logging in or signing up IPPR 5Dec06 Presentation1 Baverly_gal Download Post to : URL : Related Presentations : Share Add to Flag Embed Email Send to Blogs and Networks Add to Channel Uploaded from authorPOINTLite Insert YouTube videos in PowerPont slides with aS Desktop Copy embed code: (To copy code, click on the text box) Embed: URL: Thumbnail: WordPress Embed Customize Embed The presentation is successfully added In Your Favorites. Views: 24 Category: Entertainment License: All Rights Reserved Like it (0) Dislike it (0) Added: October 10, 2007 This Presentation is Public Favorites: 0 Presentation Description No description available. Comments Posting comment... By: irfanalimirani (7 month(s) ago) LIKE IT Saving..... Post Reply Close Saving..... Edit Comment Close By: tahirndu (13 month(s) ago) this is very informative but china need time to call as a next super power Saving..... Post Reply Close Saving..... Edit Comment Close Premium member Presentation Transcript Slide1: Economics and Business Exchange Supported by Deloitte. Slide2: Can China Really Become the Next Superpower? Professor Shujie Yao China Policy Institute Leverhulme Centre of Globalisation & Economic Policy University of Nottingham Nottingham NG7 2RD E-mail: Shujie.yao@nottinghamSlide3: What constitutes a superpower China’s emergence: An awakened dragon China may fail？Constraints & challenges Hu-Wen Policies Possible scenarios of evolutionSlide4: What constitutes a superpower Absolute size Per capita income and entitlement Justice and fairness Science, technology and human capital Military strength and foreign diplomacy Democracy, freedom, controlled corruptionSlide5: 3. China’s emergence: an awakened dragon 3.1 What has China achieved in 30 years of reforms? Fast growth for a prolonged period (Table 1) Enormous improvement of people’s living standards World’s largest producer/consumer of key A&I products World’s third largest trading nation World’s largest/second largest recipient of FDI (Fig 1) Growth engine of the world economy Significant political influence after the cold warSlide6: Table 1 Key indicators of world powers, 1981-2004 Slide7: Figure 1 FDI inflows into China 1979-2004Slide8: 3.2 Why China succeeds? Institutional reform White-Black Cat Theory: changing plan to market Touching Stones to Cross Rivers Theory: gradualism, experiment, timing, scale Development strategies Export-push vis-à-vis import substitution Globalization vis-à-vis close-doorSlide9: Development theories From SPOT to AREA (yi dian dai mian, 以点带面) Figure 2 Economic growth and linkage to a growth centre Growth centre A B DA < Dmin DB > DminSlide10: Foreign technologies to serve China (yang wei zhong young, 洋为中用) Walking with Two Legs for S&T (liang tiao tui zou lu，两条腿走路) Figure 2 Technological progress and FDISlide11: 4. China may fail? Constraints and challenges High growth but low quality Unfairness, injustice, inequality, corruption Insecurity of citizens: social unrest health, education and social security Stickiness of poverty Politics and democracySlide12: 5. Hu-Wen new strategies Reducing inequality Improving growth quality Fighting corruption Fighting poverty Protecting environment Building a harmonious societySlide13: 6. Possible scenarios of evolution 6.1 Most pessimistic scenario Hu-Wen policies do not work Slow growth – high unemployment Corruption unchecked – social unrest Banking reform fails – financial crisis Unstable, highly polarised, stagnant society Slide14: 6.2 Medium scenario Hu-Wen policies work reasonably well High growth – low quality Rising inequality Corruption partially controlled People unhappy, but the country is stable Similar to the present situationSlide15: 6.3 Most optimistic scenario Hu-Wen policies work extremely well High growth – high quality Reduction of inequality Reduction of poverty Fuller employment Sustainable growth with high security China becomes a real superpower in 30 years Slide16: Economics and Business Exchange Supported by Deloitte. You do not have the permission to view this presentation. In order to view it, please contact the author of the presentation.
IPPR 5Dec06 Presentation1 Baverly_gal Download Post to : URL : Related Presentations : Share Add to Flag Embed Email Send to Blogs and Networks Add to Channel Uploaded from authorPOINTLite Insert YouTube videos in PowerPont slides with aS Desktop Copy embed code: (To copy code, click on the text box) Embed: URL: Thumbnail: WordPress Embed Customize Embed The presentation is successfully added In Your Favorites. Views: 24 Category: Entertainment License: All Rights Reserved Like it (0) Dislike it (0) Added: October 10, 2007 This Presentation is Public Favorites: 0 Presentation Description No description available. Comments Posting comment... By: irfanalimirani (7 month(s) ago) LIKE IT Saving..... Post Reply Close Saving..... Edit Comment Close By: tahirndu (13 month(s) ago) this is very informative but china need time to call as a next super power Saving..... Post Reply Close Saving..... Edit Comment Close Premium member Presentation Transcript Slide1: Economics and Business Exchange Supported by Deloitte. Slide2: Can China Really Become the Next Superpower? Professor Shujie Yao China Policy Institute Leverhulme Centre of Globalisation & Economic Policy University of Nottingham Nottingham NG7 2RD E-mail: Shujie.yao@nottinghamSlide3: What constitutes a superpower China’s emergence: An awakened dragon China may fail？Constraints & challenges Hu-Wen Policies Possible scenarios of evolutionSlide4: What constitutes a superpower Absolute size Per capita income and entitlement Justice and fairness Science, technology and human capital Military strength and foreign diplomacy Democracy, freedom, controlled corruptionSlide5: 3. China’s emergence: an awakened dragon 3.1 What has China achieved in 30 years of reforms? Fast growth for a prolonged period (Table 1) Enormous improvement of people’s living standards World’s largest producer/consumer of key A&I products World’s third largest trading nation World’s largest/second largest recipient of FDI (Fig 1) Growth engine of the world economy Significant political influence after the cold warSlide6: Table 1 Key indicators of world powers, 1981-2004 Slide7: Figure 1 FDI inflows into China 1979-2004Slide8: 3.2 Why China succeeds? Institutional reform White-Black Cat Theory: changing plan to market Touching Stones to Cross Rivers Theory: gradualism, experiment, timing, scale Development strategies Export-push vis-à-vis import substitution Globalization vis-à-vis close-doorSlide9: Development theories From SPOT to AREA (yi dian dai mian, 以点带面) Figure 2 Economic growth and linkage to a growth centre Growth centre A B DA < Dmin DB > DminSlide10: Foreign technologies to serve China (yang wei zhong young, 洋为中用) Walking with Two Legs for S&T (liang tiao tui zou lu，两条腿走路) Figure 2 Technological progress and FDISlide11: 4. China may fail? Constraints and challenges High growth but low quality Unfairness, injustice, inequality, corruption Insecurity of citizens: social unrest health, education and social security Stickiness of poverty Politics and democracySlide12: 5. Hu-Wen new strategies Reducing inequality Improving growth quality Fighting corruption Fighting poverty Protecting environment Building a harmonious societySlide13: 6. Possible scenarios of evolution 6.1 Most pessimistic scenario Hu-Wen policies do not work Slow growth – high unemployment Corruption unchecked – social unrest Banking reform fails – financial crisis Unstable, highly polarised, stagnant society Slide14: 6.2 Medium scenario Hu-Wen policies work reasonably well High growth – low quality Rising inequality Corruption partially controlled People unhappy, but the country is stable Similar to the present situationSlide15: 6.3 Most optimistic scenario Hu-Wen policies work extremely well High growth – high quality Reduction of inequality Reduction of poverty Fuller employment Sustainable growth with high security China becomes a real superpower in 30 years Slide16: Economics and Business Exchange Supported by Deloitte.