Developments and Future Outlook of Nuclear Power Programs in Asia: Developments and Future Outlook of Nuclear Power Programs in Asia Hajimu Maeda Senior Advisor The Kansai Electric Power Co., Inc. 18th World Energy Congress October 21 – 25, 2001 Buenos Aires, Argentina


Discussions in WEC Asia-Pacific Energy Forum: Discussions in WEC Asia-Pacific Energy Forum Nuclear industry has achieved excellent performance records. Nuclear energy provides a highly effective solution toward; energy security improvement global environmental problems Main issues to be solved; nuclear safety radioactive wastes management social trust


Nuclear Power Status 2000; East Asia: Nuclear Power Status 2000; East Asia Taiwan Republic of Korea China 6 16 3 4,884 12,990 2,167 53 Japan 43,491 2 4 8 2,560 3,820 6,420 4 4,492 37 104 16 24 41 1 305 34 Ｃｏｕｎｔｒｙ No. of units Total MWe (net) No. of units ％ of total TWh Total Mwe (net) Reactors in operation Reactors under construction Nuclear electricity supplied in 2000 (Source: IAEA,JAIF)


Improvement in Capacity Factor: Improvement in Capacity Factor (Source: JAIF,IAEA) Japan Korea Taiwan China


Trend of Unscheduled Outage: Trend of Unscheduled Outage (Source: IAEA) Korea Taiwan Japan China


HLW Disposal in Japan: HLW Disposal in Japan Steady progress of HLW disposal program is important to gain public acceptance. Governing law of HLW disposal enacted in June 2000 Implementing organization established in October 2000 Disposal starts in the 2030s to mid-2040s


Public Understanding and Social Trust: Public Understanding and Social Trust Insecure feelings still remain in people’s psychological depth. Credibility of the engineers and organizations is required. Transparency of organization, decision- making process and operation is needed.


Measures to Increase Transparency in Japan: Measures to Increase Transparency in Japan Concerted efforts by Japanese government and industry Governmental committees are open to the public to incorporate their opinions. Plant operating data can be publicly monitored real time. Any abnormal incidents or accidents are released immediately.


Governmental Commitment and Social Trust: Governmental Commitment and Social Trust Japanese government has pronounced repeatedly its firm stance to promote nuclear power programs. Unchanged commitment by the government is indispensable.


Nuclear Power and Business Risk: Nuclear Power and Business Risk Minimizing technological and social risks; Technological risk can be controlled to the lowest level. Industry is making utmost efforts to build up social trust. Progress is being made on back end cycle.


Business Advantages of Nuclear Power: Business Advantages of Nuclear Power Cost-stability hedging the risk of fossil fuel price hike Internalized environmental cost no CO2 emission radioactive waste cost already internalized Nuclear will play an important role.


Conclusions: Conclusions Not easy to recognize social risks; energy security and global warming Tendency to undermine the benefits we now enjoy; focusing on only the anxiety about the risks Risks and benefits should be properly evaluated; open and unbiased discussions are needed


　References: 　References


Energy Situation of Asian Region: Energy Situation of Asian Region High energy consumption growth expected; 2.8 to 3.5 % / year … higher than other regions Accounts for 1/3 of the world energy consumption by 2020 Poor energy resources and infrastructure; Improvement of energy security is critical Challenge of environmental protection; Reduction of GHG emissions


Prospect of World Economic Growth: 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1997 2010 2020 trillion US $ Prospect of World Economic Growth GDP in 1990 US$ Source: World Energy Outlook 2000 Other Asia Pacific OECD N.America OECD Europe Russia


Prospect of Energy Consumption in Asia by Regions: Prospect of Energy Consumption in Asia by Regions South Asia East Asia China Japan Australia New Zealand Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 1998


Prospect of Asian Oil Consumption, Production and Dependency on Other Regions: Prospect of Asian Oil Consumption, Production and Dependency on Other Regions Source: APERC Dependency on Other Regions Production Consumption


Energy security in Japan: Energy security in Japan Security improvement after the oil crises - improvement in energy efficiency - diversification of energy supply structure, including nuclear energy Successful reduction of crude oil share in primary energy supply from 77% to 52% Nuclear power holds a 35% share of the electric power sector


Primary Energy Supply in Japan (FY 1998): Primary Energy Supply in Japan (FY 1998) Source: National Energy Statistics, 1999 edition Hydro　4% Others　2%


LWR Capacity Factor: LWR Capacity Factor Average Gross Capacity Factor (%) U.S. Asia W. Europe World


LWR Refueling Outage Period : LWR Refueling Outage Period U.S. Median Refueling Outage Duration (Days) Asia W. Europe World


Nuclear Safety Network (NS-Net): Nuclear Safety Network (NS-Net) Inaugurated in 1999 after criticality accident at JCO to enhance safety consciousness and develop safety culture across the nuclear industry. Activities Promotion of safety culture through seminars, etc. Peer review of member facilities by specialists Exchanges and dissemination of information on 　　 nuclear safety Members : 36 nuclear organizations in Japan 14 electricity organizations 19 plant and fuel manufacturers 3 research institutes


Are you Anxious about Nuclear Accident ?: Are you Anxious about Nuclear Accident ? (Source: INSS)


What Do You Think about the Use of  Nuclear Power Generation?: What Do You Think about the Use of Nuclear Power Generation? (Source: INSS)


Milestones of HLW Disposal in Japan: Milestones of HLW Disposal in Japan Preliminary Site Survey (from late 2000’s) Detailed Site Survey (from early 2010’s) Establishment of Disposal Implementing Entity (October, 2000) Selection of Final Disposal Site (late 2020’s) Design & Safety Review Start-up (2030’s to mid 2040’s) (Source: Atomic Energy Commission, etc.) Enactment of HLW Final Disposal Act (June, 2000) Construction


Global Warming: Global Warming The Kyoto Protocol defined the commitments toward reductions in CO2 emissions for 2010. The COP-6, held in Hague last year failed to reach any agreements on specific activities. The resumed COP6 conference in Bonn reached an agreement - without US involvement, and - at the expense of politically-inspired compromises Nuclear energy was the victim of such compromises.


Realistic Approach to the Global Warming Issue: Realistic Approach to the Global Warming Issue Renewable energy sources are unlikely to take over the role of the major energy sources. Addressing the global warming issue is unrealistic without nuclear energy.


CO2 Emissions of Electric Power Industry in Japan: CO2 Emissions of Electric Power Industry in Japan (Source: FEPCJ, Sep.2001)


CO2 Emissions of Electric Power Industry in Japan; Actual / Avoided: CO2 Emissions of Electric Power Industry in Japan; Actual / Avoided (Source: FEPCJ)


Production Cost with Carbon Tax: Production Cost with Carbon Tax 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Yen/kWh Nuclear Hydro Oil LNG Coal 1,500Yen/t-C 10,000Yen/t-C 20,000Yen/t-C


Further improvement in operational efficiency: Further improvement in operational efficiency Areas for further improvements - Duration of refueling outage … still longer than international average - Duration of operating months (Fuel cycle period) … refueling outages required annually … 18 to 24 months of normal practices worldwide High capacity factor over 90% is not seldom in Western countries. Rationalization of regulations is indispensable for nuclear to be viable in deregulated market.


Electricity Generation Cost by Sources: Electricity Generation Cost by Sources Source: MITI 1999


Sustainability of Nuclear Energy: Sustainability of Nuclear Energy Spent nuclear fuel is energy-intensive waste suitable for recycling. - reprocessed to extract the plutonium for recycling - FBR increases the resource efficiency 60 times Long-term viewpoint is necessary. Japanese government and electric utilities are proceeding with the plutonium recycling policy.


Technological Development: Technological Development Development of new technology is important to remain competitive in the future - LWRs with improved safety and cost competitiveness - Next generation reactor incorporating a passive safety system - Smaller reactor for low density of electricity demand Technological innovation will help introduce nuclear power to countries with limited infrastructure. R&D of FBRs should be promoted in the long-term perspective. Continuing R&D activities are essential for training nuclear engineers and enhancing engineering capability.


International Cooperation : International Cooperation International cooperation covers: - Cooperation on nuclear safety between plant operators (e.g., WANO) - Cooperation on cultivation of human resources and safety regulations - Cooperation on nuclear-related technology and utilization of radiation Conditions for successful cooperation - Cooperation on technology as well as safety culture - Framework such as; - Bilateral agreement on peaceful uses of nuclear energy - Agreement to the IAEA safeguards - Nuclear liability system