mcqueen session6 2007

Slide1: 

Improvements to Ozone Forecast Guidance for the National Air Quality Forecast Capability NWS/NCEP/EMC & NOAA/OAR/ARL - EPA October 2, 2007

Acknowledgements: 

Acknowledgements NCEP/EMC Pius Lee – System design and implementation Marina Tsidulko – PBL & Chem Verification Youhua Tang – Regional In-line testing & LBC Ho-Chun Huang – Global dust/smoke system DT&E (NASA, NESDIS) Sarah Lu – Global data assimilation and feedback testing (NASA, NESDIS) Brad Ferrier, Mike Ek – WRF retrospective run Eric Rogers, Hui-Ya Chuang – NAM products Jeff McQueen – EMC AQ model team leader EPA AQ Forecast team (Mathur, Kang, Lin, Yu…)

NOAA-EPA AQF system: 

NOAA-EPA AQF system North American Model (NAM) NAM 3D VAR Data Assimilation (sat radiances, radar winds, raob, ACARS, surface met) WRF-Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) 12 km 60 NMM hybrid sigma - pressure levels June 2007: Changes to landuse & roughness to address moist biases in Pac NW CMAQ V4.6 CB4 gas-phase chemistry w/ Euler Backward Iteration (EBI) solver Simplified aqueous phase chemistry PPM horizontal advection AERO 3 for aerosol developmental run Emissions: PREMAQ (SMOKE) Point, area: NEI 2001 projected to 2007 with DOE EGU estimates Mobile: Temperature dependence from MOBILE-6 estimates Biogenic: PREMAQ BEIS 3 Wild Fire Smoke (PM run only): 2001 inventory

Forecast Domains (2005-2007)48 h forecasts at 06 and 12Z: 

268 grid cells 259 grid cells East “3x” Domain (GFS O3 LBC at top) Forecast Domains (2005-2007) 48 h forecasts at 06 and 12Z CONUS “5x” Domain (clean, static BC) WRF-CMAQ 06Z WRF-CMAQ/PM

NAM-CMAQ Coupling: 

NAM-CMAQ Coupling ** PM ** for Exp only

EMC Productshttp://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/aq: 

EMC Products http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/aq Daily Max of 8h Ozone 1h Ozone Bias

EMC Web Products1h, 24h avg hrly & Max PM & Profiles (Pius Lee): 

EMC Web Products 1h, 24h avg hrly & Max PM & Profiles (Pius Lee)

Slide8: 

Daily 8hr max Ozone Biases Op vs Exp over Eastern U.S. Summer 2006 Summer 2007 Both Op and Experimental Runs improved in 2007 For Operational run, NAM improvements partially responsible 7/1/07 8/1/07

Regional Performance, 1-h O3Experimental Run Bias Reduced in 2007: 

Regional Performance, 1-h O3 Experimental Run Bias Reduced in 2007 2006 2007 2006 High bias, up to +25 ppb Underprediction SW coast 2007 Bias reduced Good forecast for NW coast Underprediction SWC (LA basin) Forecast hour 12z 00z 12z 12z 00z

California Performance 8h Max ozone pred vs obs (M. Tsidulko): 

California Performance 8h Max ozone pred vs obs (M. Tsidulko) Good: SAC, SJV Under: LA urban Over: East of LA Good: SJV Under: LA urban Over: SAC, East of LA Good: SJV Under: LA urban Over: SAC, East of LA

NAM vs RTMA 10 m WindsJuly 3rd 5 PM, 36 hour Forecasts: 

NAM vs RTMA 10 m Winds July 3rd 5 PM, 36 hour Forecasts LA Basin: NAM Temps are warmer; winds are stronger & more westerly NAM RTMA

NAM 2m Dew point Errors SW Coast (green): 

NAM 2m Dew point Errors SW Coast (green) BIAS by Forecast hour BIAS for each day Dry bias can increase photolysis & ozone production can decrease deposition of pollutants over veg

Mid-Atlantic 8 h Max Performance July 10, 2007: 

Mid-Atlantic 8 h Max Performance July 10, 2007 Very Similar performance between operational and experimental Operational 3X Experimental 5X

NAM 30 h Precip Forecast July 10, 2007: 

NAM 30 h Precip Forecast July 10, 2007 NAM convective precip started earlier than predicted in Mid-Atlantic NAM Precip Prediction River Forecast Center 3 hrly total Precip Analysis

Exp 8h Max Regional Performance August 2, 2007: 

Exp 8h Max Regional Performance August 2, 2007 CIN CHAR ATL LOU NASH PIT Good forecasts for moderate event in PIT, DC, PHL, S. CT , Charlotte, Louisville, Cincinnati (clear skies)

Exp 8h Max Texas Performance August 11, 2007: 

Exp 8h Max Texas Performance August 11, 2007 Ozone buildup over stable marine layer w/ CONUS 5X run. This residual layer can recirculate onshore. OPERATIONAL EXPERIMENTAL

Slide17: 

Exp – Op Ozone Difference 12 Z August 10, 2007 Forecast Ocean Land ACM

Summary: 

Summary Overall results Experimental run biases are improved NAM changes from 2006 to 2007 also have a positive impact (as Operational run biases improved) Skill scores are improved at lower levels and comparable at higher thresholds Experimental run provides previously unavailable guidance to Western U.S. California O3 forecasts improved Better performance in San Joaquin Valley Underprediction in LA urban area Some Overprediction in Sacramento Valley & downwind of LA NAM onshore winds near LA often too strong Upward lofting partially due to inconsistent NAM and CMAQ daytime unstable PBL physics (Vertical resolution may also have an impact) Impact of aerosols & forest fires on ozone production (Stockwell, et al. 2002) 5X overprediction along coastal urban areas ACM-2 stable, marine PBL mixing may be too weak Produces pollutant reservoir off-shore that can impact coastal urban areas (Houston, Long Island Sound, Lake Michigan…)

Recommendations: 

Recommendations Implement more consistent boundary layer and cloud mixing schemes Internal boundary layer processes near coastal regions Continue inline testing (WRF-Chem) Increase focus on chemical data assimilation in Global GSI coordination with AQF ESRL/GSD data assimilation, NESDIS, NASA… LA Basin/ Houston NMM high resolution experiments in coordination with ESRL/ PSD NMM study Test impact of aerosols/forest fires in California More complete chemistry CB05 more heterogeneous chemistry with aerosols Improved boundary conditions GFS-GOCART, HYSPLIT Spatially & Temporally varying Lateral Boundaries (currently static) Reduced gas phase chemistry (eg: RAQMS, Goloff & Stockwell, 2002) for ESMF/GFS

BACKUPS: 

BACKUPS

Summer 2007 Evaluations(Errors not uncovered w/retro tests): 

Summer 2007 Evaluations (Errors not uncovered w/retro tests) Experimental/Developmental Runs: Significant under-prediction in upper Mid-West Deposition Velocity Added Mesophyll component for O3, NO, NO2 STATUS: Implemented inexper/dev runs on July 22 Minor impact on forecast Increased photochemistry in Midwest Plume Rise STATUS: Corrected in exper/dev run on July 22 minor impact

2006-2007 SystemsNAM/WRF-CMAQ 12 km runs: 

2006-2007 Systems NAM/WRF-CMAQ 12 km runs