The Future of EU-Russia Relations – A New Cold War?: The Future of EU-Russia Relations – A New Cold War? Dr Fraser Cameron Director, EU-Russia Centre


Cold War Mark II: Cold War Mark II Putin in Munich sharply attacks US foreign policy – NATO expansion – missile defence in Poland and CZ – and OSCE Why? Genuine concern? Domestic reasons? Divide US and EU? Bush – no longer Putin’s soulmate – relations with Russia “complicated” NATO SG “disappointed” – most EU leaders kept quiet - but 60% Germans support Putin’s criticism of US unilateralism and militarism


The Problem Areas: The Problem Areas Russian concerns include US hegemony coupled with declining US interest in Russia, Western democracy agenda (Ukraine, Georgia, Belarus, etc), unfair treatment in energy sector, double standards on human rights, NATO at their border, Poles and Balts, visas


Western Perspective: Western Perspective Russia sliding towards authoritarianism, centralisation of power, attacks on media, NGOs, new ‘official’ business oligarchs Energy blackmail – security of supplies Unwilling to take tough line on Iran Refusal to accept independent neighours Growing anti-Western rhetoric, nationalism


Stabilising Factors: Stabilising Factors Need to involve Russia in Iran, Kosovo, proliferation, terrorism – Kyoto? Energy interdependence (with EU) PCA bureaucracy – lots of meetings Trade 55% Russian exports to EU (5% to US) – WTO accession On going nuclear disarmament Russian elite likes Europe – shopping, education, property


EU-Russia Overview: EU-Russia Overview EU-Russia relations based on 1977 Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) – will continue on annual basis unless either party withdraws Russia also deemed to be a ‘strategic partner’ of the EU – 1999 and 2003 Critical relationship for the future of Europe – but many unanswered questions concerning Russia and EU


Quid Russia? : Quid Russia? Russia still struggling to adapt to loss of Soviet empire – and superpower status Yeltsin era caused drop in faith in democracy and market economy (third prefer Soviet system) Majority of Russians do not consider themselves ‘European’ and many worried about EU as threat to Russia’s identity [Levada 2007] Putin popular due to economic growth – based on high energy prices – and strong (autocratic) rule But what happens after Putin? How stable is Russia with lop-sided economy, massive social problems and increasing threats to democracy?


Quid the EU?: Quid the EU? Uncertainty over future constitutional order Legitimacy question The widening v deepening debate Leadership issues – exit Blair and Chirac How to govern a 27 + member state EU? Economic prospects – Lisbon Agenda Global challenges – energy security


Russia Internal: Russia Internal Historically Russians never been so free or prosperous, although still much poverty With few restrictions they can read, watch and listen to whatever they want – but TV and most of press under state control They can travel overseas (12 million in 2006) and start their own business But they cannot organise against the Kremlin – without serious consequences


Russia internal (2) : Russia internal (2) Putin argues that he has brought stability and renewed pride to Russia – energy superpower He is very popular and could easily win re-election - if constitution allowed Most Russians say they prefer stability and prosperity to democracy (bad image due to Yeltsin years) [but one does not exclude other] Politics centres on the Kremlin - increasing control of media and civil society – little open opposition – despite/ because of political murders eg Politkovskya. No parliamentary control or independent judiciary – corruption


Future Prospects: Future Prospects Putin seems certain to select his successor (Sergei Ivanov? Dmitry Medvedev ?) who will most likely continue current policies and protect korporatsia – intermingling of state/ business. 33% GDP controlled by companies chaired by five senior Kremlin officials What role for Putin? What prospects for diversifying economy? for tackling social problems (Aids, alcohol abuse, falling life expectancy, demographic trends, etc? Future of democracy – critical issue – do we still have common values


How Should EU react?: How Should EU react? How should the EU react? Limited leverage but cannot give up on values (democracy, human rights, rule of law) as in interest of both sides Energy blackmail not an issue – Russia needs to sell its oil and gas to Europe; other markets in Asia long way off (time/distance) and will not provide similar revenues Energy conservation a win-win situation EU needs to use every possibility (PCA, WTO, Council of Europe, G8, political dialogue, business commitments, and standards, etc) + bilateral meetings with member states to remind Kremlin of its responsibilities


Options for new agreement: Options for new agreement Abandon PCA? Prolong it? New agreement? Heading for new agreement - but Dispute over timing – Poles and others argue that EU should not rush to open negotiations Dispute over content – comprehensive strategic document or political declaration and sectoral agreement (four spaces) Legal aspects – mandate, pillar issues Ratification – 27 member states + EP


Commission mandate: Commission mandate July 2006 “.. Will provide an updated and more ambitious framework ….based on common values …. and cover whole range of EU-Russia cooperation ….fair and open development of energy relationship …and ambitious objectives for political and external security cooperation” Never before has EU attempted to negotiate such a comprehensive agreement with a third country. Why Russia and not the US?


Political Issues: Political Issues Can the EU speak with one voice? Moscow ready to exploit any divisions within the 27 – especially on energy, human rights Many disputes in common neighbourhood, Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine, Georgia But cooperation on proliferation, terrorism Putin would like to conclude agreement during his term in office - unrealistic


Legal Issues: Legal Issues What treaty base for EU negotiators? Trade comes under art 133 but broader agreement would require art 24 of TEU Comprehensive agreement or framework agreement plus sectoral agreements? Latter avoids danger of one issue derailing the negotiations Who leads for the EU? Commission for first pillar? Presidency for pillars 2 and 3? How much control will member states seek on the negotiations? How to deal with horizontal issues and institutional framework? QMV or unanimity during and at end of negotiations


Ratification: Ratification Mixed agreements require ratification by parliaments of all 27member states plus the EP Easy to envisage one or more member states holding the agreement up for some political purpose (Polish meat!) Likely to be lengthy – minimum two year – process Impact of new agreement? Implications of failure?


Conclusion: Conclusion Negotiations present huge challenge to EU – and Russia Much will depend on public perceptions on either side. European public opinion increasingly negative about Putin Need for much greater information exchange and more people-to-people contacts if EU-Russia relationship is to be successful in long-term No new Cold War – but chilly for some time