The current context: The current context Sue Blundell Executive Director, English Australia ACIVC Conference 22 June 2007


Summary: Summary Current context – statistics/trends ELICOS VET Developments/Issues


Global English Language Training: Global English Language Training Aus$12 billion industry worldwide Australia’s market share approx 11% - Aus$1.08 billion in 2005 growth in # of students travelling to study English & increasing length of study


1996 – 2006: 1996 – 2006 ELICOS colleges 1996 – 124 colleges 2006 – 261 colleges (110% growth) ELICOS students 1996 – 72,545 2006 – 120,000 (67% growth)


AEI Statistics 2006: AEI Statistics 2006


ELICOS commencements (EA data - all visa types): ELICOS commencements (EA data - all visa types)


Current status of Australian ELICOS sector: Current status of Australian ELICOS sector 2002 & 2003 - declining numbers 2004 – flattening of student visas but growth in non-student visas from Japan & Korea 2005 – return to growth in student visa holders – Korea, Brazil, Czech & Other 2006 – healthy growth across student visas and working holiday & other visas, however slight decline in visitor visas


2006 – the AEI perspective of the ELICOS sector: 2006 – the AEI perspective of the ELICOS sector 19.4% growth in commencements 59,615 commencing ELICOS students (with student visas) 9,676 more ELICOS students than 2005 69% from top 6 countries only one country in top 10 down – Japan Colombia & Vietnam replaced Indonesia & Czech Republic in top 10 China #1 source country


2006 – the EA perspective of the ELICOS sector: 2006 – the EA perspective of the ELICOS sector 21% growth in commencements 121,858 commencing ELICOS students (all visas) 771 more ELICOS students than 2005 70% from top 6 countries only one country in top 10 down – Japan India replaced Indonesia in top 10 Korea overtook Japan as #1 source country


2006 – the ELICOS sector: 2006 – the ELICOS sector Top 6 countries of critical importance 2006 growth in student visa holders driven by: Korea +1,811 students (+21%) India +1,545 students (+140%) Brazil +1,325 students (+38%) 2006 growth in all visa holders driven by: Korea +4,829 students (+24%) China +2,254 students (+14%) Brazil +1,875 students (+22%)


Top 6 ELICOS countries(AEI data): Top 6 ELICOS countries (AEI data)


Top 6 ELICOS countries(EA data): Top 6 ELICOS countries (EA data)


AEI Statistics YTD April: AEI Statistics YTD April


AEI Statistics YTD April: AEI Statistics YTD April ELICOS commencements +40.2% = 8,620 more students in just 4 months declines from Japan (-4%) & Taiwan (-9%) strongest growth (# of students) from China (+2,692) and India (+2,301) strongest % growth from India (+339%) Vietnam and Saudi Arabia have replaced Hong Kong and Czech Republic in the top ten source countries for ELICOS strongest growth for ELICOS in Victoria (+67%)


YTD April ELICOS – States/Territories growth: YTD April ELICOS – States/Territories growth NSW +47% - China & India QLD +12% - Colombia & China VIC +67% - India & China WA +28% - China, Brazil, Korea, Saudi Arabia SA +31% - China ACT +26% - most important countries China/Korea TAS +31% - most important countries China/Korea NT +5% - Indonesia, China, Nepal, Thailand, Japan, India


VET commencements (AEI data): VET commencements (AEI data) +16.5% +29.9% +6.5% +3.3%


2006: 2006 29.9% growth in commencements 49,809 commencing VET students 11,465 more VET students than 2005 56% from top 6 countries only one country in top 10 down – Japan no change in top 10 Strongest growth from India (+4,525 students), followed by China & Brazil China #1 source country, followed by India


2006 – the VET sector: 2006 – the VET sector 2 countries dominate – China & India China 16% of VET compared with 14% in 2002 India 15% of VET compared with 3% in 2002 2006 growth driven by: India +1,811 students (+21%) Bangladesh +1,545 students (+140%) Brazil +1,325 students (+38%) Return to growth following 3 years of declines Hong Kong & Indonesia


Top 6 VET countries(AEI data): Top 6 VET countries (AEI data)


AEI Statistics YTD April: AEI Statistics YTD April


AEI Statistics YTD April: AEI Statistics YTD April VET commencements +45% = 9,471 more students in just 4 months declines from Japan (-11%) & Hong Kong (-8%) strongest growth (# of students) from India (+4,343), Nepal (+1,392) and China (+1,180) strongest % growth from Nepal (+592%) and India (+192%) Nepal has replaced Malaysia in the top ten source countries for VET India overtook China as #1 source country strongest growth for VET in Victoria (+64%)


YTD April VET – States/Territories growth: YTD April VET – States/Territories growth NSW +40% - China (2,486) & India (1,963) VIC +64% - India (4,232) & China (1,603) QLD +31% - China (464) & Korea (300) WA +28% - China (221) & Malaysia (214) SA +47% - China (275) & Hong Kong (92) ACT +10% - China (65 & India (21) TAS +31% - China (33) & UAE (18) NT +27% - Philippines (9) & Indonesia (6)


2. Developments / Issues: 2. Developments / Issues international competitors markets trends domestic government policy trends


2. Developments / Issues: 2. Developments / Issues significant decline in key market - Japan new competitors eg. Philippines, Singapore, China transnational delivery – growth & extent


2. Developments / Issues: 2. Developments / Issues commoditisation of ELT ‘product’ – price sensitivity the long term future of ELT (and study in English) existing competitors – accreditation/visas


2. Developments / Issues: 2. Developments / Issues increasing focus on the importance of English General Skilled Migration review Citizenship (and English test) entry standards for further study/direct entry vs IELTS


2. Developments / Issues: 2. Developments / Issues Working Holiday visa changes in 2006 IELTS requirement for English only & package courses


Main area of impact – Independent ELICOS (China): Main area of impact – Independent ELICOS (China) Internationally - 3 distinct markets for ELT: a) pathway to further study b) stand-alone English - career, professional, leisure etc c) study-tourism (short course, not necessarily on a student visa) Numbers of students for a) dominate Chinese ELICOS numbers in Australia. Numbers for c) are growing from a small base (ref. EA/Environmetrics Survey for 2005). Numbers for b) are virtually non-existent (only 0.069% of all Chinese students gained an Independent ELICOS student visa in 2004/2005 compared with the global average for all countries of 15%). This is extremely unusual in a global context where English language skills are growing in importance.


2. Developments / Issues: 2. Developments / Issues student visa risk AL changes from 14 May 2007 DIAC abolish permission to work visa from 1 April 2008 AESOC review of quality standards for ELICOS


2. Developments / Issues: 2. Developments / Issues National Code 2007 – from 1 July 2007 – support from DEST Information seminars DEST ESOS website Explanatory Guide Part D – Standards Structure/Compliance tips/Q&As support from EA The ELICOS Sector Compliance Guide http://www.englishaustralia.com.au/transition_project.html


2. Developments / Issues: 2. Developments / Issues DEST / AEI AEI ELICOS Sector Strategy articulates government position re how they support ELICOS sector Research projects Language level descriptors ELICOS student spending ELICOS student survey Other ELICOS Market snapshots Transnational ELT Good Practice projects (July) ELT Symposium (August)


3. Questions: 3. Questions Is the global market for English language training growing or shrinking? in the short-term and the long-term? Will Australia’s share of the global market continue to grow? Is transnational delivery ‘cannibalising’ onshore ELT delivery? Is ‘quality’ a marketable differentiating factor for ELT or is price the main driver?


3. Questions: 3. Questions How do we overcome perceptions –students’, agents’, g’ments’, other sectors’ – that English language skill development is a hurdle to be crossed rather than having intrinsic value and impacting on future study and career success? Are our own governments (c’wealth and state) supporting or handicapping the sector? Will the various visa changes (and the increasing compliance requirements of ESOS) encourage ELT providers to step outside the ESOS framework?