National R&D Strategy for Regional Stability / Nation Building : National R&D Strategy for Regional Stability / Nation Building Dr. Barbara Sotirin
202-761-1415
Barbara.j.Sotirin@us.army.mil Update for National Security R&D Sub-Committee 06 May 2004
Stability Operations/Nation building IWG: Stability Operations/Nation building IWG National Science and Technology Council; Subcommittee on National Security R&D commissioned Regional Security/Nation Building R&D Strategy Inter-agency Working Group
Initial meeting with IWG Chair 17 March
Initial meeting of the IWG on 2 April; Inter-agency group to be co-chaired by Donna Hopkins from Department of State
IWG to include representation from
DOD (Army, AF, Navy, Joint Staff, JFCOM, NDU) – Co-Chair
Department of State/USAID – Co-Chair
DOC, DOE, DHHS, DHS, DOJ, DOT, NASA, NSF, CIA
Pre- and Post-Conflict Threats Convergence of WMD proliferation, global terrorism and failed/weak states: Pre- and Post-Conflict Threats Convergence of WMD proliferation, global terrorism and failed/weak states “One of the principal lessons of the events of September 11 is that failed states matter – for national security as well as for humanitarian reasons. If left to their own devices, such states can become sanctuaries for terrorist networks, organized crime and drug traffickers as well as posing grave humanitarian challenges and threats to regional stability.” Final Report of the bi-partisan Commission on Post-Conflict Reconstruction January 2003
Post-Conflict Operations: Post-Conflict Operations Conflicts have become much more frequent during the post cold-war era
U.S. military is superior and unmatched in conflict OPs
Today, post-conflict costs outstrip conflict costs in
duration
dollars
political capital domestically and internationally
U.S. casualties (in Iraq)
We need to conduct pre- and post-conflict operations as decisively as conflict Ops
Pre- and Post-Conflict OPs Characterization: Pre- and Post-Conflict OPs Characterization
Regional Stability IWG Scope Terms of Reference: Regional Stability IWG Scope Terms of Reference Regional Stability/Nation Building (RS/NB) focus – information, social and physical systems contributing to the establishment of self-sustaining capacity (for the host nation and USG) and to the achievement of USG goals in complex pre- and post-crisis operations, including security, initial humanitarian assistance, limited governance, restoration of essential public services, and other reconstruction assistance.
IWG Requirements and Products Terms of Reference: IWG Requirements and Products Terms of Reference The Regional Stability IWG will:
Assess technical and cultural barriers to implementation of regional security systems; address interagency issues and policy impediments;
Determine the relevant ongoing S&T investment within member Agencies;
Formulate a prioritized assessment of R&D needs and identify gaps in current programs;
Recommend possible action on major R&D issues to the Subcommittee on National Security R&D for consideration.
RS/NB Required Capabilities and Needs: RS/NB Required Capabilities and Needs Discussed required capabilities and needs
Combine DOD and DOS perspectives on capabilities, needs and priorities
Post Conflict Planning in Iraq – USAID Perspective, 16 April 2004
Stability Operations Joint Operation Concept, 5 March 2004
Army Transformation Roadmap
Other assessments (AWC, RAND, J8 Report)
Regional Security and Nation Building Challenges in Iraq: Regional Security and Nation Building Challenges in Iraq
Security impact on progress and cost
Sabotage and Looting
Logistics constraints on transportation, materials, equipment and labor
Anticorruption efforts will require focus
“DeBaathification” is difficult at best
Major deterioration of Infrastructure due to decades of neglect and poor maintenance
War damage affected communications, selected buildings, roads and bridges
CPA/PMO Program Prioritization Criteria: CPA/PMO Program Prioritization Criteria Largest positive impact on the Iraq Population
Security
Economy/Employment
Essential Services
Governance
Timing to support major initiatives
Lead time for Construction
e.g. Thermal Power Plants
Natural precedence of Construction and Operation
e.g. Bridges before Railroad tracks
Policy/doctrine impediments: Policy/doctrine impediments Mandate for complex contingency ops (CCO) planning, legislation, budget
USG intention toward nation assistance is not equally understood
Common definitions (ie secure, stable) & success (as opposed to exit) criteria
Classification/proprietary information utilization & sharing, esp with coalition partners
Research & Development Constructs: Research & Development Constructs Operations/
Complex Contingency Sectors Technology
Thrust Areas Technologies/Products
Enabling technologies: Enabling technologies Horizontal integration – cultures, systems, legislation, tools, processes, plans, organizations
Information delivery & sharing systems
Situational awareness & decision tools
Communications
Modeling & simulations
Logistics/Physical delivery systems
Threat identification, tracking and neutralization
Complex Contingency Sectors: Complex Contingency Sectors Security System Reform - Donna & Paul
Civil Law and Order/Public Security
Institutions of Civil Society- Dayton & Ed
Governance
Education
Human Rights and Social Development
Infrastructure Reconstruction – Rick & Gene
Humanitarian Assistance – Dayton & Andy
Economic Reconstruction – Don
Diplomacy and Public Diplomacy - Donna
Security System Reform: Security System Reform
Civil Law and Order/Public Security
Holistic approach to establish security (e.g. Afghanistan approach) coordinating the host country (as well as the international community assistance) military, police, judiciary, legislative, civil gvt leadership and civil society contributions.
OECD/DAC has studied a holistic approach to achieving a stable security sector in developing countries since the mid-late 1990s, given its importance to development assistance work. It has used the phrase “Security System Reform” which is getting more and more widespread attention. This holistic approach is being applied to both Afghanistan through the efforts of the UK’s Department for Development Assistance and by CPA/Iraq through the collective efforts of the DOD, USAID, RAND, and UK technicians there. The latest progress is the subject of the OECD/DAC High Level meetings this week in Paris.
The Coalition in Iraq has made considerable progress toward establishing modern, well trained Iraqi security forces that will, in time, be capable of maintaining security and enforcing the rule of law.
45 of the 55 most wanted members of the former Iraqi regime have been captured or killed.
Over 150,000 Iraqis are in the security forces in Iraq, including the new Iraqi army
Every day the new Iraqi security forces work side by side with coalition forces, sharing information which leads to the arrest of terrorists and former regime elements
Over 1000 joint patrols are conducted daily to help secure the country.
Institutions of Civil Society: Institutions of Civil Society
Governance: We seek to assist host country leaders and their populations to establish a representative government, sustained by democratic elections, a civilian-managed security sector, and an effective rule-of-law including a protection of human rights. Some of the more basic processes include:
A constitution drafted and approved by representatives of the population
Institutions and processes to conduct free and fair elections
Open and transparent political processes
Measures to improve the effectiveness of elected officials, including strengthened local governance systems
Effective and fair judicial systems
The creation and protection of a vibrant civil society
Institutions and processes to address and prevent violence used to redress grievances
Anti-corruption systems in place in both national and local governance institutions.
(Taken from the CPA/Iraq strategic plan of July, 2003.)
Institutions of Civil Society: Institutions of Civil Society
Education: Education requirements for crisis and post-crisis countries are important for several reasons. The restoration of schools and education institutions is part of the Restoration of Essential Services which is a standard requirement in all post-conflict reconstruction activities. Education reform in countries approaching crisis may be necessary as part of the conflict prevention measures which can be taken.
Repair of schools and re-stocking of school supplies permits school children to resume their normal education schedule; Early re-opening of secondary and higher education institutions takes young people off the streets and contributes to the future education base of the country
Establishment of early technical training programs in post-conflict countries provides a broader base for host country enterprises to participate in the reconstruction efforts, assists in the demobilization of the military, and is a productive use of time for unemployed young people.
Opening schools in refugee and internally displaced persons camps is essential to their reintegration to society when they return home.
Inappropriate education systems are a detriment to both the host country and to international stability. Neglected support for education systems, particularly at the primary level, leads to this. Education reform and greater support for education systems in these situations is essential.
The digital divide has been identified as one area of education for poor countries that needs attention and resources. As a result, experiments and projects have been instituted to equip rural schools and community enterprises with computers to determine if bridges to the modern age can be built in poor areas.
Training at the senior government levels is absolutely necessary in post-crisis periods to develop the host country governance capacity to run an effective government. Simulations can be developed to assist with this in the “total immersion” manner. One example is the Marketing Economics Simulation developed by IDA and currently being used by USIP to train Iraqi members of the new Iraq Ministry of Defense. This is an area ripe for R&D.
Institutions of Civil Society: Institutions of Civil Society Human Rights and Social Development: Most actions in this area are covered under Governance (Institutions of Civil Society - above) or a broad category of non-government Civil Society institutional development. This topic area challenged us in Iraq until we decided to incorporate it all under the general heading of Governance. Civil Society development is crucial, however, in most crisis situations because they arise from authoritarian governments which don’t permit the existence of effective civil society organizations. To focus on the need to develop the non-government civil society institutions, these points cover the range:
Professional associations (e.g., teachers, students, lawyers, clerics, businesses, doctors) can serve to provide educated leadership to hold governments accountable to the population, and can participate in constitutional changes, addressing crucial economic issues, and resolving conflict.
Community groups can serve to represent their communities, including holding police and military responsible for their actions (e.g., implementing the concept of community policing).
Labor unions seem to always appear during times of strife.
Ethnic civic organizations can be both helpful and self-serving, thus working with these groups requires good judgment.
Economic and trade groups (e.g., bankers, chambers of commerce) can serve to promote the necessary investment and assist to establish a favorable investment climate.
Indigenous NGOs engaged in charity or human rights activities always play a vital role.
Infrastructure Reconstruction: Infrastructure Reconstruction
Infrastructure is the linked system of facilities and activities that provides the range of essential services generally necessary to support our economy and quality of life
Infrastructures which are so vital that their incapacitation or destruction would have a debilitating impact on defense or national security. They include: transportation, oil and gas production and storage, water supply, electrical power, emergency services, government services, banking and finance, sewage and waste services, and telecommunications.
Over $5B in Construction contracts has already been awarded for Power Generation; Transmission/Distribution/Communications and Controls; Public Works; Water Resources; Buildings, Education & Health; Transportation; Communications; Security & Justice
Economic Reconstruction: Economic Reconstruction Economic Reconstruction – Includes financial infrastructure and commerce
In Spring 2003, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Donald L. Evans created the Iraq Investment and Reconstruction Task Force within the International Trade Administration to help U.S. companies participate in the economic rebuilding of Iraq.
CPA Orders 80 and 81 are designed to bring Iraq's laws on patents, trademarks, industrial designs, undisclosed information (trade secrets), integrated circuits and plant varieties up to current internationally-recognized standards of protection, in particular those required by the World Trade Organization.
There is truly enormous potential for economic growth in Iraq
Capacity-building in the oil industry has increased Iraq’s average annual oil revenue from $9B to $16B since June 03
Iraqi currency has been unified and strengthened by issuing new Dinars and removing counterfeit notes from the market. The value of the Iraqi Dinar has already increased 25%.
Small businesses are springing up in all fields throughout the country
New construction projects are popping up across the country. Contracts awarded this year for reconstruction projects could produce thousands of jobs in Iraq.
Humanitarian Assistance: Humanitarian Assistance The massive humanitarian assistance (HA) operations that have emerged over the past 14 years since the end of the Cold War have served to improve the practices, procedures, technologies and ethics of the communities engaged in them.
The US remains a lead donor and contributor to HA operations. USAID’s Offices of Foreign Disaster Assistance and Food for Peace and State Department’s Population, Refugees and Migration (PRM) office fund and oversee these activities.
The UN agencies which become “lead organizations” are the World Food Program (WFP), the UN High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR), the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF), the World Health Organization (WHO) and the UN Office of Complex Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) are the main offices engaged.
The use of IT systems has grown more sophisticated for both assessments on-the-ground (satellite communications systems and collaborative information systems) and for tracking commodities (including systems to identify gaps in supplies needed vs. those being supplied).
A problem area which has developed increasing sensitivities is the necessity for the military to engage in HA due to a lack of security. Security issues for civilian HA activities will probably require increasing attention if security requirements during operations continues to grow.
Diplomacy and Public Diplomacy: Diplomacy and Public Diplomacy Diplomacy-
Official intercourse between governments on issues of mutual interest, exchange of information, intent & plans
Public Diplomacy
Activity outreach by which the USG educates foreign populations on American values, interests and goals
Increased understanding of American values, policies & initiatives to create a receptive international environment
Infrastructure Reconstruction R&D Areas: Infrastructure Reconstruction R&D Areas Pre-conflict: Focus is on information dominance. See and understand first. Primary technologies/capabilities required are planning, remote/standoff assessment and predictive tools.
Mission Analysis - Tools are needed to address requirements for specific functions and required infrastructure/ resources.
Remote/rapid Infrastructure Assessment - used for multiple purposes. Examples:
Life support for area non-combatants (routes for food, supply, water, power)
Economy of the area
Targeting and minimizing of collateral damage while maximizing weapons effects
Repair and infrastructure enhancement (capabilities in hydrodynamic and contaminant transport modeling could be essential for bio/chem threat and vulnerable infrastructure such as dams and bridges.)
New construction/Infrastructure
Planning tools/capabilities:
Reconstitution of war damaged infrastructure (damage estimates; construction methods, equipment and materials; cost and time).
M&S and Corps civil emergency planning expertise to develop pre-conflict plan for rerouting people and commodities in the face of a national crisis.
Predictive tools:
Behavior- used to predict when local populations will likely become a threat.
Infrastructure - used to characterize infrastructure when sensors cannot provide absolute or real time data. E.g. likely routing/location of utilities, composition/layout of structures.
Survivability FY06-11 $811M: Survivability FY06-11 $811M Detect & Neutralize Mines & “Booby Traps” Countermine for Assured Mobility Signature Management Radar Deception Structural, Electromagnetic,
and Smart Armors Intercept direct and indirect munitions Survive the hit Avoid detection & acquisition Don’t be Seen! Don’t be Killed! Don’t be Acquired! Don’t be Hit! See First / Act First Don’t be Penetrated! Don’t be Seen! Full Spectrum Active Protection, Chemical Energy OTM Kinetic Energy OTM
R&D Near Term Concentration Areas: R&D Near Term Concentration Areas Enterprise GIS
State Dept (Humanitarian information unit)
Army (Infrastructure, Mobility)
Navy (Targeting)
Complex Adaptive Systems
CNA; SFI; NRL; ARI
Pre- and Post-Conflict IT & Force Multiplier Solutions
DARPA
Simulation of complex emergency reconstruction planning
IDA; FEMA; DMSO
Enterprise Geographical Information System (EGIS): Enterprise Geographical Information System (EGIS) What is EGIS?
Central database that is accessed by multiple organizations through wide-area and local-area networks, as well as access via traditional www net connections providing increased battlespace awareness for all participants to support planning trade-offs and decision tools.
Coordinated client – server architecture for acquisition, maintenance, and dissemination of geospatial data resulting in higher through-put.
Substantial savings due to large system-wide h/w and s/w buys at discount and integrated updates.
EGIS Products and Tools: EGIS Products and Tools Enterprise GIS Database:
Integrated GIS
Database that
Supports all
Applications Common Applications:
Mission Planning
Mission Rehearsal
Embedded Training
Battle Simulation
Manned & UAV Nav Enterprise
GIS DB E-GIS Characteristics:
Common Geodatabase
Fuse/Integrate Data Types From Various Sources
Supports Multiple, Common Applications
Dynamically Updateable
Support Variable Resolution/Fidelity Data Common
C2, MPRS,
ET, Nav
Apps Foundation
Geospatial
Data Feature Data (include Attributes, Values)
Elevation Model
Imagery Sources
(NTM/Commercial/Civil) Additional
Types of Data
& Enhanced
Data Enhanced Tactical Feature Data
Impacts/Effects
3D Models
Forces/Force Behaviors
Weather Effects GIS
TOOLBOX Geospatial Analysis and Visualization Geospatial Data Collection and Updates Geospatial Data Integration and Management Terrain Reasoning Info Generation Tactical
Sensor
Data Collect
NTM & Commercial
Sensor
Data Collect
Iraq Reconstruction Tracking System: Iraq Reconstruction Tracking System Following standardization
of terminology, alignment
of software with work flow
process, interface refinement, data entry and
testing, the Iraq reconstruction tracking system
was operational
July 7, 2003.
Slide29:
Current Systems
Mature to Support
JC2 and
DoD DCGS TPC MIPS/GIPS DTSS Digital Topographic Support System (USA) TPC Topographic Production Capability (USMC) MIPS Multispectral Imagery Production System (USAF) GIPS Geospatial Imagery Production System (USAF) Navy FoS Family of Systems (USN) DTSS Navy FoS JC2 Joint Command and Control DCGS Distributed Common Ground/Surface System Joint Geospatial
Capabilities EGIS Compatibility
IRAQ GIS Examples: System permits access and
display of images IRAQ GIS Examples Map data at multiple scales Database information in ArcGIS
Complex Adaptive Systems: Complex Adaptive Systems A complex adaptive system (CAS) behaves/evolves according to three key principles:
Order is emergent as opposed to predetermined
The system’s history is irreversible
The system’s future is often unpredictable
Examples of CAS would include economies, ecologies, weather, traffic patterns, social organizations, networks, cultures, and more recently, the study of terrorist networks and organizations - including evolution, innovation, adaptation, mutation, and collapse.
Research into complex adaptive systems during the 1980’s and 90’s has resulted in models and simulations that better represent reality.
Slide32: How interdependent are infrastructures? Peerenboom, Fisher, and Whitfield, 2001
Slide33: Understanding failures in complex systems Tightly-coupled, complex systems - systems sufficiently complex to allow unexpected interactions of failures to occur such that safety systems are defeated, and sufficiently tightly coupled to allow a cascade of increasingly serious failures ending in disaster. (Perrow) Self-organizing criticality - “…large dynamic systems self-organize into a highly interactive critical state where even minor perturbations can lead to events, or “avalanches” of all sizes,…these large catastrophic events occur as a consequence of the same dynamics that produce small, ordinary events. No ‘quick fix’ solution can stabilize the situation and prevent fluctuations.” (Bak) Complex Adaptive Systems - framework for understanding systems with many actors and possible strategies and outcomes. Communications between groups can enhance information transfer but can have disastrous consequences when broadly held knowledge is wrong. (Axelrod and Cohen)
Related CAS areas: Related CAS areas Modeling Terrorism and Complex Adaptive Systems Workshop
provide a discussion forum for researchers examining and modeling terrorist behaviors from the context of complex, adaptive systems.
seeks to form a partnership between researchers and security analysts concerned with understanding terrorist behaviors, with the complexity science community, to facilitate meaningful, applied research to the study of terrorist networks and organizations - including evolution, innovation, adaptation, mutation, and collapse.
Network Dynamics – Longer Term CAS: Network Dynamics – Longer Term CAS The ubiquity of networks in the social, biological and physical sciences and in technology leads naturally to a set of common problems.
How do social networks mediate the transmission of a disease or the emergence of a new political order?
How do cascading failures propagate throughout a large power transmission grid or a global financial network?
What is the most efficient and robust architecture for an organization in an uncertain environment or for a distributed computer?
Research on large-scale networks builds on what is known as "emergent dynamics" -- the emergence of a system's global properties and capabilities which are not prespecified by network design and are difficult or impossible to predict from knowledge of its constituent parts. It draws on expertise in understanding emergent properties of relatively simple systems.
Pre-Conflict Operations: Pre-Conflict Operations Conflicts are expensive
Significant cost savings can be attained in conflict avoidance
Intel and Communication tools could help stabilize legitimate govts
Infrastructure Analysis & Support could aid surgical strikes, lessening conflict devastation
IT and social sciences could enable anticipating and shaping societal instability and violence mitigating military intervention "With the vast distances in our theater, covering 52% of the world's surface – from Alaska ... to Madagascar – and a wide variety of potential contingencies, the secret to success is speed of understanding, speed of deployment, and speed of decision.” (Admiral Dennis Blair's April 2, 2002 remarks to the Pacific and Asian Affairs Council Conference) PACOM AOR
Post-Conflict Operations: Post-Conflict Operations Develop technologies to implement lessons learned
Create tools to increase cooperation, coordination and communication
Develop Rapid Response and Force
Multiplier Products
Create a greater “perceived”
military/police presence ISR
Non-lethality
Communication
Dual-use protective
technologies
Interagency Working Group (IWG) for Regional Stability and NationBuilding: Interagency Working Group (IWG) for Regional Stability and NationBuilding Products: “IWG’s examine needs, construct roadmaps, identify gaps, and propose plans”*
Members:
Core Group - 8-10
Technology Group - expanded
Schedule:
02 Apr Initial meeting
06 May Update for Subcommittee
15 Oct Draft Report
01 Dec Final Report
* Subcommittee on National Security R&D Meeting 25 Nov 2003
Way Ahead for Regional Security/Nation Building IWG: Way Ahead for Regional Security/Nation Building IWG Approval of Terms of Reference
Concurrence on
Co-lead
Framework
Approach
Schedule
Recommendations/Comments?
* Subcommittee on National Security R&D Meeting 25 Nov 2003
Slide40:
BACK-UP SLIDES
Lessons Learned & Needs: Lessons Learned & Needs Dept of State perspective
Interagency and multinational virtual collaboration tools and policies for simultaneous parallel planning (deliberate horizontal integration of information and decision processes)
Real-time visibility on status of deployed or deploying forces, including civilian police and peacekeeping forces
Better tools for all-source intel fusion, analysis and dissemination (global persistent ISR, artificial intelligence, info delivery systems)
Realistic measures of progress/metrics (qualitative & quantitative) toward accomplishment of mission objectives (Measures of Effectiveness, Normality Indicators, Production Information (electricity production, schools operating, pharmaceuticals delivered, town councils established) and Host Country Capacity
Institutions of Civil Society: Institutions of Civil Society
Agriculture: One area which has received some, but not sufficient, attention for R&D is the use of GIS technology for establishing a data base for a given crisis country on all aspects of the country’s physical assets: geography, agriculture, climate, natural resources, demography, political economy, transport systems, etc.
Infrastructure Reconstruction Needs: Infrastructure Reconstruction Needs Post-conflict: Act first/finish decisively. Information dominance remains a constant requirement. Ability to rapidly create and enhance infrastructure, enable SASO operations, while protecting forces and infrastructure becomes a priority.
Protection of area and linear infrastructure (surveillance and detection)
Rapid Infrastructure Assessment Technologies (examples)
Geotechnical Assessment of Construction Sites
Deconstruction/Recycling Analysis for Damaged/Destroyed Buildings
Assessment for Repair/Rehabilitation of structures
Meteorological/seismic/environmental risk assessment
Master planning support: e.g. Facility Acquisition Support Team (FAST) to assist in comprehensive planning at the urban and regional level.
Project management and design tools needed to rapidly develop/enhance/repair infrastructure: Examples include - rapid visualization technologies, Geographic Information System tools for infrastructure management, Anti-terrorist planning tools, Parametric Cost Estimating System/Sustainable Design, Dynamic Water Distribution tools.
Technologies for Stabilization and Reconstruction Operations (Center for Technology and National Security Policy): Technologies for Stabilization and Reconstruction Operations (Center for Technology and National Security Policy) Security
Distributed mission training
Civilian-military communications interoperability
Distributed and networked surveillance sensors
Network counter-terrorist analysis tools
Counter-sniper system
Lightweight and flexible body armor
Vehicle tagging and tracking
Penetrating radars
Non-lethal weapons
Unmanned vehicles for surveillance and threat neutralization
Defensive information operations Infrastructure
Education and training packages
Infrastructure equipment (water purification, electric power)
Civil infrastructure simulations and GIS overlays
Human Relations
Public information sources
Training tools for culture, linguistics
Mobile, real-time language translators
Elite leadership modeling
Infrastructure Reconstruction Needs: Infrastructure Reconstruction Needs Post-conflict (continued):
New technologies that rapidly create/enhance/repair infrastructure: Examples-
Materials that facilitate rapid construction derived from in situ sources
Hazardous waste/materials treatment: e.g. Plasma arc torches, which can melt or treat hazardous waste/material.
Deployable Wastewater Treatment System (DWTS)
Roller-Compacted Concrete
Geosynthetics and Chemicals for Soil Stabilization
Controlled Low-Strength Materials (Flowable Fill)
New technologies that provide expedient and logistically friendly augmentation to organic protection of soldiers and systems, as well as infrastructure.
Capabilities to evaluate the inter-dependencies of infrastructure systems, vulnerability to terrorist attack and impact
Slide46: Theoretical Foundations Research into the complex and adaptive behaviors of infrastructures to determine how they behave in the face of failure from a variety of causes: from physical or cyber attack, to a major earthquake, to physical failure of the network or its components. Modeling and Simulation - Modeling and simulation of interconnected complex infrastructures is rudimentary today. More advanced models, using actual regional or national infrastructure data, network layouts, and operating conditions are needed to uncover critical nodes, behaviors, and vulnerabilities. Mitigation, Response, and Recovery - In the event of a major infrastructure failure, isolating the affected portions of the system and preventing cascading failure will be key. Appropriate and safe steps must be identified for bringing the systems back on line. Policy Research - Policies applicable to one infrastructure may have unintended consequences in others, due to the linkages involved. Little is known about how this happens and how to reduce the likelihood of its occurring. Human/Technological Interface - Human error has played a major role in some of the most significant technological disasters of the past century. A better understanding of how systems can be designed to take human factors into account as well as decision tools that enable people to structure rational choices for technological interaction, are needed. Opportunities for collaboration
Complex Operation Sectors (from “Peace Building – Doctrinal Construct” Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership): Complex Operation Sectors (from “Peace Building – Doctrinal Construct” Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership) Security (Disarmament/ Demobilization/ Reintegration)
Economic and Developmental Assistance
Political Negotiations
Demining; Captured Enemy Ammo
Control Measures (Crowd, Urban, Weapons, Incident)
Security of Key Locations & Individuals
Ensure Freedom of Movement
Emergency Response to Crisis
Civil Law And Order/ Public Security
Reestablish & Support Police
Executive Policing
Reestablish and support Penal and Judicial systems
War Crimes & Corruption
Humanitarian Assistance
Emergency relief of water, food, shelter and medical
Care, protection and resettlement of refugees and Internally Displaced Persons
Public Diplomacy and Information Operations
Educational and cultural exchanges
Information activities
Local training and education of media
Assist in developing infrastructure
Reconstruction
Infrastructure Restoration
Reconstitution of power, transport, communication, health
Restore functioning of the economic production and distribution sector
Economic Transformation
Restore employment/job training
Initiate market reforms
Mobilize domestic & foreign investing
Supervise monetary reform
Rebuild Public structures
Governance, Civil Administration and Civil Society
Reestablish administrative framework
Support national constituting process
Support political reform & free elections
Reestablish Civil Society
Education
Human Rights, Social Reconciliation
Monitor Human Rights Violations (Women, Vulnerable Populations)
Land Reform
Establishment of reconciliation mechanisms
Establish Human Rights Education
Slide48: Need for Risk Assessment and Management In risk assessment for infrastructure systems, the analyst attempts to answer three questions: What can go wrong due to the interdependency and interconnectedness among critical infrastructures?
What is the likelihood that the interdependency and interconnectedness among critical infrastructures will cause major unacceptable consequences?
What might be these consequences? Risk management builds on the risk-assessment process by seeking answers to a second set of questions : What can be done to better understand the interdependency and interconnectedness among critical infrastructures, and to manage the adverse consequences from a threat?
What options are available in terms of organizational, institutional, research and development, among others, to add more surety and security to interdependent and interconnected critical infrastructures?
What are the impacts of current decisions made on the interdependency and interconnectedness among critical infrastructures on future options?
Play to Win Construct: Play to Win Construct Strategy and Planning
Implementation Infrastructure
Security – all aspects of public safety
Justice and Reconciliation
Social and Economic Well-being
Governance and Participation
Training and Education
Funding
Play to Win Construct: Play to Win Construct Strategy and Planning –
Articulate US interests at stake
Define US objectives for intervention
Lay out the strategy for achieving these policy objectives
Provide a clear division of labor delineating who is responsible
Implementation Infrastructure
Provide civilian leadership in the field
Provide mechanisms to rapidly mobilize existing resources
Develop mechanisms to coordinate civilian and military efforts
Play to Win Construct: Play to Win Construct Security – all aspects of public safety
Encompasses the provision of collective and individual security to the citizenry and to the assistors
Establishment of a safe and secure environment
Development of legitimate and stable security institutions
Diverse capabilities – border patrol, customs support, weapons collection, large-scale (belligerent groups) and targeted (indicted persons) apprehension; disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR)
Justice and Reconciliation
Mechanisms and institutions for upholding the rule of law and dealing with past abuses
Processes to address grievances, both past & present
Provide temporary executive police authority and
train & monitor indigenous police forces
Play to Win Construct: Play to Win Construct Social and Economic Well-being
Reconstruction
Reestablish people’s livelihoods
Employment and training for demobilized soldiers
Reduce war profiteers
Facilitate the return of foreign nations or permanent residents within the US
Governance and Participation
Support a process for constituting a legitimate government
Enhance the government’s capacities
Ensure broad participation in the government & reconstruction process
Play to Win Construct: Play to Win Construct Training and Education
Provide specialized training for personnel being set into the field
Provide training and education programs for indigenous organizations and individuals
Funding
Re-evaluate & retool our foreign affairs funding machinery
Provide funding