6 drymv 1b syuokte

Slide1: 

IISD Side Event, COP-11/MOP-1, Montreal, 03 December, 2005 Post-2012 Climate Change Regime Building on the Kyoto vision: Perspectives from Russia KOKORIN Alexey World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) Moscow, Nikoloyamskaya st. 19. build. 3 akokorin@wwf.ru +7 (095) 727-0939 www.wwf.ru

Slide2: 

Main points to be discussed Russian post-2012 position is under development Russian 'pluses' and Kyoto 'luggage' have to be used in post-2012 Estimation of Russian possibilities to meet post-2012 targets Additional important factors to be accounted for post-2012 Russian perspective

Slide3: 

Russian post-2012 position is under development Russian Action Plan on Kyoto Implementation includes considerations post-2012 approaches Key agencies are: UNFCCC Focal Point – Roshydromet, Min. Foreign Affairs, Min. of Economy and Trade,…. Ecological (climate threat) factors work too weak Economic factors are the main now, while political factors can be the main when position is under finalizing Economic factors are not clear enough to be arranged in a solid position

Slide4: 

2. Russian 'pluses' and Kyoto 'luggage' have to be used in post-2012 Full scale use of AAUs from Kyoto (incl. free AAUs 'generated' by accounting KP 3.4 RMUs in Kyoto period). Use of the same international mechanisms and national legal basis. Strong commitments of all 'Annex 1+' Parties, where Russia could play 'pluses' after 2012: Possibility to reduce GHG emissions by relatively low cost (energy efficiency and saving, methane leakages… ) Possibility to reduce GHG per GDP emissions significantly and by low cost Relatively low CO2 emission in power/heat generation (due to andgt;50% of gas and andgt;70% of CHP). Global trade in energy based on best values of gCO2 per kW. Possibilities to increase absolute numbers and/or share of renewable energy in 2-3-10 times (in percent of 1990 level)

Slide5: 

3. Estimation of Russian possibilities to meet post-2012 targets Russia can keep GHG emission by –15% (of 1990) in 2012-2020 Russia can reduce GHG per GDP by 4% per year 'Full accounting' of biological sinks/emitters is a slippery deal for Russia (melting of permafrost, forest fires, relatively low carbon sequestration… )

Slide6: 

Energy consumption and CO2 emission Source: Institute of Energy Research of Russian Academy of Science, 2004

Slide7: 

GDP Growth and GHG emissions in Russia

Slide8: 

Dependence of GHG emission on GDP Growth in Russia Source: Russian Government, Press release #580, April 2002; CENEf, 2003; Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, 2004. GDP - main factors Oil/gas export, growth in oil prices (minor GHG growth) Service, food, light industry (andlt;10% of GHG emission, small influence on total GHG emission) GHG - main factors Power generation as a total (~15% growth of total fuel use by 2010) Energy/heat for municipalities, Transport infrastructure stable energy demand: population is stable, infrastructure being replaced, (old household goods by new) Heavy industry: iron, steel, aluminium. (depends on global markets only and can not growth significantly in long time)

Slide9: 

4. Additional factors to be accounted for post-2012 Russian perspective How post-2012 influences on Russian oil/gas export to Europe and worldwide (some estimates) ? How post-2012 influences on Russian electricity export to China and other countries (to be estimated) ? How positive is influence of Kyoto and post-2012 on FDI in Russia (some estimates of direct and non-direct effects) ? What are additional political, economic and social benefits of post-2012 for Russia ?

Slide10: 

How post-2012 influences on Russian oil/gas export to Europe and worldwide ? Low carbon content of gas gives the potential for increased demand for gas and increase in gas revenues. Potential decrease in oil revenues in Kyoto period may be estimated maximum as 0.7-0.2 US$ bln. per year (if EU has not external emission trading) and only andlt; 0.1US$ bln. per year if EU has external emission trading. The oil revenue impact of post-2012 is small compared with the volatility inherent in the markets. The IEA estimate’s that the geopolitical risk premium alone inherent in the oil price reached $10 per barrel in mid-2004. Energy intensive export from Russia will be higher than without strong GHG reduction commitments (mainly metals and pulp and paper)

Slide11: 

How positive is influence of Kyoto and post-2012 on FDI in Russia (direct and non-direct effects) Private investors will not only enhance their established links with Russian hosts, but as they develop the infrastructure within their companies to undertake projects, they are likely to find further opportunities. ·    The reforms and changes to the legal framework necessary to accommodate substantial JI investment could improve the general investment climate. JI investment for the first commitment period could be in the range US$1–5 billion in total, with an additional US$1–5 billion of non-JI FDI. This investment would have a value of US$0.1–1.4 billion for each year in the first commitment period.

Slide12: 

Two ways of post-2012 position development 'Sleeping' bureaucracy: weak commitments with minimum activities above 'business as usual'. Russia can easily meet commitments but there will be no benefits except the fact of compliance. 'Progressive business and ecology': commitments of Russia and other 'Annex 1+' are strong enough for effective trading ('cup-and-trade' with potential expansion for many countries in energy sector). Good incentives for technological growth, what is very important for 'after-oil era' of Russian economy. Best companies are winners, ecologists and general public are winners.

Slide13: 

Thank you! akokorin@wwf.ru