Anticipation of Labour Market Heli Saijets pp t

Anticipation of Labour Market - Intergovernmental network in Finland: 

Anticipation of Labour Market - Intergovernmental network in Finland Heli Saijets, Ministry of Labour, Seminar on labour market analysis in Tallinn, 9 December 2004

’Europe needs to increase the adaptability of workers and enterprises. Member states, social partners, enterprises and workers must increase their capacity to anticipate, trigger and absorb change, whether cyclical or structural, if more jobs are to be created and filled.’ (Report of the Employment Taskforce chaired by Wim Kok): 

’Europe needs to increase the adaptability of workers and enterprises. Member states, social partners, enterprises and workers must increase their capacity to anticipate, trigger and absorb change, whether cyclical or structural, if more jobs are to be created and filled.’ (Report of the Employment Taskforce chaired by Wim Kok)

Slide3: 

Framework of the foresight/forecasting network of Ministries Sustainable development Cultural Social Economic Ecological YM, LVM Prime Minister’s office: Outlooks to the Future,2004: Population development Technology/ Committee of the Future, Parliament Welfare - health and capabilities - social expenditure Min of Social and Health Technology and industrial structure, Energy Min of Trade and Industry Security/Safety Min of Justice, Interior, Socialandamp;Health Labour market, education and training Min of Labour Min of Education Labour Force 2025 Supply of education 2012 Min:LABO,INT,FIN,EDU,TRANS,TRADandamp;IND,SOCandamp;HE,AGRI Regional Development Min of Interior, Agriculture and Forestry Countryside, Food production Min of Agriculture and Forestry Governmental Finances/ Budget process Min Finance + other Min annual budget, future frame Environment housing, climate, transport Min of Transp, Env, Tradeandamp;Ind

The Government’s report on the Future to the Parliament: Finland’ population policy and preparations for changes in the age structure:: 

The Government’s report on the Future to the Parliament: Finland’ population policy and preparations for changes in the age structure: safeguard birth rate and increase immigration promote persons’ functional ability and health investment in children’s growth condition increase both employment rate and productivity growth need to reform social security and the delivery of welfare services utilise the resources of ageing population

Finland in the Global Economy –project, launched by the Prime Minister in January 2004: 

Finland in the Global Economy –project, launched by the Prime Minister in January 2004 Sector-specific dialogue with employers’ and employees’ organisations on industrial and employment policy investments in improving competence and in the functioning of the innovation system reinforce top expertise esp. of the service sector improve capacity for using technology and creativity more open society: Finnish companies to become more international and attract foreign capital and experts

Changes at the Labour Market(globalisation, technological dev.): 

Changes at the Labour Market (globalisation, technological dev.) 50 000 jobs (10 %) will be lost in industry 2001 – 2005 growth in service sector; outsourcing export to Asia ,Russia, Baltic States increased 10 % annually since the beginning on 1990’s (esp. Russia, Estonian and China) ’…there is nothing Finland can do about being a small peripheral country’

Changes in the working life: 

Changes in the working life production and corporate structures are changing into more technologically advanced and knowledge intensive forms working hours becoming more flexible and diversified in all sectors fixed-term employment and temporary, hired workforce becoming more widespread local agreement, communication systems, telework, economic pressure, all influence the change

Anticipation at the Labour Market and Methods for Labour Market projections in Finland: 

Anticipation at the Labour Market and Methods for Labour Market projections in Finland Long Term Labour Force Model Data Collection of Employers’ interviews Anticipation at the regional level by Employment and Economic Development Centres

Labour Force 2025 –project, the Long Term Labour Force Model : 

Labour Force 2025 –project, the Long Term Labour Force Model The supply side: population by five year age groups and sex, activity rates, persons not in the labour force (persons in retirement, persons in education, household domestic worker), working time taken into account. The demand side: using national accounts statistics and includes productivity by industry, production at fixed prices, the hours worked and the employed, all by industry. (Adjustment is needed between employment figures drawn from the national account statistics and Labour Force Survey.)

Some remarks on Labour Force-project: 

Some remarks on Labour Force-project calculations produced by the intergovernmental working group, incl. sectoral expertise the branch-specific projections of production, productivity, employment adopted and used as a basis for other calculations: basis for calculations on occupational structure, educational needs and social expenditure (by Ministry of Education, Ministry of Social Affairs and Health), figures are adjusted for use at the regional level (by Ministry of Interior)

Data Collection of Employers’ interviews : 

Data Collection of Employers’ interviews Information on recruitment from employers collected separately for each quarter. About 2,500 workplaces are interviewed each quarter: recruitment during the prec.3 and 12 months recruitment problems, labour shortages recruitment channels, use of public employment services background of the new employees recruited recruitment plans over the next three months by occupation

Anticipation linked to the labour market at the regional level : 

Anticipation linked to the labour market at the regional level Anticipation carried out by the regional Employment and Economic Development Centres (15) Long-term forecasting for the needs of education: Ministry of Education and the Board of Educational Planning. Regional anticipation linked to regional strategies by the Regional Councils (19)

Anticipation of labour market in Employment and Economic Development Centres: 

Anticipation of labour market in Employment and Economic Development Centres Planning: strategy and management by results Decision making: business operation andamp; funding, training, investment support Services: business advice, job search etc. Short term, 6 months: job search, training, economic fluctuation 1-3 years: strategic planning Long term forecasts needed for labour market scenarios