wac2004ronblum

Trends in the Automotive Industry, Global Production Chains & Challenges for Unions: 

Trends in the Automotive Industry, Global Production Chains & Challenges for Unions Ron Blum IMF Auto Department World Auto Council June 8-10, 2004 Dearborn, USA

The Principal Points: 

The Principal Points World Economic Outlook Auto Industry Trends Challenges for Trade Unions Trade union strategies & responses

The Principal Points: 

The Principal Points World Economic Outlook Auto Industry Trends Challenges for Trade Unions Trade union strategies & responses

World GDP Growth2002-2003 actual, 2004-2005 forecast (as of April 2004)SOURCE: International Monetary Fund: 

World GDP Growth 2002-2003 actual, 2004-2005 forecast (as of April 2004) SOURCE: International Monetary Fund

Global recovery broadens, but Monetary Fund says “ risks remain ”: 

Global recovery broadens, but Monetary Fund says “ risks remain ” Continued geopolitical uncertainties, including war and turmoil in the Middle East, threats of terrorism Higher and more volatile oil prices Rising interest rates in industrial countries that could slow economic activity Imbalances in global economy trading system, with record U.S. trade deficits

Other reasons for concern noted by Monetary Fund…: 

Other reasons for concern noted by Monetary Fund… Exchange rate shifts could send dollar dropping, possibly sharply Concerns about deflation have lessened but still exists Possible bubble in residential property prices Under-utilized capacity remains Vulnerabilities related to corporate corruption and inadequate governance

The Principal Points: 

The Principal Points World Economic Outlook Auto Industry Trends Challenges for Trade Unions Trade union strategies & responses

World Vehicle Sales by Region1997-2003, (1000 units): 

World Vehicle Sales by Region 1997-2003, (1000 units)

Vehicle Sales by Region1997-2003, (1000 units): 

Vehicle Sales by Region 1997-2003, (1000 units)

World Vehicle Production by Region1997-2003, (1000 units): 

World Vehicle Production by Region 1997-2003, (1000 units)

Vehicle Production by Region1997-2003, (1000 units): 

Vehicle Production by Region 1997-2003, (1000 units)

Regional Production & Sales2003 preliminary (1000 units): 

Regional Production & Sales 2003 preliminary (1000 units)

Trend in Industry Employment, 1999-2002 Total of top 15 countries with data for the periodin 000’s, Source: VDA: 

Trend in Industry Employment, 1999-2002 Total of top 15 countries with data for the period in 000’s, Source: VDA

Change in Industry Employment1999-2002, in 000’sTop 15 countries with data for the periodSource: VDA: 

Change in Industry Employment 1999-2002, in 000’s Top 15 countries with data for the period Source: VDA

Share of Employment in Assembly, 1999(Assembly includes engines & bodies)source: VDA, IMF Auto Report: 

Share of Employment in Assembly, 1999 (Assembly includes engines & bodies) source: VDA, IMF Auto Report

Changes in the Assembly Share of Employment, 1994-2002 (in share points), Source: VDA, IMF Auto Report: 

Changes in the Assembly Share of Employment, 1994-2002 (in share points), Source: VDA, IMF Auto Report

Forecast of Production Increasesby Region, 2004-2009(1000 units), Source: CSM: 

Forecast of Production Increases by Region, 2004-2009 (1000 units), Source: CSM Total = + 8,500

Growth in the Asia-Pacific region led by China’s auto sectors…: 

Growth in the Asia-Pacific region led by China’s auto sectors… Production in China 1990-2003

Projected Capacity of China's Major Auto Groups, 2003 v. 2007(1000 units): 

Projected Capacity of China's Major Auto Groups, 2003 v. 2007 (1000 units)

Projected Capacity of Auto TNC Alliances in China, 2003 v. 2007(1000 units): 

Projected Capacity of Auto TNC Alliances in China, 2003 v. 2007 (1000 units)

China’s car assembly capacity outpaces project domestic demand(1,000,000 units): 

China’s car assembly capacity outpaces project domestic demand (1,000,000 units)

The Principal Points: 

The Principal Points World Economic Outlook Auto Industry Trends Challenges for Trade Unions Trade union strategies & responses

The restructuring & integration of production chains impact assembly and supplier workers alike ...: 

The restructuring & integration of production chains impact assembly and supplier workers alike ... Mergers & acquisitions and strategic company alliances may provide economies of scale, but they can lead to the loss of jobs as well. The industry continues to be “squeezed” by the powerful vehicle producing companies. Impacts are often greatest on workers in Export Processing Zones, many of whom are women. Outsourcing and sub-contracting of work from one employer to another causes challenges all across production chains, from the local to the regional and global levels.

… Other challenges from restructuring are also occurring through ... : 

… Other challenges from restructuring are also occurring through ... … employers continued attempts to shift from permanent to temporary workers, which puts downward pressure on conditions for all workers … pressures and stresses of change related to increased demands for flexibility in the form of: modification of production processes, introduction of new technologies, expanding operating hours. … and from employers’ unrelenting cost-cutting & a growing trend of opposing unionization and union-won benefits.

Corporate-driven globalisation has intensified our challenges …: 

Corporate-driven globalisation has intensified our challenges … Trade & investment liberalization aims to deregulate markets, unhinder movement of capital & roll back government protections. Ruinous competition to attract investments can play off workers & communities against one another, deplete public resources, deny workers their rights, reduce living standards, and lower environmental protections. Downward pressures are exerted on the purchasing power and social wage of workers, even as their productivity continues to increase and under-utilized capacity exists.

… other challenges from corporate-driven globalisation : 

… other challenges from corporate-driven globalisation The resulting increased inequalities of income and wealth distribution, and the weakening of social protections, have severe consequences worldwide. The WTO, the proposed FTAA, NAFTA & other such agreements, are designed to meet the demands of transnational companies, not the needs & rights of workers & farmers, or protection of the environment. Excessive emphasis on export promotion, and lack of broader policies for domestic development, worsen existing global imbalances.

The Principal Points: 

The Principal Points World Economic Outlook Auto Industry Trends Challenges for Trade Unions Trade union strategies & responses

Autoworkers and their trade unions have the strategies and instruments to respond ... : 

Autoworkers and their trade unions have the strategies and instruments to respond ... … and we must continue to effectively implement and use and them: Organizing and collective bargaining both have critical roles to play. Building and strengthening industry-wide union structures to link workers across production chains at the national, regional and global levels. Mobilizing for adding a social dimension to globalization as formulated in the IMF Action Program, along with with our civil society allies

Trade unions have potent means to engage transnational auto companies ... : 

Trade unions have potent means to engage transnational auto companies ... Uniting workers in supplier & assembly sectors, putting more emphasis on organizing supplier workers and pressuring employers to end “supplier squeezing”. Negotiating & implementing International Framework Agreements with global auto companies as an effective means to link assembly and supplier workers and help ensure employers respect core labor standards. Building & strengthening World Company Councils & industry-wide coordination to help forge networks and connections to defend and advance worker and trade union rights and interests.

Solidarity is a necessity in the face of globalization: 

Solidarity is a necessity in the face of globalization Labor needs the strength and instruments to reign in competition in the global labor market International union power depends on cross border solidarity, and on … … global union structures and instruments for exercising it.

SOLIDARITY: 

SOLIDARITY