FAR Legislative Strategy Session Stroh 2005

FAR Legislative Strategy Session: 

Robert C. Stroh, Sr., Director Shimberg Center for Affordable Housing University of Florida 14 September 2005 FAR Legislative Strategy Session

Shimberg Center: 

Shimberg Center Established in 1988 – F.S. 1004.46 Activated 1989 Business lines Teaching – Residential development Housing Policy & Programs Housing Technology Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse

Contacts: 

Contacts Toll free 800-259-5705 Web site www.shimberg.ufl.edu Housing data Bill O’Dell, Asst. Dir. billo@ufl.edu Policy & Programs Anne Williamson, Asst. Dir. arwill@ufl.edu Housing technology Bob Stroh, Director stroh@ufl.edu

Florida Housing Data: 

Florida Housing Data Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse began four years ago with joint funding from the Florida Housing Finance Corporation (FHFC) and the Shimberg Center. The Clearinghouse provides a common reference point for the health of Florida’s housing stock. The Clearinghouse makes fact-based decision-making possible relative to housing.

Housing in Florida: 

Housing in Florida Two Florida markets: Large urban & coastal counties Small rural counties Affordability factors: Household incomes Housing prices Mortgage rates

Slide6: 

Affordability Factors Household Incomes Housing Prices Mortgage Rates Regions: South / Central / North Florida Examples: Palm Beach/Tampa-St.Pete/Duval

Median Household Incomes: 

Median Household Incomes

Household Incomes: 

Household Incomes Median income increased in all but five counties 1990-2000 Losers: Brevard (0%), Hardee (-1%), Hendry (-2%), Miami-Dade (-4%), and St. Lucie (-1%) Big Winners: Dixie (19%), Holmes (22%), Jefferson (20%), St. John’s (28%)

Occupation/Employment Groups: 

Occupation/Employment Groups Ability to find affordable housing Occupation/Employment Groups Service workers: Mechanics, Secretaries, Bartenders, Retail, Housekeeping, Receptionists, Security, Tellers, Waiters. Construction: Laborers, Electricians, Plumbers, Carpenters, Painters, Truck drivers. Finance: Accountants, Financial planners, Insurance agents, Credits analysts. Public Service: Firemen, Police, Postal carriers Managers: Engineering, Food service, Lodging, Construction

Single-family Home Choices: 

Single-family Home Choices

2-bdrm Apartment Option: 

2-bdrm Apartment Option

Slide12: 

Affordability Factors Household Incomes Housing Prices Mortgage Rates

Florida House Price Appreciation(adjusted for inflation): 

Florida House Price Appreciation (adjusted for inflation) Year Inflation Apprec 1971-80 8.11 1.41 1981-90 4.51 -1.50 1991-00 2.76 0.21 2001-03 1.94 6.81 2003-prelim 1.88 7.16

Indexes: 

Indexes Indexes used to relate housing price to household income Interpreting Indexes require caution: Index is misleading when wide variation present Truncated data sources are misleading

Affordability Index : 

Affordability Index Affordability Index = (Median family income/Qualifying income) x 100 Higher index value > Easier to afford median priced home Lower index value > Harder to afford median priced home Index indicates relative changes within a county over time and relative affordability of housing across counties

Affordability Index Trends: 

Affordability Index Trends

Slide17: 

Affordability Factors Household Incomes Housing Prices Mortgage Rates

Mortgage Rates: 

Mortgage Rates I’ll leave that up to you to deal with!

Housing Need Indicator: 

Housing Need Indicator Low Income/Severely cost-burdened Households at or below 80% AMI Paying more than 50% for mortgage or rent The Clearinghouse provides current estimates and projections for 2002-2025

Affordable Housing Market: 

Affordable Housing Market

Affordable Housing Need in Florida: 

Affordable Housing Need in Florida

The Affordable Home Market: 

The Affordable Home Market Major Challenges Finding qualified buyers – work with community-based non-profit to screen applicants Assembling up-front cost – SHIP money helps in many counties Homebuyer Training – Work with non-profit or county extension office

Florida Housing Data: 

Florida Housing Data Visit the Clearinghouse web site… www.flhousingdata.shimberg.ufl.edu or Contact the Shimberg Center at 800-259-5705

County/City Comparisons: 

County/City Comparisons Projected Construction Demand, 2025 Jefferson County 613 Lafayette County 862 Gulf County 925 Hamilton County 989 Orange County 236,720 Miami Dade County 279,813 Palm Beach County 286,862 Broward County 420,578

More Housing Data: 

More Housing Data HH head age HH Income HH Family size by age HH Tenure ---------------------------------- 2000 Census data for consolidated plan AHNA – for use in preparation of housing element 2000 Census for annual PHA plan for HUD Housing by County/city Mortgage cost Cost burden Values Age/Condition/Size Projected SF/MF demand SF & Mfgr sales/yr Condo sales yr & price

Geographic Displays: 

Geographic Displays 2002 Median Single Family Sales Price