JamesGoldstein

Bringing Global Thinking to Local Sustainability Efforts: Boston’s Energy Future: 

Bringing Global Thinking to Local Sustainability Efforts: Boston’s Energy Future James Goldstein jgold@tellus.org Tellus Institute Boston, MA Renewable Energy in 2020 – Vision of Harvard’s Future April 29, 2006

Caveats and Context: 

Caveats and Context Focus on Boston region; not just Harvard Longer-term horizon (at least to 2050) Two key projects using scenarios: Boston Scenarios Project Hydrogen Futures Project

Role of Scenarios & Visioning: 

Role of Scenarios & Visioning Scenarios = Future Images + Possible Pathways Stories, both qualitative and quantitative, about how the future could unfold Fire up imagination, inspire and motivate action Early warnings about imminent dangers based on current trends Generate knowledge to conceive and evaluate alternative pathways Provide social legitimacy for early action

Branch Points: 

Branch Points Branch Points Sources of Uncertainty Ignorance Surprise Volition

Slide5: 

Decision support system for sustainability studies, local to global Developed by Tellus in early 1990s Not a rigid model, but an open framework to build integrated scenarios plus a database Allows user to identify driving forces, address critical uncertainties and explore alternative futures

Slide6: 

The PoleStar System A Framework for Sustainability Assessment

Boston Scenarios Project: 

Boston Scenarios Project Long-term goal - support regional planning for sustainability by providing tools and methods that promote preventative planning in an integrated systems framework Short term goals include: Apply the integrated systems approach in the Boston context using PoleStar to examine alternative scenarios Support planning & inform policy-making at local, regional and state levels to achieve a sustainable future for the region consistent with global responsibility Promote networking of various planning efforts in the Boston region – from local to regional, state and federal

Boston Scenarios Project: 

Boston Scenarios Project Project Scope Review and coordinate with MetroFuture process Stakeholder consultation Data collection, review and synthesis Enhance PoleStar scenario building tool Develop scenarios: BAU, Policy Reform, Deep Change Identify policy and other implementation opportunities

Boston Scenarios Project: 

Boston Scenarios Project Collaborators Tellus Institute Metropolitan Area Planning Council (MAPC) The Boston Foundation Indicators Project MA State Sustainability Program Plus project Working Group of outside stakeholders

Develop Scenarios for Boston Region: 

Develop Scenarios for Boston Region Iterative process with collaborators and stakeholders: first order scenarios complete and under review Three scenarios being developed: Business-As-Usual (BAU): little change in production and consumption patterns; equity not addressed Policy Reform: technological and policy measures emphasized to moderate ecological destruction and social inequality Deep Change: changes in values lead to changes in lifestyles and institutions (along with technological innovations) to achieve sustainability with global responsibility

Deep Change Scenario: 

Deep Change Scenario By 2050, Boston has seen political engagement towards transformation of values and lifestyles: Growing awareness of global connectedness and responsibility Deep changes in lifestyles, behavior, and institutions have led to huge reductions in CO2 emissions and footprint Quality-of-life (clean environment, sense of community, social equity) replaces economic growth and material consumption as key driver

Deep Change Scenario - Energy: 

Deep Change Scenario - Energy Driven my 75% GHG reduction target Total energy use in 2050 = half of 2000 use Petroleum and natural gas use reduced greatly Renewables account for almost 50% of electricity; important roles in transport and industry Conservation and green building standard practice Heat pumps in district and building cogen systems Mode shift to transit and walking/biking

Deep ChangeTransportation & Land Use: 

Deep Change Transportation & Land Use GHG emissions from transportation reduced by 70% Emphasis on efficiency and shift to hydrogen New regional governing body coordinates land-use decision-making; promotes density, transit, and healthy lifestyles and mixed use Private car use reduced significantly; transit and alternative modes dominate Major roadways redesigned to accommodate alternative modes Congestion and commuting time markedly reduced Parts of downtown Boston closed to private vehicles; served by free transit and other modes

Boston’s Energy Future: Deep Change: 

Boston’s Energy Future: Deep Change

Boston’s Energy Future: Deep Change: 

Boston’s Energy Future: Deep Change

Implementation Opportunities: 

Implementation Opportunities MetroFuture process MA State Sustainability Program MPO Regional Transportation Plan MA Climate Action Plan Boston Indicators Project Other NGO initiatives