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The Implications of Peak Oil: 

The Implications of Peak Oil By Ron. A Leng

The Challenge for Future Agriculture : 

The Challenge for Future Agriculture World population is increasing rapidly now 6.5 billion may rise to 10 billion Food production has to keep pace with population Quantity Quality,largely a balanced protein ,mineral and energy intake Protein availability critical for health and well being of people.Requirements for essential amino acids from plant and animal protein

Factors in future trends in animal agriculture: 

Factors in future trends in animal agriculture Increasing demand for meat and milk[approx 3% /Year in Asia World bank forecasts that this will be met from improved industrial pig and poultry production [huge increase in the requirements for grains] Grain price is tied to the cost of oil Oil prices are bound to increase as depletion of easily recovered reserves occurs Oil use in the world will have to be decreased or made more efficient to meet eventual pollution problems

All Populations Are Controlled by Combination of Factors [The 4Ps].: 

All Populations Are Controlled by Combination of Factors [The 4Ps]. Poverty[Availability and share of resources] Pollution [Contamination of the environment ] Predation [Taking the resources of others to survive] Pestilence [Overcrowding and insults to the environment allows spread of disease e.g. AIDS] IN HUMAN POPULATIONS THE OVERALL FACTOR IS POLITICS. Frisch & Leng 2002

Human ingenuity has allowed the planet to grow to a population of 6.5 billion possibly rising to 9 billion by:: 

Human ingenuity has allowed the planet to grow to a population of 6.5 billion possibly rising to 9 billion by: Increasing the resource base in terms of energy, water, land and food-Poverty Controlling local pollution and have not yet critically polluted the atmosphere-Pollution Containing and overcoming pestilence, though the present disease pandemics appear to be out of control [HIV infections and SARS]-Pestilence Minimising predation of resources [though there is still unbalanced uses of resources]-Predation

Slide6: 

Climate Change is For Real ! From 1979 to 2003 there has been significant depletion of the Arctic ice cap as shown by satellite photography National Geographic Sept. 2004

Slide7: 

Just one of the species to become extinct

Slide8: 

The potential of global oil production to peak is already causing shock waves through the world’s economy and reshaping geopolitics. This event will precipitate a cascade of environmental, economic, political and cultural change for which we are totally unprepared It has the potential to eclipse global warming as the driving force for sustainable development PEAK OIL--Barely recognised or stuck in “ the too hard basket” by politicians, scientists and world leaders

Slide9: 

The Exploitation of Oil Has A Typical Bell Shaped Curve of Depletion. The World Depletion Curve is Simply The Sum Of All Fields.

Slide10: 

North Sea Oil has followed the pattern of exploitation precisely as predicted by Hubbert [1956]

Slide11: 

Tasmanian Scallops Sturgeon and Caviar Bardi 2005 How general is the Hubert Curve- Lisbon ASPO

Production Forecast : 

Production Forecast

Oil has largely run out for many countries and there is very little to be discovered: 

Oil has largely run out for many countries and there is very little to be discovered

Discovery Trend: 

Discovery Trend Confirmed by Exxon-Mobil

The United States with 2% of World Oil Reserves Uses 25% of World Oil: 

The United States with 2% of World Oil Reserves Uses 25% of World Oil

A major problem is getting your mind around the figures. This huge find [Australian January 2005] 170 million barrel represents 2 days of world supplies: 

A major problem is getting your mind around the figures. This huge find [Australian January 2005] 170 million barrel represents 2 days of world supplies

Summary of World Oil Supplies 1: 

Summary of World Oil Supplies 1 Oil use in the world has increased to around 80 million barrels/day or 1 billion barrels are used every 12 days All the major oil fields were discovered long ago and many have exceeded Peak Production and are in decline. Spare capacity is about 2 million barrels per day The discovery of large oil fields [that is>0.5 billion barrels or 60 days of world requirement ] has dwindle to zero, small finds are occurring but not at a sufficient rate and global oil production capacity is contracting by over 1 million barrels each day every year.

Summary of World Oil Supplies 2: 

Summary of World Oil Supplies 2 Demand for oil ,particularly by China, India, Pakistan and some Latin American countries is increasing at unprecedented rates. Global demand is expected to increase by 1 million barrels every day each year Result: Oil will be a scarce and expensive resource in years to come

Slide19: 

The Greatest Disappearing Act in the World Oil

Slide20: 

There is a lot more to a countries oil reserves than meets the eye Few [None?] countries or companies provide a transparent picture of their reserves

Lack of transparency of oil reserves, may hide an imminent oil scarcity: 

Lack of transparency of oil reserves, may hide an imminent oil scarcity The Middle East has 75% of the world’s remaining oil. Ghawar [Saudi Arabia] had 100 billion barrels of reserves [only 1 field of this size has been discovered] Ghawar has been mined, from its beginning, to maintain high flow rates by pumping in sea water to lift the oil Ghawar is now pumping a mix of 55 % water and 45 % oil Experience shows that when the water cut gets to 70-80% water, the field collapses much more rapidly then indicated by the Hubbert model [ M C Ruppert[2004] http://www.yubanet.com/artman/publish/areticle_15732.shtml

Saudi Arabia Is Middle East’s Prime Oil Producer: 

Saudi Arabia Is Middle East’s Prime Oil Producer Most Middle East producers have passed their prime. Iran peaked at 6 million barrels/day in 1970s. Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Syria and Yemen have all passed peak output. UAE and Iraq might have growth prospects. Many giant Middle East oilfields are far past Peak Oil. Saudi Arabia has 36% of Middle East reserves.

Ghawar, the mother of all oil fields: 

Ghawar, the mother of all oil fields Discovered in 1948 Huge anticline structure 250km by 30km wide 3400 wells Reserves when discovered 100 billion barrels Current production 5 million barrels per day 7% of the Northern tip of the field produces 2 million barrels per day 7 million barrels of water pumped in daily to recover 5 million barrels of oil

THE PROBLEM: PEAKING OF WORLD CONVENTIONAL OIL PRODUCTION : 

THE PROBLEM: PEAKING OF WORLD CONVENTIONAL OIL PRODUCTION Projection Source 2006-2007 Bakhitari, A.M.S. 2007-2009 Simmons, M.R. After 2007 Skrebowski, C. 2008 Campbell / ASPO Before 2009 Deffeyes, K.S. Before 2010 Goodstein, D. After 2010 World Energy Council 2010-2020 Laherrere, J. 2016 EIA nominal case After 2020 CERA 2025 or later Shell ---------------------------------------------------------------- No visible peak Lynch, M.C. 2000 2010 2020 2030 SAIC / MISI

2007-2008 is most likely time for massive increase in oil prices: 

2007-2008 is most likely time for massive increase in oil prices Production will drop by 3-4 million barrels/day New capacity coming on line will increase by 8 million barrels/day Spare capacity would be 4 million barrels/day Therefore 3-4 years of increasing demand, which is likely to be 1 million barrels /day each year, will wipe any potential surplus and severe oil shortages will occur These predictions do not allow for a sudden drop in Saudi Oil or disruption to supply by war, terrorism or political upheaval etc

Peak Oil means supply never grows and probably begins to decline. : 

Peak Oil means supply never grows and probably begins to decline. Demand then exceeds supply. Prices rise (but supplies do not). Fierce energy competition ensues among key users. Economic rationing will divert supplies to highest price purchasers and highest need areas. Lifestyles have to change to accommodate less supply. Matthew Simmons, Simmons & Company Intl.2005

Price Shocks - the first signs: 

Price Shocks - the first signs Prices rise then crash with recessions Shocks as production capacity limits breached Five times what it costs to produce

Conclusions for global resource depletion : 

Conclusions for global resource depletion Bell Shaped”, or “Hubbert” curve is approximately valid Curve shape may be asymetric (technology factors?) Prices start rising before peak Rise of prices is exponential and strongly oscillating

The CIBC answer : 

The CIBC answer Assessed the likely supply shortfall and the oil price needed to reduce demand 2006 1.0mn b/d and $61/barrel 2007 2.8mn b/d and $70/barrel 2008 4.8mn b/d and $80/barrel 2009 6.7mn b/d and $90/barrel 2010 8.9mn b/d and $101/barrel

Who gets hurt if oil becomes scarce and prices rise : 

Who gets hurt if oil becomes scarce and prices rise Everyone[ particularly the poor] USA uses 30% of the world’s oil and imports 25% of that from Saudi Arabia will be the worst hit The underdeveloped and developing countries that will be denied development The oil producers who may be invaded for oil security [The oil grab]

Slide31: 

The end of oil means more expensive goods

 Most significant effects of scarce and expensive oil. : 

 Most significant effects of scarce and expensive oil. Gradual, permanent cut-off of fuel for transport and for industrial machinery. Global trade will greatly decline. Decline in agricultural production--depends heavily on fertilizers and chemicals made from oil. massive food shortages, increased by competition for food crops as feedstock for bio-fuels such as vegetable oil and alcohol Shortages of 500,000 other goods made from oil. Therefore, reduction of virtually all business and government activity. Very serious unemployment

Where are the likely most sensitive areas: 

Where are the likely most sensitive areas Environment and global warming[greater use of coal] All forms of transport Car makers and subsidiaries Tourism Food/goods transport Natural resource movement [coal,ores etc] Wars on terror [USA spends approx $20/barrel for protection of its supply] All food producing systems Social structures Suburbs v City v Self Sustaining communities

The most serious area may be a downturn in agriculture and food production 1: 

The most serious area may be a downturn in agriculture and food production 1 In the developed countries. Reduced industrial scale farming with single crop such as corn and soybean. Return to permaculture incorporating microbial activities for fertilisers and recycling of nutrients [requiring more people in agriculture] Social restructuring of rural, city and suburban communities Production of home grown fuels and competition for food, feed and feedstock for local consumption and export

The most serious area may be a downturn in agriculture and food production 2: 

The most serious area may be a downturn in agriculture and food production 2 Developing countries: down turn in staples greater need for small integrated systems dependent on recycling of nutrients What happens when another Rwanda or Dufur[2.4 million refugees presently without support] erupts in a future world with few food reserves? The need for fuel for cooking could result in deforestation and erosion in countries such as Nigeria

Human population explosion coincided with the increasing availability of “Cheap Oil”: 

Human population explosion coincided with the increasing availability of “Cheap Oil” First Oil Well ?

Future food production will need to be based on lower inputs of fossil fuels : 

Future food production will need to be based on lower inputs of fossil fuels Chicken, pork, fish will become expensive. Reduced industrial production more alternative feed systems Ruminant, horse, rabbit meat from cellulose biomass will be more attractive [crop residues] Fruits ,vegetables produced with permaculture principles will predominate Crop and animal protein production will need to be integrated It’s still down the track but needs to be planned now

World Cereal Stocks [Estimated total carryover of cereals]: 

World Cereal Stocks [Estimated total carryover of cereals] FAO Rome 2004

World cereal grain production: total and per person: 

World cereal grain production: total and per person

GLOBAL CONSUMPTION OF BEEF, PORK AND POULTRY 1968 - 2003: 

GLOBAL CONSUMPTION OF BEEF, PORK AND POULTRY 1968 - 2003

Trends in the world use of cereal grain as feed for livestock: 

Trends in the world use of cereal grain as feed for livestock Delgado et al 2002

In the USA approximately 1400 liters of oil equivalents are expended to feed each citizen; energy consumption is broken down : 

In the USA approximately 1400 liters of oil equivalents are expended to feed each citizen; energy consumption is broken down 31% manufacturing inorganic fertilizers 19% operation of field machinery 16% transportation 13% for irrigation 8% raising livestock [not feed lot feed] 5% crop drying 5% pesticide production 8% other inputs Does not include energy costs of packaging, refrigeration,transport to outlets and energy for cooking

World ethanol production by country. USA is likely to become the world’s largest producer using maize as the feedstock: 

World ethanol production by country. USA is likely to become the world’s largest producer using maize as the feedstock Berg C[2003]World biofuel production Int. Sugar J, 1 [1] 5-15

Slide44: 

Ethanol Inducing Policies are being applied widely in the world

How the US Farm policy is seen by Peter Nicholson Australian July 31st 2003: 

How the US Farm policy is seen by Peter Nicholson Australian July 31st 2003

Slide46: 

Fuel on their minds Nicholson, Australian August 2004 Major powers jockey for position and risk all-out war before the 2007-8 Oil Cliff [ MC Ruppert 2005. Writing in the wilderness publications].

Australia’s available energy supply in years at current production levels.: 

Australia’s available energy supply in years at current production levels. Australia is in a particularly dire situation considering the alarming decline in Australia's self-sufficiency in crude oil, which forecasters say means we will have to import most of our crude oil and petroleum products from overseas by 2008.Which corresponds with ASPO's predicted global peak. http://www.energybulletin.net/newswire.php?id=698 Source :Securing Australia’s Energy Future[2003]

Oil-shakers?: 

Oil-shakers? Australia’s proven reserves were downgraded by 50% for oil and 60% for gas in a recent government document yet we go on exporting

Slide50: 

Transport is 95% dependent on inexpensive oil: However the infrastructure can still be helpful!!! 70% of oil demand is for transport in USA 80% in Australia

The future price of grain will favour the ruminant?: 

The future price of grain will favour the ruminant? Ruminants have the capacity to use biomass not used by monogastric animals Ruminant production is at a low efficiency in most countries with tremendous scope to improve The supply of supplements needed to use the biomass will arise from by-products of the feed and fuel industries Ruminants are multi-purpose for power,food products

The price of steak from grain fed ruminants must be measured in terms of oil costs involved in growing the feed, managing and marketing the meat: 

The price of steak from grain fed ruminants must be measured in terms of oil costs involved in growing the feed, managing and marketing the meat I kg of beef requires approximately 5.7 litres of oil. Or to produce this little beauty at 600kg live weight 1075 litres of oil National Geographic June 2004

Oil Utilization Per Capita in Developed and Developing Countries [China/Indonesia/Africa/South America] : 

Oil Utilization Per Capita in Developed and Developing Countries [China/Indonesia/Africa/South America] 3+ 2.25-3 1.5-2.5 0.75-1.55 0-.75

Half the world’s children are living in poverty and the situation will worsen with the end of cheap oil: 

Half the world’s children are living in poverty and the situation will worsen with the end of cheap oil 35 countries faced food emergencies in 2004 caused by drought or conflict or both The worst effected were in Africa [Eritrea, Burundi, Congo, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Zambia] and Haiti and North Korea End of cheap oil will ensure that this worsens as costs of food production and competition for crops or land for food, feed and feedstock intensifies reducing world cereal grain stocks

Millions of the World’s Children are Undernourished : 

Millions of the World’s Children are Undernourished

Permaculture and clean energy: 

Permaculture and clean energy Composting for fertilizer Mandela urban garden Worm farm Wind farm

Slide57: 

Livestock Biodigestor Pond Crops, trees, shrubs Manure Effluent Irrigation Feed Family Biogas Excreta The ecological farm

Slide58: 

The future resides in capturing solar energy and harnessing it to fuel our needs for energy Solar energy trapped on 1% of the world’s surface is enough

Hydrogen economy—A false economy: 

Hydrogen economy—A false economy To replace UK’s oil burning vehicles with greener hydrogen powered cars would require erection of 100,000 wind turbines or 100 new nuclear power stations Source; A an J Oswald, Warrick University www.iom3.org/materialsworld

The Sea Current Option: 

The Sea Current Option A huge source of renewable and sustainable energy is in the kinetic energy of sea currents. There are a number of propeller systems, oscillating vane and aerofoil systems These solutions are trying to adapt wind technology directly to a dense slow moving fluid. Deflecting Vane Technology is by far the most efficient. It increases energy density upstream from the turbine by a factor of 3 callaghan@eircom.net

Utilisation of Silicon as an intermediary between renewable energy and hydrogen: 

Utilisation of Silicon as an intermediary between renewable energy and hydrogen Transportation and storage Reactive Silicon Powder Silicon oxide or sand Hydrogen Electrolysis Of water Electricity +air Renewable energy is used to generate electricity to electrolyse water and hydrogen is produced. Silicon from sand is generated using the hydrogen as an energy source. Silicon is safely transported and hydrogen or ammonia is generated by reaction with air . Efficiency 66% Energy Wind Solar Wave Thermal gradients Biomass etc Silicon nitride +water Ammonia+ sand Hydrogen +water or alklali Hydrogen +sand Energy source for the reaction

The way ahead is to buy time by reducing world consumption of fuel. : 

The way ahead is to buy time by reducing world consumption of fuel. Massive education effort Allow world prices to rise modestly Develop sustainable farming systems maximising the use of microbes and recycling of nutrients Take a cut in standard of living More fuel efficiency less cars/capita-more public transport Massively invest in alternative, renewable energy resources now Reduce flagrant use of oil resources Sir Richard Branson, Greg Norman John Travolta More amicable approach to resource sharing and detente [terrorism?] Rationalise world trade-de-emphasise globilisation

Depletion Protocol Campbell- 2005 Lisbon: 

Depletion Protocol Campbell- 2005 Lisbon Cut oil imports to match world Depletion Rate. World price would moderate allowing poor countries to buy minimal needs avoiding profiteering by oil companies & M.East Force consumers to face reality Experience from Kyoto Protocol-- not a chance [my thoughts]

Slide65: 

The father of the peak oil movement, the American geologist M. King Hubbert, said that an economic model based on infinite growth but fueled by finite natural resources is doomed. Ironically, there’s also a saying from oil-rich Saudi Arabia that goes: "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet airplane. His son will ride a camel."

Slide66: 

Planning for the transition is much more important then debating whether it will start in 2005 or 2025 UNE’s Opportunities – Leadership in Resource economics/management Biotechnology- Agriculture and food production Sustainable permaculture [integrated farming systems] Renewable energy [biomass, solar (Hydro,wind, sea)]

Slide67: 

The World Needs To Rapidly Develop New Energy Sources Thank you for your attention and good luck to the young The End

Slide68: 

We believe oil markets may have entered the early stages of what we have referred to as a 'super spike' period ...Resilient demand has caused us to revise up our super-spike range to $50-$105 per bbl up from $50-$80 per bbl previously. Goldman-Sachs Global Investment Research 2005 The combination of the news that there's no new Saudi Light coming on stream for the next seven years plus the 27% projected decline from existing fields means Hubbert's Peak has arrived in Saudi Arabia. Bank of Montreal 2005

Slide69: 

A March 2005 report for the U.S. Department of Energy entitled “The Mitigation of the Peaking of World Oil Production” stated: “Without timely mitigation, world supply/demand balance will be achieved through massive demand destruction (shortages), accompanied by huge oil price increases, both of which would create a long period of significant economic hardship worldwide. “Waiting until world conventional oil production peaks before initiating crash program mitigation leaves the world with a significant liquid fuel deficit for two decades or longer.”

World nuclear power: 

World nuclear power The first nuclear power stations began operating in 1950 31 countries have 440 commercial nuclear power stations producing 364,000MWeof total capacity 56 countries operate 284 research reactors 220 reactors power ships and submarines 50 new reactors are in construction or are planned including 20 in China Source WMC and Nuclear Energy Agency R Gottliebsen Australian 29-30 Jan 2005

Nuclear power the bridging fuel?: 

Nuclear power the bridging fuel?

As the price of oil sky rockets governments abandon their nuclear –free resolutions: 

As the price of oil sky rockets governments abandon their nuclear –free resolutions

World Uranium Resources: 

World Uranium Resources Source WMC and Nuclear Energy Agency R Gottliebsen Australian 29-30 Jan 2005

World Energy Generation By Fuel: 

World Energy Generation By Fuel Source WMC and Nuclear Energy Agency R Gottliebsen Australian 29-30 Jan 2005

Slide76: 

Australia is in a particularly dire situation considering the the alarming decline in Australia's self-sufficiency in crude oil, which forecasters say means we will have to import most of our crude oil and petroleum products from overseas by 2008. Which corresponds with ASPO's predicted global peak.

Three key facts are of overriding importance to world events today.1 : 

Three key facts are of overriding importance to world events today.1 FACT ONE - Crude oil prices have doubled since 2001, but oil companies have increased their budgets for exploring new oil fields by only a small fraction. Likewise, U.S. refineries are working close to capacity, yet no new refinery has been constructed since 1976. And oil tankers are fully booked, but outdated ships are being decommissioned faster than new ones are being built. http://www.ems.org/rls/2004/01/28/oil_supply_short.html Source M C Ruppert[2005] www.fromthewilderness.com.

Three key facts are of overriding importance to world events today. 2 : 

Three key facts are of overriding importance to world events today. 2 FACT 2.The rate of major new oil field discoveries has Fallen dramatically in recent years. [Global discovery peaked in the 1960s. Per capita energy production peaked in 1979. -Ed] There were 13 discoveries of over 500 million barrels in 2000, six in 2001 and just two in 2002, according to the industry analysts IHS Energy. For 2003, not a single new discovery over 500 million barrels has been reported. Murray Duffin, Energy Pulse, November 17, 2004 Source M C Ruppert[2004] www.fromthewilderness.com.

Three key facts are of overriding importance to world events today.3: 

Three key facts are of overriding importance to world events today.3 FACT 3. For China and India to reach just one-quarter of the level of US oil consumption, world output would have to rise by 44 percent. To get to half the US level, world production would need to nearly double. That's impossible. The world's oil reserves are finite. And the view is spreading that global oil output will soon peak. -- The Christian Science Monitor, January 20, Source M C Ruppert www.fromthewilderness.com.

Hydrogen is seen as the next fuel for mobile vehicles but there are no free gifts 1: 

Hydrogen is seen as the next fuel for mobile vehicles but there are no free gifts 1 Life expectancy of a very expensive fuel cell engine is only 200 hours. Commercial hydrogen is produced from natural gas which is also in decline [Ruppert 2004]

Hydrogen is seen as the next fuel for mobile vehicles but there are no free gifts 2: 

Hydrogen is seen as the next fuel for mobile vehicles but there are no free gifts 2 Oil would be needed in every phase of our conversion to hydrogen powered locomotion or any other form of alternative fuel engine for that matter] to Mine melt and transport the ore Transport the metals to the factories and the goods to market To provide the electricity to manage the construction side[ for example every tyre “contains’ approx 25 litres of oil] To make the paint plastics and solvents needed

Hydrogen is seen as the next fuel for mobile vehicles but there are no free gifts 3: 

Hydrogen is seen as the next fuel for mobile vehicles but there are no free gifts 3 Oil would be needed in every phase of our conversion to hydrogen powered locomotion or any other form of alternative fuel engine for that matter] to Transport the workers too and from the factories and at times to construct the factories themselves and provide residences for the workers where new installations are required Since these developments may only be feasible with cheap labour in developing countries there would be massive infrastructure costs e.g. roads, ports, sea going ships etc

Slide83: 

In 1970s in the USA a 5% imbalance between supply and demand created a shortfall in petrol At that time high price was less of a worry than availability Such a small % difference was enough to adversely effect the economy ,flow of goods and mobility of people

Slide84: 

The 1973 Arab oil embargo created a massive price rise and economic dislocation world wide. Explosion of oil price ushered in a decade of STAGFLATION in which inflation soared and economies stagnated. Result was double-digit unemployment, inflation bank interest rates Strategic significance of America’s oil shale resources US Department of Energy [Johnson, Crawford and Bunger 2004] 2004

Slide85: 

Strategic significance of America’s oil shale resources US Department of Energy [Johnson, Crawford and Bunger 2004] If Peak Oil occurs suddenly the US will likely experience all the negative effects seen in the 1970s The comfortable supply situation of the past decade gives an impression that the favourable trends can continue indefinitely. The danger is that we are lulled into a false sense of security

The top five decliners in 2003: 

The top five decliners in 2003

About to go into decline (Increasing Type 3 losses): 

About to go into decline (Increasing Type 3 losses) Denmark producing 0.4mn b/d goes in 2005 Malaysia producing 0.9mn b/d goes in 2005 China producing 3.4mn b/d goes in 2005/06 Mexico producing 3.8mn b/d goes in 2005/06 Brunei producing 0.2mn b/d goes in 2006/07 India producing 0.8mn b/d goes in 2006/07 Collectively 9.5mn b/d or 12.3% of production

Slide91: 

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004 Distribution of proved oil reserves 2003 OIL RESERVES ISSUE

U.S. TRANSPORTATION FLEETS: 

Fleet Size Median Cost to Replace Lifetime Half the Fleet (Years) (2003 $) Automobiles 130 million 17 $1.3 trillion Light Trucks, 80 million 16 $1 trillion SUVs,etc. Heavy Trucks, 7 million 28 $1.5 trillion Buses, etc. Aircraft 8,500 22 $.25 trillion SAIC / MISI U.S. TRANSPORTATION FLEETS

Slide93: 

Europe and Australia by night – same scale, same brightness

Slide94: 

How about the real world? The Crude Oil case: Limited amount of resource Global Exploitation No suitable replacement Regional cases, e.g US-48 may not be relevant

Slide96: 

Australia “A wide brown land” “The Tyranny of Distance” Annual rainfall 3200 1600 mm 800 400 Perth to Sydney 3300 km Big Mostly arid Mostly low fertility soils 20 M people Already exceeding sustainable population

Slide97: 

Remoteness classification Major cities Inner regional Outer regional Remote Very remote Very remote Major cities Outer regional Remote Inner regional 3 separate countries Remote Regional Urban 3% 31% 66%

The More Rural The Population The Lower The Energy Requirements: 

The More Rural The Population The Lower The Energy Requirements

The fossil fuel used in producing a hectare of corn [approx 7200kg/ha]: 

The fossil fuel used in producing a hectare of corn [approx 7200kg/ha] Patzec 2004

Future world fuel availability : 

Future world fuel availability Oil extraction from wells will be physically unable to meet global demand (the evidence is from the oil industry itself). Alternative energy sources e.g. nuclear and natural gas will fall far short of compensating for expected shortages of oil. There is simply not enough time to convert over to them. Massive disruptions to transportation and the economy are expected commencing from about 2005-2010 onward as the global decline of petroleum begins.   Simmonds 2004

In Developed Countries, e.g. The US, Oil Is Used Largely As A Transportation Fuel: 

In Developed Countries, e.g. The US, Oil Is Used Largely As A Transportation Fuel

World Cereal Stocks [Estimated total carryover of cereals]: 

World Cereal Stocks [Estimated total carryover of cereals] FAO Rome

Slide103: 

"The Australian government released 2004 figures indicating that the countries remaining commercial reserves of crude and condensate total 1.491 billion bbl, less than half of its previous estimate. The government reported gas reserves of 29,000 bcf, one-third of its previous estimate." Fleay B [2004] http://stcwa.org.au/journa/150105/110612461517030.html The end of Australian oil maybe closer than we thought-and exporting Australian gas to buy overseas oil could well turn out to be an even shorter term strategy then expected CSIRO Sustainability News Letter 49 2005

A Planet and Its Inhabitants Under Stress 1: 

A Planet and Its Inhabitants Under Stress 1 Pollution and climate change with potential abrupt environmental warming Oil Production could peak [has peaked] and world supplies will start to decline with massive effects on human activity Water –by 2025, 60% of the world’s people are likely to be living with insufficient water

A Planet and Its Inhabitants Under Stress 2: 

A Planet and Its Inhabitants Under Stress 2 Food production is likely to be constrained by lowered oil and water availability[ about 1 billion people are presently malnourished] Loss of biodiversity with extinction of large numbers of organisms Continuing population increase mainly in the resource poor countries

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