976 Tues Costello

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Slide1: 

Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Update April 2006 Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President

Slide2: 

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis & ATA U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product Growth = Forecast

Slide3: 

Sources: Federal Reserve & ATA Manufacturing Production Year-to-Year Percent Change = Forecast 3.3%-3.8%

Slide4: 

Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce & ATA Business Investment Year-to-Year Percent Change = Forecast

Slide5: 

Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce & ATA Personal Consumption Year-to-Year Percent Change = Forecast

Slide6: 

Trucking Volumes & Revenues

Slide7: 

Source: ATA’s Monthly Truck Tonnage Index For-Hire Truck Tonnage Year-to-Year Percent Change in ATA’s Truck Tonnage Index

Slide8: 

Sources: ATA ATA’s Truck Revenue Index 2000=100; Through Feb. 2006

Slide9: 

Source: U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast to…2016 Freight Transportation Tonnage Domestic Freight; Total Increase from 2005 to 2016

Slide10: 

Capacity

Slide11: 

Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report Growth in Truckload Capacity Increase in Number of Power Units in 2005

Slide12: 

Capacity Most of the current purchases are REPLACEMENTS…the fleet was getting old. External factors are influencing sales – pre-buy for 2007. Some capacity being added, but not in significant quantities.

Slide13: 

Capacity Conclusion Supply/Demand balance should continue to tilt towards motor carriers for the foreseeable future

Slide14: 

The Driver Shortage

Slide15: 

Source: Global Insight, Inc. for ATA Growth in Trucking Measures Average Annual Growth; 2004-2014; Long-Haul Driver Demand/Supply

Slide16: 

Source: Global Insight, Inc. for ATA Driver Shortage Long-haul TL Drivers

Highway Congestion 1998 All Vehicles: 

Highway Congestion 1998 All Vehicles

Highway Congestion 2020 All Vehicles: 

Highway Congestion 2020 All Vehicles

Slide19: 

Fuel Prices

Slide20: 

Sources: Department of Energy & ATA National On-Highway Average Diesel Fuel Price ($/Gallon) Today: ≈ $2.76 EIA April Forecast: Q1 2006: $2.50 Q2: $2.65 Q3: $2.59 Q4: $2.60 2006: $2.59

Slide21: 

Source: ATA Trucking’s Annual Cost for Diesel (Billions of US$) Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel

Slide22: 

Sources: A.G. Edwards & ATA Trucking Failures vs. the Price of Diesel Fuel Failures only includes fleets with at least five trucks

Slide23: 

Thanks!