Bruce Lambert Army Corps

The Great Wave – The Pending Freight Crisis : The Great Wave – The Pending Freight Crisis Bruce Lambert Institute of Water Resources US Army Corps of Engineers


Truck Freight Flows, All CommoditiesAll truck types; highway freight density in tons : Truck Freight Flows, All Commodities All truck types; highway freight density in tons


What are the components of a “Freight Crisis? : What are the components of a “Freight Crisis? Limited Growth in New Infrastructure? Increased expenditures on Maintenance? Satisfying User Expectations? This is not the First “Freight System” Crisis the U.S. has faced…


Limited Growth in New Infrastructure? : Limited Growth in New Infrastructure? Highway Capacity growing less then 1% a year since 1980 NHS Connectors Rail line system miles – Rail abandonment in 1980’s Some capacity added on mainline tracks Waterway network is fixed River system is geologically fixed Limited development of new locks and dams


Total Traffic Forecasts (domestic and international) by tons – 1998, 2010,2020 : Total Traffic Forecasts (domestic and international) by tons – 1998, 2010,2020


Truck‡ Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) - 1980 to 2020 : Truck‡ Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) - 1980 to 2020 ‡Trucks includes both single-unit vehicles with 2-axles and 6 or more tires and combination vehicles. *Forecast generated for FHWA, Office of Policy, by WEFA, Inc. Forecast


Estimated Volume/Capacity Ratios- 1998 : Estimated Volume/Capacity Ratios- 1998


Estimated Volume/Capacity Ratios- 2020 : Estimated Volume/Capacity Ratios- 2020


Maritime Infrastructure Conditions and Concerns : Maritime Infrastructure Conditions and Concerns 25,000 miles of waterway and harbor channels handle 2.4 billion tons of cargo vital to economy Half of locks exceed 50-year design life and lock maintenance downtime has doubled Maintenance backlog will increase to nearly $700 million under FY 2005 Budget Harbor improvements are needed to handle new larger vessels Lock Construction Projects underway to meet these needs have been delayed by 5-10 years due to funding shortfall


Constrained Containership Calls by Coastal Region with and without Planned Corps Projects: Year 2000 and 2020 : Constrained Containership Calls by Coastal Region with and without Planned Corps Projects: Year 2000 and 2020 Source: National Dredging Needs Study, USACE


Port Capital Expenditures by Type – Share of Total Capital Expenditures (Source – Marad Port Financial Survey - 2003) : Port Capital Expenditures by Type – Share of Total Capital Expenditures (Source – Marad Port Financial Survey - 2003)


Cumulative Economic Benefits Foregone from Lock Construction Delays : Cumulative Economic Benefits Foregone from Lock Construction Delays Source: Inland Waterways Users Board Annual Report to Congress, March 2004.


User Expectations - System Reliability? : User Expectations - System Reliability? Just in time services – paradox of being more robust and fragile regarding freight productivity Intermodal capacity and operability – not as smooth as promised Firms outsourcing the “Headaches” of logistics No one believes congestion will go away States often ignore primarily “freight” infrastructure


Some Recent Shocks to Freight Transportation : Some Recent Shocks to Freight Transportation Port Strikes (longshoremen, drivers) Labor – Manpower Lock Shutdowns Rail meltdowns Larger, heavier vessels and equipment Shifts in trade patterns (NAFTA, China, War on Terrorism) Fuel costs


Projected National Truck Flow Changes with Collapse of Bridge at Webbers Falls. : Projected National Truck Flow Changes with Collapse of Bridge at Webbers Falls. s


How Can One Look At Freight? : How Can One Look At Freight? Inventory Functions – physical characteristics, numbers of facilities, labor, equipment Engineering – structural integrity, deterioration Operational Reliability – delay, closures Economical and Financial – Cost/Benefit Analysis, capital and financial resources Traffic volumes and flows Safety and Security Sharing resources with non-freight users and goals


Who Can Really Speak for “Freight” – One Example : Who Can Really Speak for “Freight” – One Example Port Railroad RR1 Chicago Drayage RR2 Chicago Railroad Drayage Consignee Dest. City Port Authority Infrastructure Provider and manager- e.g.Traffic Mgmt. Infrastructure & Traffic Mgmt


What is the story needed to develop a national dialogue? : What is the story needed to develop a national dialogue? What Kind of Freight System do we want? Safe, reliable, low-cost, redundant, excess capacity, environmental friendly? The FAF told the relationship story, not the economic story. Local versus national needs? Public versus Private needs? The Greatest Distance in the World?


How much will an improved freight infrastructure system cost? : How much will an improved freight infrastructure system cost? ASCE 2005 (first issued in 1988) Freight Bottom Line Chamber of Commerce FHWA – Condition and Needs USACE – IWR – Dredging Needs Studies


No One Item Will Cure All Transportation Woes : No One Item Will Cure All Transportation Woes


Do we have a freight crisis? : Do we have a freight crisis? Short term – system on margin with increased sensitivity to shocks Long term – depends upon changing institutional paradigms, not infrastructure, as in previous crisis Everyone agrees we are the initial stages of the “crisis” – how will we respond?


Institute of Water ResourcesUS Army Corps of Engineers : Institute of Water Resources US Army Corps of Engineers http://www.iwr.usace.army.mil Bruce Lambert 703-428-6667 Bruce.Lambert@usace.army.mil