VISTAS Base F4 Modeling Update Jan18 2006v2

VISTAS Modeling UpdateJanuary 18, 2006 TAWG Conference Call: 

VISTAS Modeling Update January 18, 2006 TAWG Conference Call ENVIRON International Corporation Alpine Geophysics, LLC University of California at Riverside http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/vistas/vistas2/index.shtml

Modeling Work Since Last Update: 

Modeling Work Since Last Update 2002ft4a Typical Base F4 36/12 km 12 km with everyday mobile (ASIP) 2009f4a Base F4 36/12 km (ASIP) Used for 8-hour ozone and PM2.5 Design Value Projections (Discuss Later) 2018f4a Base F4 36 km only 2018 Visibility Projections 2002ft4a 12 km no EGU and no non-EGU Point Source PM Emissions (Discuss Later) Can we exempt potential BART-eligible PM emissions from BART process?

2002 Base F4 versus 2002 Base D: 

2002 Base F4 versus 2002 Base D Updated Emissions MCIP3.0 Processed MM5 CMAQ v4.4 SOAmods versus CMAQ v4.5 SOAmods Corrected Mass Conservation Algorithm Higher Dry Deposition Other Updates Migration to CMAQ v4.5 discussed previously

Slide4: 

Base F4 Updates from Base D Updated base year 2002 emissions from other RPOs Updated 2018 projections from CENRAP Updated growth and control for 2009/2018 (MRPO andamp; CENRAP) Updated projection calculations (non-CENRAP) Update IPM runs Removal of non-EGU/EGU double counting MRPO, CENRAP, andamp; MANE-VU Removal of wildfire/human NH3 from selected states Removal of double counted NH3 from selected MRPO states Revision to Pennsylvania EGU temporal profiles Update Canadian wildfires Updated PMC speciation profiles so not double counted Miscellaneous modifications as requested by VISTAS states Correct double counting of GA EGU emissions

SO4 and OC July 2002 VISTAS IMPROVE 2002 36 km Base F4 vs. Base D: 

SO4 and OC July 2002 VISTAS IMPROVE 2002 36 km Base F4 vs. Base D

SO4 and NO3 January 2002 VISTAS IMPROVE 2002 36 km Base F4 vs. Base D: 

SO4 and NO3 January 2002 VISTAS IMPROVE 2002 36 km Base F4 vs. Base D

2018 Visibility Projections: 

2018 Visibility Projections 2002ft4a and 2018f4a 36 km Base F4 CMAQ Modeling Results Initial Projections using Method 1 RRFs based on average of Observed 2002 Worst 20% Days (current draft guidance) 2000-2003 Interim Baseline + Current IMPROVE Equation Compare back to 2018 Base D Vis Projections 2000-2004 Official Baseline Current and Proposed New IMPROVE Equation Move on to Other Methods? Filled Data for Some Sites (Joe Adlhoch)

Current IMPROVE Equation: 

Current IMPROVE Equation bSulfate = 3 x f(RH) x [SO4] bNitrate = 3 x f(RH) x [NO3] bEC = 10 x [EC] bOM = 4 x [OM] bSoil = 1 x [Soil] bCM = 0.6 x [CM] Total daily extinction (bext) is sum plus Rayleigh: bext = bRay + bSulfate + bNitrate + bEC +bOM + bSoil + bCM Haze Index = HI = 10 ln(bext/10)

Proposed New IMPROVE Equ: 

Proposed New IMPROVE Equ bSO4 = 2.2 x fS(RH) x [Small-SO4] + 4.8 x fL(RH) x [Large-SO4] bNO3 = 2.4 x fS(RH) x [Small-NO3] + 5.1 x fL(RH) x [Large-NO3] bEC = 10 x [EC] bOM = 2.8 x [Small-OC] + 6.1 x [Large-OC] bSoil = 1 x [Soil] bSS = 1.7 fSS(RH) x [Sea Salt] bCM = 0.6 x [CM] bRay = (Site Specific) bNO2 = 0.33 [NO2] Large-SO4 = ([SO4]/20) x [SO4], for [SO4] andlt; 20 μg/m3 Large-SO4 = [SO4], for [SO4] andgt; 20 μg/m3 Small-SO4 = [SO4] – [Large-SO4]; (Similar for NO3 and OC) Sea Salt = 1.8 x [Cl-] Three new f(RH) curves: fS(RH), fL(RH) and fSS(RH)

Caveats of Proposed New IMPROVE Equation Visibility Projections: 

Caveats of Proposed New IMPROVE Equation Visibility Projections Three new f(RH) functions not available for all Class I areas Used Approximate Look-Up Table from old to new f(RH) curves (thanks to Joe Adlhoch, ARS) For Sea Salt used Class I area average values based on 1.8 x Cl- used previously BRET had no Cl so used SAMA values No NO2 measurements available in VIEWS RHR Database so set NO2=0.0 Constant Rayleigh Scattering (10 Mm-1) Not Site-Specific Yet No valid 2002 W20% days at MING so skipped Will separately calculate W20% Days for RRFs

Use of Filled Data for Some Sites: 

Use of Filled Data for Some Sites Some IMPROVE sites have insufficient data to satisfy EPA’s RHR data completeness criteria for a year (00-04) Latest UC Davis IMPROVE submissions exacerbated this problem Filled Data for 5 VISTAS Class I Areas Start with VIEWS November RHR Dataset If RHR data for a year satisfy RHR completeness, stop If year incomplete, first substitute OC based on non-sulfate H and then EC from OC, if complete, stop If year still incomplete, fill from nearby site Did not sub for 2000 start up year as little data

Slide12: 

Use Filled Data for Some Sites with Incomplete Records

2018 Base F4 Vis Proj: 

2018 Base F4 Vis Proj 2018 OTWd w/ 2000-2003 Baseline Base F4 with 2000-2003 Baseline Base F4 with 2000-2004 Baseline Base F4 with 2000-2004 Baseline and Proposed New IMPROVE 'Dot Plots' Expressed as Percentage of Meeting 2018 Reasonable Progress Goal (RPG) Defined by Linear Glide Path from 2000-2004 Baseline to 2064 EPA Default Natural Conditions – Method 1

Slide14: 

2018 Visibility Projections Base D and Base F4

Visibility Projections Base F4 : 

Visibility Projections Base F4 Base F visibility projections consistent with Base D and generally more likely to meet RPG Exceptions at CHAS, DOSO, … Use of 2000-2004 Baseline affects some sites, especially without full 5-years of data Biggest difference at sites with data filling Proposed New IMPROVE equation has little effect at most sites Larger effects at coastal sites Recall Caveats with New IMPROVE application (estimated f(RH) curves, no site-specific bRay, average Sea Salt, no NO2)

Slide16: 

OTWd=Base D; Base f4A; Base fB = Base F2 Recall Problems with 2018 Base F2/fB Visibility Projections

2018 Base F4 Visibility Projections: 

2018 Base F4 Visibility Projections Base F4 vis projections more consistent with Base D than Base F2/fB Degradation with Base F2 gone away Odd results seen at some sites (e.g., BRIG fire increase) gone away Still some oddities to look into: EVER 'large' EC/OC decreases on all days CACR large EC/OC increase on Jday 80 HEGL 4th quarter increase in SO4

Slide18: 

Everglades (EVER) EC and OC Decreases

Slide19: 

Caney Creek, EC/OC Increase on Julian Day 80

Slide20: 

Hercules Glade SO4 Increases in Q4

Slide21: 

. . . . . Hercules Glade, MO . . . . . Summary of 2018 Base F4 Uniform Rate of Progress Assessment Current and Proposed New IMPROVE Equations and 2000-20004 Baseline

Next Steps (January 2006): 

Next Steps (January 2006) 2018 Base F4 Visibility Projections Additional Methods MING 2002 Worst 20% Days for Projections UC Davis did some data filling that is under review No EGU and Non-EGU PM Emissions Does total EGU/non-EGU point source PM emissions in 12 km grid exceed 0.5 dv threshold? 2009/2002 36/12 km Base F4 ASIP Runs 8-Hour ozone Projections Using final EPA 8-hour ozone guidance PM2.5 Projections Using FRM/STN paired data and 2000-2004 baseline data from North Carolina Using CAIR SMAT Tool based on 1999-2003 baseline