2006 12 06 Angolan Poll

Republic of Angola National Opinion PollJune 29 to September 6, 2006 International Republican InstituteConsulform, LdaAmerican Viewpoint, Inc.: 

Republic of Angola National Opinion Poll June 29 to September 6, 2006 International Republican Institute Consulform, Lda American Viewpoint, Inc.

INFORMATION ABOUT THE SURVEY: 

INFORMATION ABOUT THE SURVEY This opinion survey was conducted from June 29 to September 6, 2006 in 12 of the 18 Angolan provinces, which comprise 70.7percent of the Angolan population. 3,678 Angolan citizens aged 18 and above were interviewed face-to-face on a household basis. The margin of error does not exceed +/- 1.7 percent. The survey was carried out on behalf of the International Republican Institute (IRI). The study was designed, coordinated and analyzed by American Viewpoint, Ltd and Consulform in consultation with IRI’s Luanda and Washington, D.C. offices. All fieldwork was carried out by Consulform.

Respondents’ Demographic Information: 

Respondents’ Demographic Information Number of respondents: 3, 678 Sex Male 51% Female 49% Age Group 18-29 50% 30-39 25% 40-49 15% 50+ 11% Education Level Illiterate 8% 1st – 4th Grade 14% 5th – 6th Grade 24% 7th – 8th Grade 33% High School 19% University 1% Province Benguela 7% Bie 10% Cabinda 7% Cunene 7% Huambo 8% Huila 7% Kuanza Sul 10% Luanda 19% Lunda Sul 7% Malange 6% Moxico 7% Uige 7% Type of Residence Urban 25.3% Semi-urban 57.9% Rural 16.8%

Respondents’ Demographic Information: 

Respondents’ Demographic Information Self-Assessment of Income Level Very Poor 6% Poor 30% Comfortable 30% Upper Middle Class 35% Rich 0% Occupation Employed/Private Sector 7% Farmer 8% Informal income earner 6% Maid 3% Military/Police 4% Business Owner 5% Public/Government Worker 25% Student 14% Unemployed 7% Self-employed 21% Do you have a National Identification Card? Yes 66% No 22% Obtaining 12% Native Language Umbundo 28% Portuguese 20% Kimbundo 18% Cokwe 12% Kikongo 9% Other 9% Fiote 5% Nhaneca/Humbe 3% Kwanhama 2% Ganguela 1%

Slide5: 

Major problems faced by the country Four in ten respondents believe that unemployment is the major problem facing Angola, with 23 percent believing the major problem is poverty. No other response exceeds five percent.

Slide6: 

Economic situation since 2002 One in three respondents indicate their personal economic situation has improved since 2002 with just six percent believing their economic situation has worsened. Fifty-nine percent say their economic situation has remained the same. 59%

Slide7: 

Economic development since 2002 Seventy-three percent of these respondents believe the country’s economic development since 2002 is going well and will improve their life. Just nine percent indicate they don’t see any sign of improvement and 17 percent see signs of improvement but don’t expect their life to improve.

Slide8: 

Government’s role since 2002 Ninety-one percent of Angolans believe the government has done an excellent or good job of addressing the principal problems facing the country, with just five percent giving the government a failing grade. 91%

Slide9: 

Intent to vote in next elections Nearly eight in 10 Angolans indicate they intend to vote in the next elections, with just 12 percent saying they don’t plan to vote.

Slide10: 

Feeling about Immigration trends A majority believe the immigration trends the country is experiencing are bad, with just 24 percent believing they are good or very good. 54%

Slide11: 

How do you get the news? Television and the national radio and Radio Luanda are the two methods by which most Angolans receive their news, followed by friends and neighbors and the state newspaper.

Slide12: 

Interest in politics 43% 56% A majority of Angolans indicate they have not much or no interest at all in politics. Twenty-two percent indicate they have a great deal of interest and 21 percent indicate they have some interest.

Slide13: 

Political Status One-third of respondents indicate they are party members, with an additional 25 percent indicating they are sympathizers of a party.

Slide14: 

Liberty within political parties A bare majority believe Angolans are free to speak their minds within their political party, while 46 percent believe within political parties a person is not free to speak their mind.

Slide15: 

Organization membership Forty-seven percent belong to a religious organization, while less than 10 percent belong to an aid organization, sports club, syndicate, professional association or enterprise association. Thirty-seven percent indicate they don’t belong to any of these organizations or associations.

Slide16: 

Level of democracy in Angola 85% Eighty-five percent of Angolans believe that some level of democracy exists in their country including 15 percent who believe that total democracy exists. Just 14 percent believe that democracy does not exist in Angola.

Slide17: 

Opinion on next election Fifty-eight percent of these respondents believe that the next elections will be very important to them, with an additional 23 percent believing they could improve socio-economic conditions. Just three percent believe the next elections will lead to violence, four percent don’t trust the elections believing there will be fraud and six percent don’t believe the elections will change anything.

Slide18: 

Information on elections Fifty-seven percent of those who have received information about elections in the past have received the information from the media. Twenty percent have received information from family or friends and 12 percent have received information from their political party. Just six percent have not received any information.

Slide19: 

Campaign influence on intention to vote 54% A majority indicate that the campaigns waged by either candidates or parties will influence their intention to vote. Forty-six percent indicate the campaigns will not influence their intention to vote. 46%

Slide20: 

Next elections? With elections currently unspecified, two-thirds of Angolans believe the next elections should be for both the presidency and the legislature. Just 13 percent believe the next election should be legislative only and just 26 percent believe the next election should be presidential only.

Slide21: 

Level of trust of National Elections Commission 50% Fifty percent indicate they trust the National Elections Commission either a lot or some, with an additional 28 percent indicating they trust the commission a little. Just eight percent indicate no trust at all in the commission.

Slide22: 

Outlook on next elections An overwhelming 90 percent believe the next elections will be free and fair, though 40 percent of these respondents believe the elections will have some problems and 13 percent believe the elections will have major problems. However, just nine percent believe the elections will not be free and fair. 90%

Slide23: 

Issues to debate during electoral campaigns As we saw with the most important issue facing the country, unemployment and poverty rank one and two, with all other issues trailing.

Slide24: 

Requisites to choose a candidate A near majority indicate they prefer to vote for a politician who is in power over all others. Just 18 percent will vote for a candidate who defends their interests and just 11 percent will vote for a candidate who is known over a candidate who is unknown but has better ideas.

Slide25: 

Vote for female candidate? Angolans are evenly split on whether they would vote for a female candidate, with 51 percent indicating yes and 49 percent indicating no.

Slide26: 

Power to choose governor of a province Seventy-nine percent of Angolans want to choose the governor of their province, rather than have the governor appointed by the President or elected by the National Assembly.

Slide27: 

Resolve social/economic problems Seventy-five percent of Angolans believe that the police can resolve social or economic problems in their community, followed by the Municipal Administrator (57%), the Traditional Chief (48%) and the Church (42%). Just four percent believe the Parliament and just four percent believe political parties can resolve these types of problems.

Slide28: 

Resolve social/economic problems Two-thirds of Angolans believe social and economic problems will be resolved, but it will take a long time. Thirty-four percent believe these types of problems will be resolved quickly, while one percent believe these types of problems will never be resolved. 64%

Slide29: 

Most trusted institutions to resolve problems Sixty-six percent of Angolans trust the police to resolve problems of the population. Forty-nine percent trust the church. No other person or organization is trusted by more than thirty-five percent of the population to resolve problems.

Slide30: 

Least trusted institutions to resolve problems The Parliament and its Deputies are the institution that is the least trusted to resolve problems (41%), followed by political parties (31%).

Slide31: 

Reason for party support When asked why they will vote for the party they indicated, 57 percent indicate they trust the party the most, followed by 36 percent who believe the party has the best ideas. *Note: 79% of sample (2,906 respondents)

Slide32: 

Values of party A majority believe the party they intend to vote for brings peace, followed by 31 percent who indicate the party brings education. *Note: 79% of sample (2,906 respondents)

Slide33: 

Reasons for not voting 42 percent of these respondents* will not vote because no party convinced them to, followed by 22 percent who are afraid of what might happen after the election, 17 percent who don’t believe the elections will change anything and 13 percent who don’t believe the party has a concrete or good program. *Note: 12% of sample (440 respondents)