Boomburbs; Smart Growth at the Fringe?: Boomburbs; Smart Growth at the Fringe?
Robert E. Lang, Ph.D.
at Virginia Tech
January 29, 2005 4th Annual New Partners for Smart Growth Conference—Miami, FL The 54 Boomburbs: The 54 Boomburbs Arizona: Chandler, Gilbert, Glendale, Mesa, Peoria, Scottsdale, Tempe
California: Anaheim, Chula Vista, Corona, Costa Mesa, Daly City, Escondido, Fontana, Fremont, Fullerton, Irvine, Lancaster, Moreno Valley, Oceanside, Ontario, Orange, Oxnard, Palmdale, Rancho Cucamonga, Riverside, San Bernardino, Santa Ana, Santa Clarita, Santa Rosa, Simi Valley, Sunnyvale, Thousand Oaks
Colorado: Aurora, Lakewood, Westminster
Florida: Coral Springs, Hialeah, Pembroke Pines, Clearwater
Nevada: Henderson, North Las Vegas
Texas: Arlington, Carrollton, Garland, Grand Prairie, Irving, Mesquite, Plano
Other States: Naperville, IL; Salem, OR; West Valley City, UT; Chesapeake, VA; Bellevue, WA
The 84 Baby Boomburbs: The 84 Baby Boomburbs California: Antioch, Apple Valley, Chino, Cupertino, Davis, Fairfield, Folsom, Gardena, Hemet, Hesperia, Laguna Niguel, Livermore, Lynwood, Milpitas, Mission Viejo, Napa, Petaluma, Pittsburg, Pleasanton, Rialto, Roseville, San Marcos, Santa Cruz, South Gate, Tustin, Union, Vacaville, Victorville, Vista, Yorba Linda
Colorado: Greeley, Longmont, Thornton
Florida: Boca Raton, Boynton Beach, Davie, Deerfield Beach, Del Ray Beach,
Lauderhill, Margate, Miramar, North Miami, Plantation, Sunrise, Tamarac
Georgia: Marietta, Roswell
Illinois: Elgin, Orland Park, Palatine
Maryland: Frederick, Gaithersburg
Minnesota: Brooklyn Park, Burnesville, Coon Rapids, Eagan, Eden Prairie, Maple
More Baby Boomburbs: More Baby Boomburbs Missouri: Lee’s Summit, St. Charles, St. Peters
Oklahoma: Edmond, Norman
Oregon: Beaverton, Gresham, Hillsboro
Texas: Denton, Flower Mound, Lewisville, Missouri, Round Rock, Sugar Land
Utah: Layton, Sandy, West Jordan
Washington: Federal Way, Kent, Renton
Other States: Cary, NC; Murfreesboro, TN; Olathe, KS; Rochester Hills, MI;
Refers to the point at which development has reached a city’s borders or has exhausted large-scale greenfield options
Not just how much land remains, but how it will be used
Boomburb Buildout Survey: Boomburb Buildout Survey 140 Surveyed, 87 provided complete answers
41 Boomburbs, 46 Baby Boomburbs
Telephone and In-Person interviews
Matrix provided in conference paper Questions for Planning Depts:: Questions for Planning Depts: What percent of the city was left until buildout?
What year would buildout occur?
What will be the buildout population?
Grow denser or less dense?
Plans for passenger rail?
Plans for transit-oriented development?
Plans for mixed-use development?
Plans for annexation? Buildout Analysis Findings:: Buildout Analysis Findings: More than half the Boomburbs will be at their buildout point by 2020
Most Boomburbs expect to grow denser
Over 1/3 have stopped annexing land
Many have < 10% of land left to develop
Almost half have or are planning passenger rail connections and a significant share of these places expect TOD Case Studies: Case Studies “The Holdouts”
North Las Vegas, NV
“Town and Country”
Politics of Buildout:
Scottsdale vs. Tempe, AZ
Riverside, CA Gilbert, Arizona: The Biggest “Town” in America: Gilbert, Arizona: The Biggest “Town” in America Reluctant City
No Light Rail, Thank You
Mostly Single Use Development Planned
North Las Vegas, Nevada: Big Skies, Small Lots: North Las Vegas, Nevada: Big Skies, Small Lots Bureau of Land Management (BLM)
Fast Rising Home Prices
Plano, Texas: From Boomtown to Built Up ‘Burb: Plano, Texas: From Boomtown to Built Up ‘Burb Mayor Recognizes Niche
TOD at DART Station
Competition from neighboring Baby Boomburbs
Lakewood, Colorado: Arlington, VA of the West: Lakewood, Colorado: Arlington, VA of the West Growth slowing
Fewer traditional families
Planning for Infill
Scottsdale vs. Tempe: Scottsdale vs. Tempe Rusk’s Cities Without Suburbs
Tempe decided not to annex
Did not want split in neighborhoods
Flat tax base
Scottsdale did annex
Low-density buildout plans
North/South split Riverside, California: Riverside, California Went from 78 to 90 square miles
Building high-end housing
Simultaneous expansion and densification
Growth is bifurcated by income Slide17: www.mi.vt.edu