logging in or signing up IUGG2003 Brainy007 Download Post to : URL : Related Presentations : Share Add to Flag Embed Email Send to Blogs and Networks Add to Channel Uploaded from authorPOINTLite Insert YouTube videos in PowerPont slides with aS Desktop Copy embed code: (To copy code, click on the text box) Embed: URL: Thumbnail: WordPress Embed Customize Embed The presentation is successfully added In Your Favorites. Views: 92 Category: Entertainment License: All Rights Reserved Like it (0) Dislike it (0) Added: October 09, 2007 This Presentation is Public Favorites: 0 Presentation Description No description available. Comments Posting comment... Premium member Presentation Transcript Real time forecasting of geomagnetic indices: Real time forecasting of geomagnetic indices Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space PhysicsWhy forecast indices?: Why forecast indices? Summarized continuous information about time dependent phenomenon Used to drive models Large data sets available for Analysis Model evaluation Model developmentOutline: Outline Some applications using geomagnetic indices Real-time forecasts The Lund Dst model Model evaluation Short term dynamics Long term dynamics Real-time operationSlide4: Magnetospheric Specification Model http://www.sec.noaa.gov/rpc/msm/index.html - Kp Input: 50 keV el.Slide5: UPOS: Radiation Belt Environment - Solar wind - Dst Inputs: http://sd-www.jhuapl.edu/UPOS/RBE/index.html 10 keV to 5 MeV electrons 10 keV to 1 MeV protonsSWRI: SWRI http://climatology.space.swri.edu/ Input: - Dst Precipitating electron flux for energies 300 eV to 1MeVNOAA Space Weather Scales for Geomagnetic Storms http://sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/: NOAA Space Weather Scales for Geomagnetic Storms http://sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/Slide8: Input: - KpSlide9: Kp for GIC forecasts Boteler, D.H. "Assessment of geomagnetic hazard to power systems in Canada",Natural Hazards, 23, 101-120, 2001.Real-time forecasts: Real-time forecastsSlide11: Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) Models Indices http://www.srl.caltech.edu/ACE/Slide12: An element for continuously monitoring the solar windKp at RWC-Sweden: http://www.lund.irf.se/rwc Kp at RWC-SwedenDst at RWC-Sweden: http://www.lund.irf.se/rwc Dst at RWC-SwedenOverall performance of different Dst models: Overall performance of different Dst modelsAccuracy of the onset time of large slopes in Dst: Accuracy of the onset time of large slopes in DstPower spectrum: Power spectrumWavelet of Dst: Wavelet of Dst 27 d 0.5 y 1 y 1.3 yWavelet of predicted Dst: Wavelet of predicted Dst 27 d 0.5 y 1 y 1.3 yEffect of data gaps: Effect of data gapsFuture: Future List of updated forecast models ESA/TOS-EMA?, ISES?, SEC? (alphabetical order!) Plots, Data, Models Evaluation Evaluation RMS error and correlation (overall performance) Skill scores (comparative overall performance) Onset times Long term dynamics Real time performance Slide27: Indices Power grid Spacecraft You do not have the permission to view this presentation. In order to view it, please contact the author of the presentation.
IUGG2003 Brainy007 Download Post to : URL : Related Presentations : Share Add to Flag Embed Email Send to Blogs and Networks Add to Channel Uploaded from authorPOINTLite Insert YouTube videos in PowerPont slides with aS Desktop Copy embed code: (To copy code, click on the text box) Embed: URL: Thumbnail: WordPress Embed Customize Embed The presentation is successfully added In Your Favorites. Views: 92 Category: Entertainment License: All Rights Reserved Like it (0) Dislike it (0) Added: October 09, 2007 This Presentation is Public Favorites: 0 Presentation Description No description available. Comments Posting comment... Premium member Presentation Transcript Real time forecasting of geomagnetic indices: Real time forecasting of geomagnetic indices Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space PhysicsWhy forecast indices?: Why forecast indices? Summarized continuous information about time dependent phenomenon Used to drive models Large data sets available for Analysis Model evaluation Model developmentOutline: Outline Some applications using geomagnetic indices Real-time forecasts The Lund Dst model Model evaluation Short term dynamics Long term dynamics Real-time operationSlide4: Magnetospheric Specification Model http://www.sec.noaa.gov/rpc/msm/index.html - Kp Input: 50 keV el.Slide5: UPOS: Radiation Belt Environment - Solar wind - Dst Inputs: http://sd-www.jhuapl.edu/UPOS/RBE/index.html 10 keV to 5 MeV electrons 10 keV to 1 MeV protonsSWRI: SWRI http://climatology.space.swri.edu/ Input: - Dst Precipitating electron flux for energies 300 eV to 1MeVNOAA Space Weather Scales for Geomagnetic Storms http://sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/: NOAA Space Weather Scales for Geomagnetic Storms http://sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/Slide8: Input: - KpSlide9: Kp for GIC forecasts Boteler, D.H. "Assessment of geomagnetic hazard to power systems in Canada",Natural Hazards, 23, 101-120, 2001.Real-time forecasts: Real-time forecastsSlide11: Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) Models Indices http://www.srl.caltech.edu/ACE/Slide12: An element for continuously monitoring the solar windKp at RWC-Sweden: http://www.lund.irf.se/rwc Kp at RWC-SwedenDst at RWC-Sweden: http://www.lund.irf.se/rwc Dst at RWC-SwedenOverall performance of different Dst models: Overall performance of different Dst modelsAccuracy of the onset time of large slopes in Dst: Accuracy of the onset time of large slopes in DstPower spectrum: Power spectrumWavelet of Dst: Wavelet of Dst 27 d 0.5 y 1 y 1.3 yWavelet of predicted Dst: Wavelet of predicted Dst 27 d 0.5 y 1 y 1.3 yEffect of data gaps: Effect of data gapsFuture: Future List of updated forecast models ESA/TOS-EMA?, ISES?, SEC? (alphabetical order!) Plots, Data, Models Evaluation Evaluation RMS error and correlation (overall performance) Skill scores (comparative overall performance) Onset times Long term dynamics Real time performance Slide27: Indices Power grid Spacecraft