paper Columbia pipelines

When Pipelines Become Targets: 

When Pipelines Become Targets Costing the Consequences Jurgen Brauer Professor of Economics James M. Hull College of Business Co-editor, Augusta State University, Augusta, GA The Economics of Peace and Security Journal www.aug.edu/~sbajmb; jbrauer@aug.edu www.epsjournal.org.uk 1

When pipelines become targets …: 

When pipelines become targets … Costing the consequences Annualized revenue losses/gains ($/?) Iraq ($7.1b); Nigeria ($11.9b); Colombia ($2.5b) Replacement/displacement costs ($/?) Georgia (?); World Bank (500m urban poor); Guinea, Nepal, etc. (?); Egypt ($7b) Defensive/security costs ($/?) U.S.-Iraq ($630b); U.S.-Middle East ($20b); U.S.-Nigeria (?); U.S.-Colombia ($250m+) Repair/safeguarding costs (U.S.-Iraq: $3b/?) Environmental losses/costs ($10’s-$100’s/gallon) Avoidance/substitution costs (IEA: $120b/year?) 2

When pipelines become targets …: 

When pipelines become targets … Observations … Pipelines are easy prey ... 3 Caño-Limón-Coveñes pipeline. Source: GAO, 2005.

When pipelines become targets …: 

When pipelines become targets … Observations … Pipelines are easy prey ... … target substitution is also easy … 4 Caño-Limón-Coveñes pipeline. Source: GAO, 2005.

When pipelines become targets …: 

When pipelines become targets … Observations … Pipelines are easy prey ... … target substitution is also easy … … as is substitution of target location 5 Caño-Limón-Coveñes pipeline. Source: GAO, 2005.

When pipelines become targets …: 

When pipelines become targets … Observations … Pipelines are easy prey ... … target substitution is also easy … … as is substitution of target location Counter-strategy … Minimize 'effective mileage of exposure' Enlarge the 'optimization set' Multiply attack points Convert local populations into allies, not enemies Contrast Iraq-Iran; Nigeria-Angola; Colombia-Venezuela 6