perfect storm

The Perfect Storm: 

The Perfect Storm HRI Jay J. Jamrog Executive Director, Human Resource Institute Distinguished Lecturer, The University of Tampa Jamrog@HRInstitute.info 727.345.2226

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The Perfect Storm A Labor Shortage? MAYBE A Skill Deficit? PROBABLY A Shortage of Knowledge Workers? DEFINITELY

Labor Shortage: 

Labor Shortage World’s Population will double in the next 40 years The greatest fertility will be found in those countries least able to support their existing population In contrast to the developing world, many industrialized countries will see fertility rates below replacement level and hence significant declines in population As a result, in 10 years or so, the workforce in Japan and much of Europe will shrink by 1% per year. By the 2030s, it will contract by 1.5% annually

Labor Shortage : 

Labor Shortage The long-term labor shortage continues to be a threat – 10 million-person shortage in U.S. by 2010, 40 million by 2015. 43% of the U.S. civilian labor force eligible to retire in next decade.

Skill Shortage: 

Skill Shortage The half-life of an engineer’s knowledge today is only five years. In electronics, fully half of what a student learns as a freshman is obsolete by his or her senior year. Rapid changes in the job market and work-related technologies will necessitate increased training for virtually every worker. In the next 10 years, close to 10 million jobs will open up for professionals, executives, and technicians in the highly skilled service occupations.

The U.S. Education System Failing to Deliver: 

The U.S. Education System Failing to Deliver Achievement scores in subjects such as mathematics and science progressively fall for U.S. students as they move from lower into higher level grades Colleges are significantly increasing the number of remedial courses required for entering freshmen

The U.S. Education System Failing to Deliver: 

The U.S. Education System Failing to Deliver With the 'Baby Boomlet' entering school, class sizes are dramatically up, and new classroom additions only marginally so There is a shortage of 2.2 million teachers in the K-12 system over the next 10 years Increasing reliance on e-learning solutions, necessitating increased investment in technologies and skills development, with uncertain results to date

The U.S. Education System Failing to Deliver: 

The U.S. Education System Failing to Deliver Approximately 20 million American adults are functionally illiterate Once they're settled into their jobs, only one in ten U.S. workers receives any new training

Knowledge Shortage : 

Knowledge Shortage 35 to 54 year olds are the prime-age category. Every day 10,000 people turn 55. By 2015 there will be a 15% decline in 35-54 yr. olds, while demand increases 25%.

Actual Number of Births per Year in the U.S.: 

Millions Depression 45.4 mil 1927 to 1945 2004 - 59 to 77 2014 - 69 to 87 Baby Boom 75.5 mil 1946 to 1964 2004 - 40 to 58 2014 - 50 to 68 Baby Bust 66.0 mil 1965 to 1983 2004 - 21 to 39 2014 - 31 to 49 Baby Boomlet 74.6 mil 1984 to 2002 2004 - 2 to 20 2014 - 12 to 30 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census Actual Number of Births per Year in the U.S.

Generational Markers: 

Depression Generation Great Depression Electrification World War II Cold War Baby Boom Generation Civil Rights War on Poverty Race to Space Assassinations Vietnam Impeachment Baby Bust Generation AIDS Video Games Homelessness Berlin Wall Technology Diverse Latchkey Kids Downsizing Baby Boomlet Generation Poverty The Environment Violence Columbine Terrorism Wired Medicated Generational Markers

Characteristics of Generations: 

Values Lifestyle Social Depression 1927 - 1945 Characteristics of Generations Baby Boom 1946 - 1964 Baby Bust 1965 - 1983 Baby Boomlet 1984 - 2002 Patriotic Loyal Prudent Idealistic Competitive Revolutionary Skeptical Resourceful Independent Optimistic Medicated Wired I like it, It’s O.K. Should I really like it? Will others? I like it, I don’t care what you think Who are you anyway? You’re old. Quality first, buy American Prestige first foreign is better Cheap: value added Get it at the Gap

Characteristics of Generations: 

On Relationships On Community Depression 1927 - 1945 Characteristics of Generations Baby Boom 1946 - 1964 Baby Bust 1965 - 1983 Baby Boomlet 1984 - 2002 On Balance Personal Sacrifice Personal Gratification Reluctance to Commit Inclusive Don’t quite get it Sandwich generation Want balance now Need flexibility to create it Must join the Rotary Rotary is a bore What is Rotary and who cares? Beachsweep neighborhood cleanup

Characteristics of Generations: 

On Religion On Exercise On Homes Depression 1927 - 1945 Characteristics of Generations Baby Boom 1946 - 1964 Baby Bust 1965 - 1983 Baby Boomlet 1984 - 2002 I care about religion Religion is a hobby What is religion? Will I get an 'A' in religion? Exercise is one option Exercise is a duty Exercise for mental health What’s your second sport? Buy a decent house Buy the most house you can Reclaim the inner city I like living with my parents

Characteristics of Generations: 

Value in Organization View of Leadership View of Authority Depression 1927 - 1945 Characteristics of Generations Baby Boom 1946 - 1964 Baby Bust 1965 - 1983 Baby Boomlet 1984 - 2002 Loyalty Similarities Relationships* Profitability Reputation 'Sink or Swim' 'Diverse Environment' Support System Stimulation Balance Feedback By Hierarchy By Consensus By Competence By Pulling Together Respectful Love/Hate Unimpressed andamp; Unintimidated Polite

Characteristics of Generations: 

Work Ethic View of Feedback Depression 1927 - 1945 Characteristics of Generations Baby Boom 1946 - 1964 Baby Bust 1965 - 1983 Baby Boomlet 1984 - 2002 Work hard, Save money, What is play? Work hard, Play hard, Worry about money Work hard if it doesn’t interfere with play, Save money Good grades, Make others pay Save money No news is good news Once a year with documentation Interrupts andamp; asks how they’re doing Wants feedback at touch of a button

Workers of different generations blend as they work together; age is not a major factor at work: 

Workers of different generations blend as they work together; age is not a major factor at work Source:HRI, 2001 Changing Workforce Survey

Environment Experience by Most Young People: 

Environment Experience by Most Young People Increased cultural awareness Dual income/career parents Technology as a toy Corporate Restructuring

Increased Cultural Awareness: 

Environment Experience by Most Young People Dual income/career parents Technology as a toy Corporate Restructuring Increased Cultural Awareness

Percent of Baby-Boom and Baby-Bust Generations by Race/Ethnicity: 

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census Baby Boom Baby Bust Percent of Baby-Boom and Baby-Bust Generations by Race/Ethnicity

Growing acceptance of cultural diversity is promoting the growth of a truly integrated global society. : 

Growing acceptance of cultural diversity is promoting the growth of a truly integrated global society. Within the U.S. and Europe, regional differences, attitudes, incomes, and lifestyles are blurring as business carries people from one area to another Intermarriage also continues to mix cultures geographically, ethnically, socially, and economically Minorities are beginning to exert more influence over national agendas as the growing number of minorities in the U.S. is mirrored by the expanding population of refugees and former 'guest workers' throughout Europe

Minorities in Top Management: 

Source: Federal Glass Ceiling Initiative While minorities make up almost 22 percent of the U.S. workforce... ... they represent only 2 percent at Fortune 2000 firms. White 78% White 98% Minorities 22% Minorities 2% Minorities in Top Management

Women in Top Management: 

Source: Catalyst’s Census of Women Corporate Officers and Top Performers Women in Top Management 46% of the U.S. Labor Force 48% of Managerial/Professional Specialty Positions 10% of Corporate Officers 9.5% of Board Directors 2.4% of Highest Titles 1.9% of Top Earners Two Fortune 500 CEO

Dual income/career parents: 

Environment Experience by Most Young People Increased cultural awareness Technology as a toy Corporate Restructuring Dual income/career parents

Labor Force Participation Rates of Married Women: 

Labor Force Participation Rates of Married Women Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Married Mothers, with Childrenin the Labor Force : 

Source: Catalyst, New York, NY Married Mothers, with Children in the Labor Force

Percent of Children by Number of Parents in Household: 

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 1970 1998 Percent of Children by Number of Parents in Household

Two-income couples are becoming the norm: 

Two-income couples are becoming the norm In 75% of U.S. households, both partners will work full time by the year 2006, up from 63% in 1992 In Europe today, dual-income households outnumber single-income households by about two to one. Countries in northern Europe tend to have a higher percentage of dual-income households than those in southern Europe Growing numbers of grandparents are raising their grandchildren. Among the poor, grandparents also provide live-in day care for the children of single mothers.

Perception of Quality of Life Over Time: 

Baby Boomer View HRI Perception of Quality of Life Over Time

Perception of Quality of Life Over Time: 

HRI Baby Bust View Death Layoff

ParentAdultChild: 

Parent Adult Child Parent Adult Child

Technology as a toy: 

Environment Experience by Most Young People Increased cultural awareness Dual income/career parents Corporate Restructuring Technology as a toy

The pace of technological change keeps accelerating: 

The pace of technological change keeps accelerating As late as the 1940s, the product cycle (idea, invention, innovation, imitation) stretched to 30 or 40 years. Today, it seldom lasts 30 to 40 weeks. Eighty percent of the scientists, engineer, and doctors who ever lived are alive today – and exchanging ideas in real time on the internet. All the technical knowledge we work with today will represent only 1% of the knowledge that will be available in 2050.

More “Hi Tech” - More “Hi Touch”: 

More 'Hi Tech' - More 'Hi Touch' Remote Distant Impersonal One size fits all I’m not important Need for affiliation Personal attention Recognize individual differences Customized response I’m important Hi Tech Hi Touch

Corporate Restructuring: 

Environment Experience by Most Young People Increased cultural awareness Dual career parents/latch key Technology as a toy Corporate Restructuring

Loyalty and Commitment has Vanished: 

Loyalty and Commitment has Vanished Tardiness is increasing; sick-leave abuse is common. Job security and high pay are not the motivators they once were. Young people watched their parents remain loyal to their employers, only to be downsized and out of work. Fifty-five percent of the top executives interviewed say that erosion of the loyalty and commitment will have a major negative effect on corporate performance in the future.

How important are the following strategies for attracting and retaining a loyal and committed workforce?: 

How important are the following strategies for attracting and retaining a loyal and committed workforce? Source: HRI, Loyalty and Commitment Survey

Key Issues Related toRetention and Engagement: 

Job Content Desire to contribute valuable work Require task variety to avoid boredom Increase marketable skills Quality of Co-workers Value intellectual stimulation Anticipate team environment Salary Match rising cost of living Key Issues Related to Retention and Engagement

Key Issues Related toRetention and Engagement: 

Career Growth Do not believe in 'paying dues' Want transferability of experience Work/Life Balance Refuse to be workaholics like parents 'work to live' not 'live to work' Key Issues Related to Retention and Engagement

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Human Resource Institute At The University of Tampa HRI www.HRInstitute.info