Car Ownership Standard life cycle profiles generations 1942-1951
Paris: gap between the lowest income quartile and others; more car owners among the young
São Paulo: big gap between highest quartile and others; elder more motorized for the lower 50% household heads
JPH & JLM, from DREIF & CMSP surveys
São Paulo 1977/87/97: Individual Traveled Time Modal Split by Family Income Quartile : São Paulo 1977/87/97: Individual Traveled Time Modal Split by Family Income Quartile EH & JPH, from CMSP OD surveys data
São Paulo 1977/87/97: Decreasing Travel Time Budget and Daily Run Distances : Reduction in the travel time budget can be explained either by better transport or by a deterioration of urban accessibility
Without the increase in daily traveled distance, families seem to live closer to their activities while individual trips fluctuate São Paulo 1977/87/97: Decreasing Travel Time Budget and Daily Run Distances EH & JPH, from CMSP OD surveys data
São Paulo 1977/87/97: Daily Traveled Distance Modal Split by Family Income Quartile : São Paulo 1977/87/97: Daily Traveled Distance Modal Split by Family Income Quartile EH & JPH, from CMSP OD surveys data
What Are The Lessons? : What Are The Lessons? Common trends in emerging mega-cities indicate rare impacts of new city life patterns in fragmented social and space contexts
The Latin-American urbanization highlights great specificity and differences, in front of common urban system crisis
Over-reliability on individual modes, i.e., car ownership for the upper income households, and motorized or non-mechanized trips for the lower income ones, accentuates the needs and crisis of the transport system
Enclosed communities and opposite behavioral patterns cross over the whole society
São Paulo Mobility Trends Compared with Mexico and Buenos Aires Modal Split Appraisals : São Paulo Mobility Trends Compared with Mexico and Buenos Aires Modal Split Appraisals EH, from OD survey data: CMSP 1967, 77, 87, 97; DDF-EM 83, INEG 94I; DCF-EPTRM 70, actu 92
Compared Mobility Trends in 3 Latin-American Mega-Cities : Compared Mobility Trends in 3 Latin-American Mega-Cities EH, from OD survey data: CMSP 1967, 77, 87, 97; DDF-EM 83, INEG 94I; DCF-EPTRM 70, actu 92
Motorized Trips Modal Split in 8 Latin American Cities : Motorized Trips Modal Split in 8 Latin American Cities EH, from OD survey data: INEGI; DCF; CMSP; EMTU; BHTrans; MLH; PMV
Forward : Forward When urban growth does not secure increased mobility conditions, transportation becomes a real governance problem
Productive re-structuration, redistribution of activities in the urban space, employment opportunities dissemination, major speed travel conditions, introduce new linkages housing/transport
If lower income families remain constrained with captive travel obligations, medium and high income groups can reduce their trips and experiment a “gated urban life”
More attention must be paid to a scientific approach of mobility, beginning with cross OD surveys analysis where they exist
Guideline for Urban Transport There is no mechanical effect, therefore : Guideline for Urban Transport There is no mechanical effect, therefore mobility requires:
accessibility
development
sociability
RESEARCH
should be a powerful arm to avoid misunderstanding and few effective actions
Motorization and Mobility Contrasts in Mega-Cities Contrastes de la motorización y de la movilidad en las megápolis Contrastes de la motorisation et de la mobilité dans les mégapoles : Motorization and Mobility Contrasts in Mega-Cities Contrastes de la motorización y de la movilidad en las megápolis Contrastes de la motorisation et de la mobilité dans les mégapoles
Etienne HENRY
The French Research Institute for Development
Codatu IX international transport conference
Mexico City 04/13/00