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SST in Pacific Warm Pool (ODP site 806B, 0°N, 160°E) in past millennium. Time scale expanded in recent periods. Data after 1880 is 5-year mean.
Source: Medina-Elizalde and Lea, ScienceExpress, 13 October 2005;data for 1880-1981 based on Rayner et al., JGR, 108, 2003, after 1981 on Reynolds and Smith, J. Climate, 7, 1994.
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Science andamp; Implications
1. Warming andgt;1°C Risks ‘Different Planet’
- Maximum CO2 ~450 ppm
- Somewhat greater if non-CO2 ↓
2. Gas + Oil Use Most of 450 ppm Limit
- Coal/unconventional must sequester CO2
- Gas + Oil supplies must be stretched
3. Quarter of CO2 Stays in Air 'Forever'
- Eventual Vehicles must be Zero-CO2
(renewable, hydrogen from nuclear or solar, etc.)
- Eventual Power Plants must be Zero-CO2
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Inferences (Opinions)
1. Building/Vehicle Efficiencies Critical
- Needed to Stretch Oil/Gas Supplies
- Needed for Future Non-Carbon Energy
2. Both Incentives and Standards Needed
- Rising Price on Carbon Drives Innovation
- Efficiency Standards Proven Effective
3. United States Leadership Essential
- Large Emissions, Tech andamp; Political Leader
- Developing Countries cannot be expected to act until the U.S. Takes First Step
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Fossil Fuel Facts andamp; Opinions
1. Value Fossil Fuels andgt;andgt; Mining Cost
- $$$$ Pocketed by Middle East andamp; Russia
- Those $$$$ Fund Many Things
2. Steadily Rising Carbon Tax
- Can Be Revenue Neutral
- Nonpartisan Tsar Adjusts Rate (a la Fed. Res.)
- Spurs Technology Devel. andamp; Efficiency
- Energy Need per GDP Decreases
3. Results
- Energy Independence andamp; National Security
- $$$$ to U.S. Treasury, not Middle East/Russia
- Improves U.S. International Competitiveness
- Good High-Tech High-Pay Jobs in the U.S.