PS142 lecture22

PS 142War and Peace : PS 142 War and Peace Europe and the End of the Cold War Lecture 22


Europe 2004-1945 : Europe 2004-1945 World Politics: International Politics on the World Stage, Brief, 2/e by John T. Rourke and Mark A. Boyer http://www.dushkin.com/connectext/wpold/


Transforming theInternational System : Transforming the International System Europe was major theater of Cold War Dominated international politics for 50 years End of Cold War is an opportunity learn about theories of systemic change Previous case studies focus more narrowly on crisis bargaining We will compare two perspectives on systemic change and stability


Theories of Stability and Change : Theories of Stability and Change Realism: War and peace are a result of distribution of military power Institutionalism/Idealism: War and Peace are also a result of ideas, beliefs, and international institutions These theories seek to explain causes of the Cold War, the reasons it ended, and the consequences of its collapse


Realism and theCauses of the Cold War : Realism and the Causes of the Cold War CW is an inevitable result of bipolarity WWII left power vacuum in center of Europe Very powerful and productive area Rivalry was inevitable in an effort by both superpowers to capture those resources Evidence of fight for resources: US attacks through Italy to block USSR US uses A-bomb to intimidate USSR


Realism and the Endof the Cold War : Realism and the End of the Cold War CW started with shift in military capabilities and ended for the same reason System structure depends on distribution of power CW ended because of collapse of Soviet economy US arms race ran USSR into the ground USSR economy could not support military and empire Evidence: Collapse of Soviet economy and empire


Questions about Realism and theEnd of the Cold War : Questions about Realism and the End of the Cold War End of Cold War is Dec. ’88-Nov. ’89 Gorbachev repeals “Brezhnev Doctrine” and replaces it with “Sinatra Doctrine” USSR will not intervene militarily to support Empire Communist govts. collapse in ’89 But Soviet economic collapse is mostly after 1989 Soviet growth flat since 1970, but no drop in mid-80’s


Questions about Realism and theEnd of the Cold War : Questions about Realism and the End of the Cold War Key Soviet change came with selection of Gorbachev in 1985 Clearly Soviets saw economic problems Gorby not the only (nor the expected) solution Not clear that arms race was the main trigger US spending leveled off by mid-1980’s Soviets appeared to have “weathered the storm” Why Gorbachev?


Realism and the Consequencesof the End of the Cold War : Realism and the Consequences of the End of the Cold War Cold War kept peace in Europe because of low systemic uncertainty and nuclear weapons Collapse of Cold War & Soviet Union increases uncertainty New states may be risk acceptant Bipolarity cannot be reestablished and US chose not to allow spread of nuclear weapons Realism very pessimistic about security in post Cold War Europe Example: Mearsheimer


Institutionalism, Idealism and theCauses of the Cold War : Institutionalism, Idealism and the Causes of the Cold War Cold War was not inevitable consequence of power vacuum Threat is combination of power and perceived intention US not “threatened” by UK nuclear weapons Truman and Stalin perceptions of each other combined with power vacuum created spiral of conflict Larson: Fundamental Attribution Error


Institutionalism, Idealism and theEnd of the Cold War : Institutionalism, Idealism and the End of the Cold War Key to end of Cold War is Soviet reinterpretation of how it can gain security Soviet “New Thinking” under Gorbachev USSR changed from deterrence model thinking to Prisoners’ Dilemma thinking This causes withdrawal of troops in Dec ’88 and “Sinatra Doctrine” USSR allows empire to collapse


Institutionalism, Idealism and Security in Post Cold War Europe : Institutionalism, Idealism and Security in Post Cold War Europe Transparency, beliefs and perceptions of threat can create security despite system structure Mechanisms for spreading transparency and perceptions of benign intentions: International Institutions (i.e. NATO, EU, etc.) Democracy Limit aggressive nationalism Europe is “primed” to do these things


Institutionalist and Idealist Policy Prescriptions : Institutionalist and Idealist Policy Prescriptions Kupchan and Kupchan: New “Concert of Europe” Expand CSCE to reassure new states Jack Snyder: Spread democracy to signal benign intention Help democracy spread by requiring it to join IOS Ensure non-nationalist teaching of history


Security in Europe afterthe Cold War : Security in Europe after the Cold War Who is right? ….Both theories have support! Central and Eastern Europe see spread of IOs (NATO and EU) and democracy Democracy required for IO membership as suggested by Snyder EU and NATO perform role suggested by Kupchan and Kupchan Remains stable despite systemic uncertainty Ukraine even gives up its nuclear weapons


Security in Europe afterthe Cold War : Security in Europe after the Cold War Europe looks very different in Balkans after the Cold War Neither IOs nor democracy spread to Balkans Collapse of Soviet empire leaves great uncertainty about borders and governments Leaders risk acceptant to maintain support Mearsheimer predictions of conflict are supported NATO forced to fill power vacuum again