Boomburbs; Smart Growth at the Fringe?: Boomburbs; Smart Growth at the Fringe? Robert E. Lang, Ph.D. Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech January 29, 2005 4th Annual New Partners for Smart Growth Conference—Miami, FL


The 54 Boomburbs: The 54 Boomburbs Arizona: Chandler, Gilbert, Glendale, Mesa, Peoria, Scottsdale, Tempe California: Anaheim, Chula Vista, Corona, Costa Mesa, Daly City, Escondido, Fontana, Fremont, Fullerton, Irvine, Lancaster, Moreno Valley, Oceanside, Ontario, Orange, Oxnard, Palmdale, Rancho Cucamonga, Riverside, San Bernardino, Santa Ana, Santa Clarita, Santa Rosa, Simi Valley, Sunnyvale, Thousand Oaks Colorado: Aurora, Lakewood, Westminster Florida: Coral Springs, Hialeah, Pembroke Pines, Clearwater Nevada: Henderson, North Las Vegas Texas: Arlington, Carrollton, Garland, Grand Prairie, Irving, Mesquite, Plano Other States: Naperville, IL; Salem, OR; West Valley City, UT; Chesapeake, VA; Bellevue, WA


The 84 Baby Boomburbs: The 84 Baby Boomburbs California: Antioch, Apple Valley, Chino, Cupertino, Davis, Fairfield, Folsom, Gardena, Hemet, Hesperia, Laguna Niguel, Livermore, Lynwood, Milpitas, Mission Viejo, Napa, Petaluma, Pittsburg, Pleasanton, Rialto, Roseville, San Marcos, Santa Cruz, South Gate, Tustin, Union, Vacaville, Victorville, Vista, Yorba Linda Colorado: Greeley, Longmont, Thornton Florida: Boca Raton, Boynton Beach, Davie, Deerfield Beach, Del Ray Beach, Lauderhill, Margate, Miramar, North Miami, Plantation, Sunrise, Tamarac Georgia: Marietta, Roswell Illinois: Elgin, Orland Park, Palatine Maryland: Frederick, Gaithersburg Minnesota: Brooklyn Park, Burnesville, Coon Rapids, Eagan, Eden Prairie, Maple Grove, Plymouth


More Baby Boomburbs: More Baby Boomburbs Missouri: Lee’s Summit, St. Charles, St. Peters Oklahoma: Edmond, Norman Oregon: Beaverton, Gresham, Hillsboro Texas: Denton, Flower Mound, Lewisville, Missouri, Round Rock, Sugar Land Utah: Layton, Sandy, West Jordan Washington: Federal Way, Kent, Renton Other States: Cary, NC; Murfreesboro, TN; Olathe, KS; Rochester Hills, MI; Waukesha, WI


“Buildout”: “Buildout” Refers to the point at which development has reached a city’s borders or has exhausted large-scale greenfield options Controversial topic Not just how much land remains, but how it will be used


Boomburb Buildout Survey: Boomburb Buildout Survey 140 Surveyed, 87 provided complete answers 41 Boomburbs, 46 Baby Boomburbs Telephone and In-Person interviews Matrix provided in conference paper


Questions for Planning Depts:: Questions for Planning Depts: What percent of the city was left until buildout? What year would buildout occur? What will be the buildout population? Grow denser or less dense? Plans for passenger rail? Plans for transit-oriented development? Plans for mixed-use development? Plans for annexation?


Buildout Analysis Findings:: Buildout Analysis Findings: More than half the Boomburbs will be at their buildout point by 2020 Most Boomburbs expect to grow denser Over 1/3 have stopped annexing land Many have < 10% of land left to develop Almost half have or are planning passenger rail connections and a significant share of these places expect TOD


Case Studies: Case Studies “The Holdouts” Gilbert, AZ North Las Vegas, NV “Town and Country” Plano, TX Lakewood, CO Politics of Buildout: Scottsdale vs. Tempe, AZ Riverside, CA


Gilbert, Arizona: The Biggest “Town” in America: Gilbert, Arizona: The Biggest “Town” in America Reluctant City No Light Rail, Thank You Land Locked Mostly Single Use Development Planned


North Las Vegas, Nevada: Big Skies, Small Lots: North Las Vegas, Nevada: Big Skies, Small Lots Bureau of Land Management (BLM) Fast Rising Home Prices Affordable Housing?


Plano, Texas: From Boomtown to Built Up ‘Burb: Plano, Texas: From Boomtown to Built Up ‘Burb Mayor Recognizes Niche TOD at DART Station Competition from neighboring Baby Boomburbs


Lakewood, Colorado: Arlington, VA of the West: Lakewood, Colorado: Arlington, VA of the West Growth slowing Fewer traditional families Light Rail Planning for Infill


Scottsdale vs. Tempe: Scottsdale vs. Tempe Rusk’s Cities Without Suburbs Tempe decided not to annex Did not want split in neighborhoods Flat tax base Scottsdale did annex Low-density buildout plans North/South split


Riverside, California: Riverside, California Went from 78 to 90 square miles Building high-end housing Simultaneous expansion and densification Growth is bifurcated by income


Slide17: www.mi.vt.edu