The Future Joint Operating Environment (JOE): The Future Joint Operating Environment (JOE) USJFCOM J9 - Deep Futures Cleared For Public Release Administrative/Operational Use, 16 Nov 07. Other requests for this document shall be referred to: Deep Futures/Futures Exploration Division Joint Futures Lab; U.S. Joint Forces Command 115 Lakeview Parkway, Suffolk, VA 23435-2697 Phone: 757-203-3340


Futures Group – Deep Futures: Futures Group – Deep Futures Deep Futures provides a coherent look into the trends shaping the future operating environment and identifies the military implications Activities: Research / Writing Conferences and Workshops Outreach Partners: TRADOC, JS J5, USAF A8X, USMC SVG and CETO, USCG Office of Strategic Analysis,…and growing Objectives: Identify the emerging threats and opportunities of the future security environment Facilitate understanding of these emerging threats and opportunities across the JCD&E enterprise Products: The Joint Operating Environment (JOE) document Trend papers Conference and special study reports


Deep Futures: Futures Enterprise: Deep Futures: Futures Enterprise National Intelligence Council (NIC) / Director of National Intelligence (DNI) DoS and Joint Staff J5 (Project Horizon) OSD Plans and Policy Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Lab USMC Strategic Vision Group (SVG) and Center for Emerging Threats and Opportunities (CETO) Air Force Research Lab (AFRL) Development, Concepts, and Doctrine Center (DCDC) (UK) US Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC) Naval War College (NWC) USCG Office of Strategic Analysis USAF A8X Chief of Naval Operations Strategic Studies Group (CNO SSG) National Research Labs (DARPA, ORNL, Sandia) Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) Eurasia Group USJFCOM Transformation Advisory Group (TAG) US European Command (EUCOM) Bundeswehr Transformation Center (GE) Partners


The Joint Operating Environment: The Joint Operating Environment Document describes present and possible future trends, conditions, variables, circumstances and influences that will affect how a Commander will organize and employ his forces. Not intended to describe specific areas of operation, nor adversaries, but general conditions that shape the environment of conflict.


The JOE Document: The JOE Document Chapter 1: Introduction Chapter 2: Trends in the Joint Operating Environment Human Geography Governance and Legitimacy Resources and Economics Science, Technology, and Engineering Chapter 3: Challenges Facing the Future Joint Force Enduring Challenges Emerging Challenges National Security Shocks Chapter 4: Implications for the Joint Force Terrain Base Knowledge Force Application Command Chapter 5: Conclusion


Slide6: Operating Environment: A general description of the important features of a the world’s international system. Critical variables: Define the characteristics of an operating environment. They are a set of the most important constituent elements of a strategic environment. Trends: Are the movement of a variable over time. Trends document ongoing changes to variables and allow for projections of the characteristics of an operating environment at a future point in time. Shocks: Can precipitate or result from trends. Critical Variables: Define operating environments. Differences in variables are a reflection of accumulated trends and shocks over time. Military Implications: Describe how trends influence the application and design of military forces. JOE Terminology


Chapter 2: Trends: Chapter 2: Trends Human Geography Population Growth Age Distribution Gender Imbalance Climate Change Crime Culture Education Ethnicity Health Urbanization Migration Governance and Legitimacy The Powerful The Weak Legitimacy Failed or Failing States Transnationalism Regionalism Terrorism Alliances and Coalitions Resources and Economics Climatic Disruption Resource Competition Distribution of Wealth Global Trade Networks Information-Age Economics Economic Regionalism Global Labor Markets Science, Technology, and Engineering Biological Systems Machines and Computers Information, Knowledge, Communications Energy Weapons of Mass Effect Environmental Science


Human Geography: Wealth Distribution Gap Widening Within and across states Public Health is improving, but… AIDS epidemic continues Pandemic Influenza threat Migration Muslims to Europe Europeans to U.S? Brain drain from developing countries Crime Human smuggling overtaking drug smuggling as transnational crime Culture, ethnicity Religious ideology and identity politics increasing Militant Islam Training, education Science, tech, engineering degrees going to foreign nationals Human Geography


Population and Demographics: Our Hemisphere 13% (US = 4%) 2 billion more people by 2025, 56% of global population will be in Asia 66% will live in urban areas along coastlines The populations of developed countries are aging – rapidly Age divide between developed and developing nations will lead to large migration of work force from developing to developed Population and Demographics


Slide10: Population Pyramids – U.S. The retired Cohort The wage-earning Cohort The schooling cohort The Past The Present The Future


Slide11: Population Pyramids – Developed Nations The retired Cohort The wage-earning Cohort The schooling cohort


Slide12: Population Pyramids – Russia & China The retired Cohort The wage-earning Cohort The schooling cohort


Slide13: Population Pyramids – India and Nigeria


Urbanization: Big cities getting bigger—and poorer 66% of world in cities by 2030 2007: 3.2 billion people in cities - a number larger than the entire global population of 1967 Urbanization


Climate Change: Climate Change


Resources and Economics: Scarcity and Stress: Desertification and shifting growth bands stress food production Substantial populations face water stress Resources and Economics: Scarcity and Stress


Economic Globalization: Globalization will continue to be the overarching trend that shapes others. Reversal would have dramatic consequences Increasing connectivity and travel will level the playing field Transformers win, those that lag may encounter instability The rise of new Asian Powers will re-orient the world China as the 2nd largest economy – may pass EU in 2015, US by 2040 India as the 3rd largest economy – may pass EU by 2025 Economic Globalization Percent of World Gross National Income ~by region South Asia 16% 11% 13% 30% 2025 2006 19% 31% 17% North America North Asia EU Other 33%


Global Energy Stress: Vastly increased demand as developing nations transition to first world standard of living Energy demand will continue to shape international politics Global Energy Stress


Global Energy Stress: Energy demand tracks with population and economic growth Liquid fossil fuels may peak before alternatives come on line Mismatch of supply and demand may cause shortages & economic shock, instability / state failure and great power competition may follow May also encourage innovation… Global Energy Stress


Science, Technology and Engineering: The pace of change is dramatically accelerating “We tend to overestimate short term change, and underestimate long-term change” IT, Nano and Bio are merging Vast new dangers (and opportunities) Vast improvements in material well-being balanced against new ways to kill and oppress Science, Technology and Engineering


Nano/Bio/Info: Information Technology Biotechnology Nanotechnology Man/Machine Computing Smart Dust/Networked Bacteria Every Soldier a Sensor/Every Sensor to the Soldier “Lifelogging” Soldier Augmentation Teleoperations Advanced Materials Cellulosic Ethanol Artificial Organs and Tissues Precision Biodefense Nano/Bio/Info


Constrained U.S. Military Budgets: Increasing entitlements exert ever increasing pressure on defense spending Constrained U.S. Military Budgets


Examples of Trends and Variables: Examples of Trends and Variables Trends Human Geography Aging Japan and European Union populations; increasing social welfare costs; disconnection of immigrants from society. Natural Resources Global energy demand increasing faster than supplies. Increasing water stress Science, Technology, and Engineering Increasing importance of environmental-, bio-, info-, and nano-technology. Increasing level of political and social control over technological developments U.S. remains the single most powerful actor economically, technologically, militarily, but others closing the gap, or exceeding the U.S. in specific niches. Variables Ability of EU and Japan to adapt work forces, welfare systems and integrate migrant populations Extent of political instability in energy-producing countries and supply disruptions. Ability to develop and bring new sources into production at reasonable cost. Extent to which new technologies create or resolve problems for human society. Ability of U.S. scientific and technical research and development to stay ahead of potential adversary capabilities Unclassified


Examples of Trends and Variables (cont) : Examples of Trends and Variables (cont) Trends Production and Exchange of Information, Knowledge, and Culture Global firms increasingly facilitate spread of new technologies. Political Islam continues as a potent force. Economics Globalization largely irreversible, but increasingly less Westernized. World economy growing and substantially larger. Rise of Asia and advent of possible new economic middle weights. International Actors Capabilities and influence of non-state actors growing. Variables Extent to which connectivity challenges governments. Impact of religiosity on unity of states and potential for conflict; growth of jihadist ideology. Degree to which globalization of trade and finance spreads wealth in lagging economies Level that Asian countries set new rules of the game; Level of wealth and power of China and India. Extent of gaps between “haves” and “have-nots”; capability to manage or contain financial crises. Willingness and ability of states and international institutions to accommodate non-state actors.


Examples of Trends and Variables (cont) : Examples of Trends and Variables (cont) Trends Distribution of Power Increasing from one superpower to two, three or even four peers with 5-6 other major regional powers. Governance and Legitimacy Arc of instability spanning Caribbean, Northwest Africa, Middle East, Asia, Africa. Persuasion, Coercion, and Use of Force Improved WMD capabilities of some states Increasing information about WMD available; increased activity by states to monitor and act against non-state actors acquiring WMD Variables Ability of evolving new powers to develop all elements on national power and will and challenge the U.S. Crises in the ability and legitimacy of governments; levels of regime stability Number of nuclear powers; ability of terrorists to acquire biological, chemical, radiological, or nuclear weapons. Unclassified


Critical Uncertainties: Critical Uncertainties American long term economic competitiveness (national debt, low savings, trade imbalance, S&T base, etc) China’s internal leadership/economic dynamics— global spill over if socio-economic progress slows or if fragmentation occurs How contagious nuclear proliferation becomes The coming convergence of technologies, and their defense applications and social/moral implications Potential for bio-rich “haves” and “have nots” Will biotech generate more threats or greater defensive potential? Potential for sudden energy breakthrough Degree of sustained progress in developing countries (Brazil, Russia, India or China) and governance challenges (Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran, Turkey and Pakistan) Will schism within Islam breakout into open state conflict? Long term economic, health and social implications of climate change Courtesy of USMC/SVG


Chapter 3: Future Joint Force Challenges: Chapter 3: Future Joint Force Challenges Enduring Challenges are ongoing, “obvious” and include historic or “core” missions of the U.S. military. Example: Conflict with other Great Powers More fluid international environment emerges as cold war order collapses. Rebalancing of global power away from the Atlantic and towards the Pacific. Emergence of China and India as global players. U.S. as “first among equals.” Example: Collapse of Functioning States Inability of states to provide basic security and create legal and economic governance in which citizens can prosper. Results in conflict within the state. Spills into neighboring states and provides and environment where criminals and terrorists can operate freely against U.S. interests. Enduring Opportunities: Flexibility to conduct “offshore balancing” among Eurasian powers. Primacy of economic factors for great power status encourages cooperative approaches to the international order. Encourage “whole of government” approaches to security. Cost of peace cheap compared to the cost of war.


Chapter 3: Future Joint Force Challenges: Chapter 3: Future Joint Force Challenges Emerging Challenges refer to rising challenges that flow from the failure of the current state system to retain its monopoly on force and organized violence. Example: Anti-Access Strategies and Capabilities Development of military capabilities to deny the ability of the U.S. to project power into Eurasia. Anti-space capabilities, directed energy, intelligence and global information systems. Integrated with political efforts to disrupt intermediate staging areas. Example: Disruption of Global Trade and Finance Attacks against key hubs in financial or trade networks. Example: Persistent Cyber-Conflict Information blockades of entire countries (Estonia). Botnets with world-class processing power launch attacks or crack networks from millions of compromised computers around the world. Example: Global Anti-American Coalition World powers balance against U.S. influence. Construction of alternative world order (Shanghai Cooperation Organization, coordinated disinformation campaign. Emerging Opportunities: Technical domains of air, sea, space and cyber (essential for anti-access) play into U.S. strengths. U.S. economy highly flexible and resilient. Others powers may fare worse in attacking our trade and finance. U.S. ownership of domain-name and root servers can disrupt adversary cyber-systems.


Chapter 3: Future Joint Force Challenges: Chapter 3: Future Joint Force Challenges National Security Shocks are a collection of less likely surprises that would be highly consequential for U.S. security and upset the balance of the current international system. Example: Energy Disruption Dependence on foreign energy sources a major source of vulnerability. Potential emergence of trading regime of guaranteed users and suppliers lock U.S. out. Example: Nuclear Attack Overturns current world order if used anywhere. Deterrence strategy against the U.S. by weaker powers. Taking advantage of global shocks: Increase focus on domestic and alternative sources of energy. Decrease revenues for hostile and aggressive energy source states. Development of means to trace radiological materials. Focus on innovative deterrent strategies Develop technologies for operating in a nuclear environment.


Chapter 4: Joint Force Implications: Chapter 4: Joint Force Implications Battlespace approaching global dimensions, and becoming less dense. Lines and fronts become “volumes.” Adversaries take every opportunity to aggravate and intensify cultural friction. U.S. must acquire cultural expertise and capacities to gather and use cultural knowledge. Operations with other elements of government and society. Terrain defines the physical and intellectual context of conflict and war. A Base is a physical locality from which operations are projected or supported. Or, from a moral standpoint, it is a source of legitimacy or ideological foundation for support by a culture or society. Diffusion of power away from states (and the U.S.). U.S. must understand the base of hostile actors. Maintaining access to Global Commons becomes key focus for U.S. operations. Few U.S. sources of strength will be completely shielded from possible attack.


Chapter 4: Joint Force Implications: Chapter 4: Joint Force Implications U.S. dominance of maneuver warfare cause adversaries to explore other means to impose their will on the U.S. Avoid open, less complex environments, seek complex urban terrain, highly trafficked sea and air lanes. Larger percentage of scientific research occurring outside the U.S. More around the world will have access to increasingly sophisticated technologies, leading to adversaries armed with novel capabilities. Increased focus on the Cognitive Domain – where perceptions, awareness, beliefs, and values reside. This may be the central campaign, with military political and other activities supporting the cognitive campaign. “Lawfare” - Adversaries will operate on both sides of our legal system to take advantage of its processes and protections when possible and to hobble the U.S. when not possible. Force Application is the ability to impose one’s will on an opponent using the assets (or weapons) at one’s disposal. It is maneuver and fires (in the military context) or position and influence in non-military areas.


Chapter 4: Joint Force Implications: Chapter 4: Joint Force Implications Knowledge describes the ability to gather and integrate information for purposeful action in a conflict. Command is the logic that translates the application of force into desired strategic outcomes. It is the unifying vision and direction for the application of force. Future joint force will encounter adversaries that place the majority of effort on the cognitive domain. Reliance on information systems increases likelihood of adversary attacks on them. Information and knowledge will be widely available for minimal capital investment (e.g. satellite imagery) Organizations must change to take advantage of information ubiquity. (e.g. self publishing means that high-quality analysis may be found in unlikely places) Adversaries may view American confidence in the technical aspects of war as neglecting its essential political foundations. Commanders must be comfortable in an environment that features networks rather than hierarchies. Commanders must understand the relationships between military, political, economic, and other areas, especially in homeland defense missions.


Summary of the JOE: Summary of the JOE Globalization’s uneven impacts: Producing dislocation, dissonance & disorder Access to markets, resources highly vulnerable to disruption Changing security paradigm Greater emphasis on prevention Blurring challengers Greater complexity in operating environment Higher rates of change & surprise Greater demand for institutional and individual agility “War and warfare do not always change in an evolutionary or linear fashion. Surprise is not merely possible, or even probable, it is certain.” ~Colin Gray


Questions?Deep Futures, USJFCOM(757) 203-3928: Questions? Deep Futures, USJFCOM (757) 203-3928