Pandemics Activity 3 Strategy 2 AIDS Africa

HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan AfricaJuly 2002: 

HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa July 2002

Trends in the HIV/AIDS Epidemic : 

Trends in the HIV/AIDS Epidemic

HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 1986-2001: 

HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 1986-2001 20 – 39% 10 – 20% 5 – 10% 1 – 5% 0 – 1% trend data unavailable outside region 1986 1991 1996 2001

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Number of people living with HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa, 1980-2001 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 Millions Source: UNAIDS, 2002

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Number of people who died from HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa, 1980-2001 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 Thousands Source: UNAIDS, 2002

Percentage of workforce lost to AIDS by 2005 and 2020 in selected African countries: 

Percentage of workforce lost to AIDS by 2005 and 2020 in selected African countries 0 10 20 30 40 50 % 2005 2020 Botswana Cameroon Central African Republic Cote d’Ivoire Ethiopia Guinea-Bissau Mozambique Nigeria South Africa Togo United Rep. of Tanzania Zimbabwe Sources: ILO (2000) POPILO population and labour force projection; UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (1998) World Population Prospects: the 1998 Revision

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Projected population structure with and without the AIDS epidemic, Botswana, 2020 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Males Females Deficits due to AIDS Projected population structure in 2020 Population (thousands) Age in years Source: US Census Bureau, World Population Profile 2000

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Increase in mortality among men between 15 and 60, selected African countries, 1986-1997 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Tanzania 1996 Malawi 1992 Zimbabwe 1994 Uganda 1995 Zambia 1996-97 Probability of dying from all causes estimated for 6 years before survey estimated for year of survey Source: Timaeus I, AIDS 1998, 12 (suppl): S15-S27

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Estimated impact of AIDS on under-5 child mortality rates, selected African countries, 2010 Botswana Kenya Malawi Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe 0 50 100 150 200 250 Deaths per 1,000 live births Without AIDS With AIDS Source: US Census Bureau

Changes in life expectancy in selected African countries with high and low HIV prevalence: 1950 - 2005: 

Changes in life expectancy in selected African countries with high and low HIV prevalence: 1950 - 2005 with high HIV prevalence: Zimbabwe South Africa Botswana with low HIV prevalence: Madagascar Mali Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2001) World Population Prospects, the 2000 Revision. 1950– 1955 1955- 1960 1960- 1965 1965- 1970 1970- 1975 1975- 1980 1980- 1985 1985- 1990 1990- 1995 1995- 2000 2000- 2005

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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Cambodia Haiti Mozambique Rwanda Côte d'Ivoire Zambia Kenya South Africa Zimbabwe Botswana Life expectancy at birth (years) Predicted life expectancy Loss in life expectancy due to HIV/AIDS Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Predicted loss in life expectancy due to HIV/AIDS in children born in 2000

Leading causes of death in Africa, 2000: 

Leading causes of death in Africa, 2000 Source: The World Health Report 2001, WHO 22.6 10.1 9.1 6.7 5.5 4.3 3.6 3.1 2.9 2.3 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 HIV/AIDS Malaria Perinatal conditions Tuber culosis Cerebro vascular disease Diarrhoeal disease Lower respiratory infections Measles Ischaemic Heart disease Maternal conditions % of Total

Reduction in production in a household with an AIDS death, Zimbabwe: 

Reduction in production in a household with an AIDS death, Zimbabwe Source: Stover & Bollinger, 1999 • • • • • Crops Reduction in output

Estimated and projected deaths at ages 15-34, with and without AIDS in South Africa: 1980-2025: 

Estimated and projected deaths at ages 15-34, with and without AIDS in South Africa: 1980-2025 0 400 800 1,200 1,600 2,000 Deaths (Thousands) 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 Without AIDS With AIDS Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2001) World Population Prospects, the 2000 Revision.

Reduction in size of primary- school-age population by 2010, in selected African countries: 

Reduction in size of primary- school-age population by 2010, in selected African countries 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 Zimbabwe Zambia Kenya Uganda % reduction Source: World Bank, 2000

Reduction in life expectancy compared to the ‘no AIDS’ scenario in selected countries: 2000-2005: 

Reduction in life expectancy compared to the ‘no AIDS’ scenario in selected countries: 2000-2005 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Number of years Thailand Myanmar Angola Dominican Rep. Cambodia Bahamas Guyana Haiti Burkina Faso Cameroon Côte d'Ivoire Mozambique Kenya South Africa Swaziland Zimbabwe Botswana Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2001) World Population Prospects, the 2000 Revision.

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Percentage of 15-19 girls who do not know that a HIV-infected person may look healthy, 1994-1999 Sources: UNICEF, DHS surveys and other nationwide surveys, 1994-99. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Benin Dominican Republic Cameroon Chad Comoros Côte d'Ivoire Brazil Kenya Madagascar Malawi Mali Mozambique Haiti Niger Tanzania Uganda Zambia Zimbabwe Nepal Lesotho Bangladesh Cambodia Guatemala Papua New Guinea Mongolia South Africa Viet Nam Cape Verde Central African Republic Eritrea Romania Turkey Togo Peru Percentage who do not know

Public expenditure on health as percentage of general government expenditure in African countries: 1998: 

Public expenditure on health as percentage of general government expenditure in African countries: 1998 Source: WHO, World Health Report 2001 Sao Tome and Principe* Burundi Morocco Cape Verde Congo Togo Egypt Sudan Eritrea Somalia Nigeria Botswana Niger* Cameroon* Cote d'Ivoire Benin* Gabon Tunisia Madagascar* Kenya* Seychelles Swaziland Mali* Ghana* Uganda* Comoros Ethiopia* Rwanda* Mauritania* Burkina Faso Lesotho Mozambique* Gambia Namibia Chad* Zambia* Guinea* Senegal* DR Congo* Malawi* UR Tanzania Zimbabwe Libyan Arab Jamahiriya Djibouti Angola Mauritius Sierra Leone* Liberia Equatorial Guinea South Africa Algeria * Heavily indebted, poor countries % Expenditure on health Guinea-Bissau* Central African Republic* 0.0 3.0 6.0 9.0 12.0 15.0 18.0 Abuja Target = 15.0%