WG2 Berlin 231105 Kalinowska etal Diesels in europ

Dominika KalinowskaHartmut KuhfeldUwe Kunert(DIW Berlin, Germany)The diesel trend in Europe:does taxation matter ?Presentation at the COST Action 355 Meeting BerlinNovember 23 - 25 2005 : 

Dominika Kalinowska Hartmut Kuhfeld Uwe Kunert (DIW Berlin, Germany) The diesel trend in Europe: does taxation matter ? Presentation at the COST Action 355 Meeting Berlin November 23 - 25 2005

Outline : 

Outline - Tax systems and assessment basis in cross EU comparison – evidence for significant differences. - Comparing petrol and diesel passenger cars – do existing differences in tax charges have any detectable impact. - Focusing on France and Germany – what factors might influence observable preferences in aggregate passenger car purchase and ownership behaviour.

Share of diesel passenger cars in new registrations: 

Share of diesel passenger cars in new registrations

Fiscal duties charged on passenger cars – EU comparison: 

Fiscal duties charged on passenger cars – EU comparison

Total annualized duties charged – EU comparison for diesel car: 

Total annualized duties charged – EU comparison for diesel car

Total annualized duties charged – comparison for petrol vs. diesel car: 

Total annualized duties charged – comparison for petrol vs. diesel car

Annualized duties – comparison for petrol vs. diesel passenger car: 

Annualized duties – comparison for petrol vs. diesel passenger car

Annualized duties – comparison for petrol vs. diesel passenger car: 

Annualized duties – comparison for petrol vs. diesel passenger car

Share of diesel passenger cars in overall car fleet and new registrations : 

Share of diesel passenger cars in overall car fleet and new registrations

Focusing on France and Germany: 

Focusing on France and Germany Looking closer at France and Germany – background of the comparison: - country specific tendencies within newly registered passenger cars from the EU comparison - STSM of the COST 355 hosted by INRETS-DEST under the supervision of Laurent Hivert and supported by the rest of the DEST research team coordinated by Christophe Rizet - direct comparison of data sources and exchange of research results - concentration on analysis of research results based on micro data from relevant travel surveys (not part of today‘s presentation) - what stands out?

Share of diesel passenger cars in new registrations : 

Share of diesel passenger cars in new registrations

Similarities and differences – F and G : 

Similarities and differences – F and G Parallels and dissimilarities in the purchase and ownership of passenger cars – is there any evidence for comparability of behavioural patterns: - new registrations and fleets of passenger cars - observable trends from time series - analogue developments in the two neighbour countries

Share of diesel passenger cars in overall car fleets and new registrations – comparison France and Germany, 1990-2004 – : 

Share of diesel passenger cars in overall car fleets and new registrations – comparison France and Germany, 1990-2004 –

Passenger car fleets in France and Germany: 

Passenger car fleets in France and Germany Potential explanations for apparent purchasing trends of passenger cars: - significance of engine-type specific differences in fiscal duties charged on passenger cars - fuel price evolution of petrol vs. diesel – the fiscal component - additional aspects – efficiency effects and supply side reaction from the automobile industry

Total annualized duties – comparison for a diesel car in NL, G, F, CH: 

Total annualized duties – comparison for a diesel car in NL, G, F, CH

Fuel price evolution for petrol and diesel – France, 1980-2004: 

Fuel price evolution for petrol and diesel – France, 1980-2004

Fuel price evolution for petrol and diesel – Germany, 1980-2004: 

Fuel price evolution for petrol and diesel – Germany, 1980-2004

Fuel price differences between petrol and diesel : 

Fuel price differences between petrol and diesel

Fiscal duties charged on fuels – France and Germany 1980-2004 : 

Fiscal duties charged on fuels – France and Germany 1980-2004

Fuel price developements and new passenger car registrations– France, 1990-2004 – : 

Fuel price developements and new passenger car registrations – France, 1990-2004 –

Concluding remarks : 

Concluding remarks - for 14 of 17 countries studied clear positioning of diesel-share in relation to taxation can be observed - fuel duties contribute strongest to relative advantage of diesel cars - structure of the petroleum tax favours in many cases the diesel fuel and provides as a result for lower per-km cost - what potential consequences has the fiscal promotion of diesel fuel – the „rebound effect“ - producers‘ response to the „diesel-trend“ – the automobile industry has widened their product range - promotion of diesel cars for CO2 reduction targets

Concluding Remarks : 

Concluding Remarks - for more than a decade F has been dominating within the EU with its diesel car shares in new registrations as well as in the overall national passsenger car fleet evolution - the consistently existing relative fiscal cost advantage of diesel vehicles supported by their fuel efficiency allowed the French car users to shift their preferences towards this particular engine segment over a fairly long time period – supply side adjustments from the car manufacturers side followed contributing positively to the evolving diesel passenger car demand - since beginning of the 90s diesel cars have been evolving also in G into an economically attractive automobility alternative – rising shares of newly registered diesel cars clearly indicate this tendency - where does the development in G lead – can France‘s diesel-trend be seen as pathbreaking? and can advanced methodological analysis clear the picture?

Concluding Remarks : 

Concluding Remarks - for more than a decade F has been dominating within the EU with its diesel car shares in new registrations as well as in the overall national passsenger car fleet evolution - plausible explanations for the evident popularity of diesel passanger vehicles in F are the moderate annualized taxation charges on cars with diesel engine, in particular the long run favourable fiscality of diesel fuel in contrast to petrol - the consistently existing relative price advantage of diesel vehicles supported by their fuel efficiency allowed the French car users to shift their preferences towards this particular engine segment over a fairly long time period – supply side adjustments from the car manufacturers side followed contributing positively to the evolving diesel passenger car demand - since beginning of the 90s diesel cars evolved also in G into an economically attractive automobility alternative – rising shares of newly registered diesel cars clearly indicate this tendency for G - where does the development in G lead – can France‘s diesel-trend be seen as pathbreaking? and can advanced methodological analysis clear the picture?