CSP GasbyPipeline fromRussiatoEurope 05 26 04

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Session A:Politics and Economics of Gas Export ProjectsRussian Gas:Across Belarus to Poland & Germany: 

Session A: Politics and Economics of Gas Export Projects Russian Gas: Across Belarus to Poland andamp; Germany David G. Victor and Nadejda M. Victor Stanford University (http://pesd.stanford.edu/gas) Project Conference Houston 26 May 2004

The Belarus Connector: 

The Belarus Connector

The Key Players and Their Interests: 

The Key Players and Their Interests Russia and Gazprom Boost export volumes Direct access to German Market Bypass Ruhrgas; gain higher margins Internal turmoil in early 1990s Belarus Poland Germany No 'German' interest Wintershall (BASF): break the German gas monopoly How well did they do?

Soviet and Russian Gas Exports: 

Soviet and Russian Gas Exports

Gazprom and the German Market: 

Gazprom and the German Market Minimal Impact on margins Volumes higher, but along baseline Accelerated gas-on-gas competition and opening of German gas market All told, a disaster for Gazprom? Story still unfolding Gazprom’s downstream holdings

German Market and Wintershall: 

German Market and Wintershall Eroded Ruhrgas margins Wintershall has ~15% share today, up from ~zero in 1990 German (large) consumer a winner

Transit countries: 

Transit countries Poland The problem of demand Belarus and Ukraine Reversal of roles

Slide8: 

Poland: Gas Struggles for Share

Contrast: Soviet State Orders Gas: 

biomass coal oil gas Contrast: Soviet State Orders Gas

Direct Exports and Bypass: 

Direct Exports and Bypass

Implications for Geopolitics: 

Implications for Geopolitics Primary of Geoeconomics Estimation of deman Poland; Turkey Transit Country Problem Ephemeral and overstated? Contestability of routes and markets Security of Supply: Russia the reliable supplier?

Slide12: 


Backup Slides follow: 

Backup Slides follow

Slide14: