openingremarks

SAFETY & MOBILITY OVERVIEWThoughts on the Future Alan E. Pisarski : 

SAFETY & MOBILITY OVERVIEW Thoughts on the Future Alan E. Pisarski AAA SAFETY FOUNDATION Oct. 2005

Thoughts on the future : 

Thoughts on the future Setting a context for: Human Factors Vehicles Infrastructure Systems

THE BROADEST ISSUE: 

THE BROADEST ISSUE WHAT IS THE ROLE OF TRANSPORTATION IN OUR SOCIETY? Changes with society’s structure Changes with incomes and economy Changes with age and family structure Changes with education Changes with goals: personal and other HOW DO WE MAKE SAFETY A MAJOR PART OF IT?

FOR MOST THINGS IN SOCIETY – DEMOGRAPHY IS DESTINY – PERHAPS THE CENTRAL TRUTH IN TRANSPORTATION AND VEHICLE SAFETY: 

FOR MOST THINGS IN SOCIETY – DEMOGRAPHY IS DESTINY – PERHAPS THE CENTRAL TRUTH IN TRANSPORTATION AND VEHICLE SAFETY

TRANSPORTATION: : 

TRANSPORTATION: THE COLLISSION OF DEMOGRAPHY WITH GEOGRAPHY THE INTERACTION OF DEMOGRAPHY WITH ECONOMICS AND TECHNOLOGY

We Have Survived A Difficult Period: 

We Have Survived A Difficult Period The baby boomers coming of age ---- working age and driving age Women joining the labor force in vast numbers Extraordinary growth in just-in-time freight Extraordinary growth in foreign trade This has almost paralyzed action A sisyphean challenge NOW WE HAVE NEW CHALLENGES

There’s Greater Stability in Future Travel Demand : 

There’s Greater Stability in Future Travel Demand More Stable Licenses/Vehicles Workers Population & Households Migration Sources of Change Incomes Locations Immigrants Aging

New Forces Of Change: 

New Forces Of Change DEMOCRATIZATION OF MOBILITY IMMIGRATION THAT OLD “VILLAIN” AFFLUENCE LACK OF SKILLED WORKERS DISPERSAL TECHNOLOGIES GLOBALIZATION OF ALMOST EVERYTHING

END OF THE BOOM: 

END OF THE BOOM 1980-90 18.5 MILLION WORKERS 1990-2000 13.3 MILLION WORKERS Our problem may be too few commuters not too many!

40 year trend in Mode Use– millions of commuters : 

40 year trend in Mode Use– millions of commuters

There’s more to transportation than just commuting!: 

There’s more to transportation than just commuting! COMMUTING (20% of local psgr travel) OTHER LOCAL TRAVEL TOURISM SERVICES (power/phone/cable/sewer/water) PUBLIC VEHICLES (gov. services) URBAN GOODS MOVEMENT THRU PASSENGER TRAVEL THRU FREIGHT TRAVEL  

Congestion is Getting Worse In Cities of All Sizes: 

Congestion is Getting Worse In Cities of All Sizes Hours per Traveler Very Large = 3 M + Large = 1 M - 3 M Medium = 500 K - 1 M Small = Below 500 K Source: TTI Tim Lomax

The great loss from congestion is not the extra three minutes it takes to get home: 

The great loss from congestion is not the extra three minutes it takes to get home HOUSEHOLDS It’s the decline in the number of jobs I could reach in ½ hr! It’s the decline in the number of affordable homes accessible to my work! It’s the decline in the assurance of arriving on time! BUSINESSES It’s the decline in the number of workers within ½ hr of my employment site! It’s the decline in the number of suppliers & customers within ½ hr of my business! It’s the decline in shipment reliability!

What about tourism and long distance travel?: 

What about tourism and long distance travel? Conflicts between visitations and preservation “loving things to death.” National Parks being shifted to Transit? We drive to where we want to walk Speed and cost improvements A world of continued security threats?

The Focus Is On Big Metros: 

The Focus Is On Big Metros 60% of population in big metros (2000) 1960 34 areas over 1 million 1990 39 areas over 1 million 2000 50 areas over 1 million 60/20/20 big metro/metro/rural Now 12 areas over 5 meg = 100 million Focus of national issues is in big metros but growth is rural – “donut” metros

Slide17: 

Half of pop in suburbs

Forces Favoring Continued Dispersal: 

Forces Favoring Continued Dispersal OLDER POPULATIONS MOVE LESS HOME OWNERS MORE STABLE 70% MULTIWORKER HOUSEHOLDS AFFLUENCE FAVORS SUBURBS TREND TO SOUTH AND WEST (82%) FEWER HOUSEHOLDS FORMED “DISPERSAL TECHNOLOGIES”

DISPERSAL TECHNOLOGIES: 

DISPERSAL TECHNOLOGIES ALL GROUND TRANSPORT AIR TRANSPORT OVERNIGHT DELIVERY TELEPHONE/CELLPHONE RADIO/TELEVISION COMPUTER INTERNET Anti-dispersal tech? -- the elevator!

Long Term Driving-Related Trends: 

Long Term Driving-Related Trends

WE ARE AT VEHICLE SATURATION? : 

WE ARE AT VEHICLE SATURATION? POPULATION TO VEHICLE RATIO 1900-1995 2.6 1.3

THE DEMOCRATIZATION OF MOBILITY HAS MORE TO GO! : 

THE DEMOCRATIZATION OF MOBILITY HAS MORE TO GO!

Perhaps the greatest transportation technological innovation of the last half of the century: 

Perhaps the greatest transportation technological innovation of the last half of the century

Creates a vehicle fleet that’s hard to replace : 

Creates a vehicle fleet that’s hard to replace

Annual Trips Per Household by Household Income - 2001: 

Annual Trips Per Household by Household Income - 2001 USA FFX

Transportation Spending by Workers/hh: 

Transportation Spending by Workers/hh

Work Force Issues: 

Work Force Issues Older workers in labor force Even more females in labor force Even more variable schedules Work hours – a lot like part time Skills matches – more spreading out Amenities-based employment

Flattening Age Trends: 

Flattening Age Trends

Almost a perfect 4 part split: 

Almost a perfect 4 part split

Another 4 part split: 

Another 4 part split

VMT/DRIVER - Male: 

VMT/DRIVER - Male

VMT/DRIVER - Male: 

VMT/DRIVER - Male

VMT/DRIVER - Male: 

VMT/DRIVER - Male

FEMALE VMT/DRIVER – SAME PICTURE : 

FEMALE VMT/DRIVER – SAME PICTURE

The immigrant population quickly looks like other commuters : 

The immigrant population quickly looks like other commuters

Heavy carpooling shifts quickly: 

Heavy carpooling shifts quickly

The Personal Vehicle And Our Future: 

The Personal Vehicle And Our Future A More/Less Affluent Pop? A Higher/Lower Density Pop? Auto use more/less affordable? Age distribution more/less oriented to the auto? Longer/shorter Trip length? Purpose changes? Freight more/less valuable ? Freight more/less time sensitive? Destinations more/less dispersed?

WHAT DOES THE FUTURE LOOK LIKE?: 

WHAT DOES THE FUTURE LOOK LIKE? MORE AFFLUENCE LOWER DENSITY AUTO AFFORDABILITY AUTO PRONE AGE AUTO TRIP PURPOSE DISPERSED DESTINATIONS HIGHER FREIGHT VALUE MORE TIME SENSITIVITY DEMOCRATIZATION OF MOBILITY More Less More More More More More More More

Infrastructure Issues: 

Infrastructure Issues Feds - an unreliable partner A new functional classification Re-defining failure Retrofitting the system 1/3rd of fatalities facility related? – Is it “The wrong question!”

Technology and its users: 

Technology and its users “Here Now!” Transparency Staged Learning (radio a distraction!) Implementation User acceptance Institutional acceptance Shifts in roles public/private

The nexus of interactions : 

ECONOMY TECHNOLOGY SOCIO-POLITICAL PATTERNS The nexus of interactions

BIG INTERACTION ISSUES: 

BIG INTERACTION ISSUES TRUCKS VS CARS SAFETY VS FUEL EFFICIENCY TECHNOLOGY VS OLDER USERS YOUNGER DRIVERS VS OLDER KNOWN ROUTES VS LOST LONG TRIPS VS SHORT GOV’T VS PRIVATE CONTROL VS FREEDOM INSTITUTIONS VS INDIVIDUALS CULTURE CLASH

CULTURE CLASH: 

CULTURE CLASH NEW IDEA! OBEY TRAFFIC LIGHTS! FAST VS SLOW CAREFUL VS CARELESS VARYING SENSE OF ROLE OF RULES EXPERIENCE ELSEWHERE? DOES GOV’T CONTRIBUTE TO LACK OF RESPECT? E.G. SILLY SPEED LIMITS? STOP SIGNS AS SPEED BUMPS?

Shifts in roles: 

Shifts in roles Shift from road-way based to on-board tech = shift from public cost and responsibility to user = shifts between vehicle producer and vehicle operator New rules? Tech-driven or liability-driven?

A FUTURE WORLD WHERE TIME, RELIABILITY AND RESPONSIVENESS ARE KEY: 

A FUTURE WORLD WHERE TIME, RELIABILITY AND RESPONSIVENESS ARE KEY KEYS Personal Vs Mass On-demand Vs Scheduled Private Vs Public services Self-operated Vs Managed Time sensitive Vs Cost sensitive Security issues

Making the vehicle a better citizen!: 

Making the vehicle a better citizen! Around a hundred years and we still act like it’s a passing fad Most seriously re pedestrian interactions Vehicle interactions Trucks Pedestrians Vehicle types and operating regimes Parking

Vehicle – Pedestrian Interactions: 

Vehicle – Pedestrian Interactions We drive to where we want to walk More separation More controls Parking/malls/markets/strip More vehicle-free zones? Spending more?

Making the case for safety: 

Making the case for safety Safety costs 3-4x congestion costs – $200b/yr – excluding intangible losses quantify and expand discussion Planning is more than Air Quality compliance SAFTEA-LU has added safety and economic development Provide Safety Assessment and Planning tools

The AASHTO SHSP : 

The AASHTO SHSP Goal: 10-15% reduction in fatalities and injuries Proposed 22 areas $15.3B cap cost $370M annual cost 12 -15,000 lives/yr 1,000,000 injuries

A New Plan for Planning for States And MPO’s: 

A New Plan for Planning for States And MPO’s MEET SAFETY NEEDS SUPPORT ECON DEVELOPMENT ASSURE SECURITY MAINTAIN MOBILITY/RELIABILITY SERVE AGING POPULATIONS SERVE LOW-INCOME POPULATIONS

Measurement is pathetic: 

Measurement is pathetic Loss of denominators (CFS & NPTS) What shares of VMT should functional classes have? VMT by Age by func class? New functional classes needed? Accident potentials “Near-miss” observations International comparisons!

tidbits: 

tidbits Older groups tend to be the ones with the older vehicles – effects? Training to get a CDL has taught my son what trucks can and cannot do and has made him a better driver of his personal vehicle -How do we capitalize on that? Are the annoying and dangerous people who cut you off – just believing their side view mirror?

Is Our Transportation System In Place? : 

Is Our Transportation System In Place? A nation that by the end of the decade can expect: Another 30 million people And probably as many vehicles And another $3 trillion in GDP Cannot say that its transportation work is done! WE ADD A CANADA EACH DECADE!

Thank you!: 

Thank you! Alan E. Pisarski 703 941-4257 alanpisarski.com

“Efficiency” in transportationBEWARE! : 

“Efficiency” in transportation BEWARE! A Very Dangerous Word THE EFFICIENCY OF WHO OR WHAT? The key to all transportation is the efficiency of the users –– not the vehicles That’s why trucks not trains – cars not buses School bus efficiency vs students ! One colossal pizza delivery per night per neighborhood is “efficient”! THE AMERICAN PEOPLE HAVE NO OBLIGATION TO LIVE IN WAYS THAT MAKE GOVERNANCE MORE EFFICIENT!

% of drivers in pre-1988 vehicles: 

% of drivers in pre-1988 vehicles Aging population tend to be the ones with the aging vehicles

Work Mode Shares % USA More of the Same?: 

Work Mode Shares % USA More of the Same? Transit sort-of holds 5% Carpool up; share down Walking declines again Work at home (22% incr.) passes walking SOV increase almost exceeds # of workers as in 90 But more variability

WHAT ARE THE ISSUES: 

WHAT ARE THE ISSUES THE SEARCH FOR SKILLED WORKERS AGING POP’S NEEDS/DEMANDS RECOGNIZING CHANGING CHARACTER OF DEMAND “NICHINESS” OF DEMAND ROLE IN SOCIETY A MEASUREMENT SYSTEM THAT WORKS

A key to the future?: 

A key to the future?

Going forward: 

Going forward The great Commuter boom is behind us Most of the determinants of travel will be more stable in the future Racial and Ethnic Minorities will be a major source of travel growth in the future Immigrant populations will be a major source of growth When will the Democratization of Mobility be Complete?

DEMOGRAPHIC PATTERNS TO WATCH: 

DEMOGRAPHIC PATTERNS TO WATCH Immigrant arrivals? Where do immigrants go? Minorities & mobility? Where do aging baby-boomers go? Multiple home ownership? Even more women in workplace? Work by >65 pop? Workplace patterns? Trip chains