Pattison FL 2060

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FLORIDA 2060 A Research Project of 1000 Friends of Florida

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Thank you to the sponsors: The St. Joe Company, A. Duda & Sons, The Nature Conservancy, and Robert L. Parks, WilsonMiller, Fishkind & Associates, & Glatting Jackson.

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Florida 2060 Trend analysis of urban development Results of incremental decisions Question of legacy leadership Prepared by GeoPlan Center of UF and CQG&RD at Georgia Tech

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Assumptions 1. Moderate Population Growth (BEBR trend line) 2. New population consumes land at same density as existing development, by County 3. New population distributed geographically based on land suitability (existing urban, roadways, water, coastline, wetlands)

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2060 2005 17.9 Million 35.8 Million Population Forecast

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Existing Developed Lands and Permanent Conservation Lands

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2060 Developed Lands and Permanent Conservation Lands

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2060 2005 Agriculture, Other Undeveloped Lands 19.5 Urban Development 6.0 Urban Development 13.0 Water 2.0 Water 2.0 Permanently Protected Conservation 10.8 Permanently Protected Conservation 10.8 Agriculture, Other Undeveloped Lands 12.5 Statewide Land Use Allocation (millions of acres) Total: 38.3 Million Acres

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Native Habitat 2.7 Million Agriculture 2.7 Million Other 1.5 Million Additional Land Converted to Urban Development 2005-2060 Total: 7 Million Acres

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New Conservation Lands Targeted For Purchase Statewide Developed Land Conservation Lands Permanently Protected Lands Targeted for Purchase

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Developed Land and Permanent Conservation Lands Existing Existing 2060

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Developed Land and Permanent Conservation Lands 2005 2060

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Time for Leadership • Expand Florida Forever • Adopt New Policy on Converting Rural Land to Urban Use • Create 100 Year Legacy Plan Statewide Policy Implications

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Statewide Policy Implications Expand Florida Forever • Reauthorize • Higher Funding Level • Expand to Open Space, Agricultural Lands • Create Permanent Edges to Urban Communities

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Adopt New Policy on Converting Rural to Urban Statewide Policy Implications • Not Just Discourage Urban Sprawl • Add Density in Fair Trade for Significant Open Space, Natural and Agricultural Lands. • Regional Vision Plans Land Use, Environment, and Transportation • Master Plan “Communities of Place”

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Statewide Policy Implications 100 Year Legacy Plan • Protect Existing Property Rights • Preserve Community Character • Target Lands for Permanent Protection • Create “Livable Communities” Within Urban Areas - Redevelopment At Urban Edges In Potential New Towns • Guide State Budget, Investments

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FLORIDA 2060 A Research Project of 1000 Friends of Florida

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Existing Developed Land and Permanent Conservation Lands

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2060 Developed Lands and Permanent Conservation Lands

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Existing Developed Land and Permanent Conservation Lands

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2060 Developed Lands and Permanent Conservation Lands

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Existing Developed Land and Permanent Conservation Lands

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2060 Developed Lands and Permanent Conservation Lands

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Existing Developed Land and Permanent Conservation Lands

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2060 Developed Lands and Permanent Conservation Lands

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Reserve Network for Florida Core Preserves Buffer Zones and Corridors Source: Noss & Cooperrider 1994