c kurtoglu

TURKEY: a New Corporate World for Europe: 

TURKEY: a New Corporate World for Europe Celik Kurtoglu Leiden 2 December 2004

EU: A PRINCIPAL TRADING PARTNER FOR TURKEY: 

EU: A PRINCIPAL TRADING PARTNER FOR TURKEY EUROPEAN MARKETS HAVE TRADITIONALLY BEEN MAJOR DESTINATION FOR TURKISH PRODUCTS IN 2000 TRADE WITH EU WAS UP BY 13.4% AND ACCOUNTED FOR 47.9% TOTAL TRADE;EXPORTS ACCOUNTED FOR 51.4%, IMPORTS FOR 45.5%. TURKEY’S OPENNESS IS 40%OF GNP AS OF 2003

STRONG RECOVERY: 

STRONG RECOVERY TURKEY UNDERWENT HEAVY ECONOMIC CRISIS IN 2001 WITH MAJOR IMPACT ON THE FINANCIAL SECTOR RECOVERY WITNESSED LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY INCREASE OF 9.5% OVER THE LAST 10 QUARTERS TREND GROWTH RATE OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY UP FROM AN AVERAGE OF 2.4% IN THE 90s,TO 6.3% IN THE LAST 3 YEARS TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY ROSE FROM 0.5 % IN THE 90s, TO 4.8% IN THE LAST 3 YEARS, RAISING THE CEILING OF POTENTIAL GROWTH RATE

VOLATILITY VERSUS STABILITY : 

VOLATILITY VERSUS STABILITY OUTPUT VOLATILITY (STANDARD DEVIATION OF THE GROWTH RATE OF REAL PER CAP GDP) HAD RISEN FROM AN AVERAGE OF 2.43 IN THE 70s, TO 2.70 IN THE 80s,5.37 IN THE 90s AND TO 7.28 OVER THE CRISIS YEARS DUE TO POLITICAL UNSTABILITY AND INSTITUTIONAL CONSTRAINTS. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT OUTPUT VOLATILITY WILL DECLINE DRAMATICALLY IN THE COMING PERIODS, LEADING TO AT LEAST 1.5-2 % INCREASE IN GROWTH RATE OF PER CAP INCOME

STABILITY AND THE CORPORATE SECTOR: 

STABILITY AND THE CORPORATE SECTOR THE CORPORATE SECTOR RESPONDED TO IMPROVEMENTS IN POLITICAL CERTAINTY BY EXPANDING CAPITAL OUTLAYS BY 65.1% IN REAL TERMS 1H04, FOLLOWING A 20.3 INCREASE IN 03 THE GROWTH RATE OF BUSINESS SPENDING ON MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT ROSE TO 94.1% IN 04, AFTER A RISE OF 52.5% IN PREVIOUS 2 YEARS.

AN ANCHOR: 

AN ANCHOR DEPTH OF THE CRISIS HELPED EFFICIENCY OF THE IMF ANCHOR IN 2001 EUROPE’S ENDORSEMENT OF TURKISH PROSPECTS WILL INCREASE MARKET CONFIDENCE, ENCOURAGE FDI, ESTABLISH A VIRTUOUS CIRCLE AN EU ANCHOR WILL CREATE THE HOT HOUSE EFFECT, REDUCE/ELIMINATE TRANSACTION COSTS

“BEAT THE DEVIL”: 

“BEAT THE DEVIL” H.BOGART: HOW HAS ENGLAND PRODUCED SUCH MAGNIFICIENT LAWN? THE GARDENER REPLIES: GET SOME GOOD GRASS AND ROLL IT EVERY DAY FOR 600 YEARS.

DOES TURKEY HAVE THE GOOD GRASS: 

DOES TURKEY HAVE THE GOOD GRASS MILESTONES OF DEVELOPMENT 1930s FIRST PHASE OF INDUSTRIAL INVESTMENT COMBINED WITH INCREASE IN HUMAN CAPITAL IN MECHANICAL&CHEMICAL INDUSTRIES 1950s CIVIL ENGINEERING, PROJECT MANAGEMENT CAPABILITIES 1960s IMPORT SUBSTITUTING INDUSTRIES 1980s EXPORT LED LEAP 1996 CUSTOMS UNION 2001 OVERHAUL OF THE ECONOMY

TURKISH BUSINESS INTERNATIONAL: 

TURKISH BUSINESS INTERNATIONAL CONTRACTORS PRECEDED THE MANUFACTURERS MANUFACTURERS FOLLOWING THE PRODUCT CYCLE: TEXTILES, GARMENTS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT, OEM, AUTOMOTIVES AND AUTOMOTIVE COMPONENTS MANUFACTURERS BECOME PROCESS/PRODUCT DESIGNERS,IPR GAINS SIGNIFICANCE

TURKISH INDUSTRY GLOBALIZING: 

TURKISH INDUSTRY GLOBALIZING WHITE GOODS MANUFACTURING IN ROMANIA HOME TEXTILES IN FRANCE SODA AND FLAT GLASS IN BULGARIA POLYESTER PLANT IN BRAZIL CLOTH AND GARMENTS IN UZBEKISTAN, TURKMENISTAN AND THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION WHITE GOODS IN UZBEKISTAN REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT IN RF, KAZAKSTAN,AZERBAIJAN RETAIL IN RF, AZERBAIJAN,KAZAKSTAN, BULGARIA

TOURISM:YET TO BE EXPLORED: 

TOURISM:YET TO BE EXPLORED ALL INTERNATIONAL CHAINS PRESENT PRINCIPAL TURKISH OPERATORS ACQUIRED BY GIANTS OF EUROPE 14 M.IN 2003, YIELDING USD9.7b 16.5M ESTIMATED FOR 2004 (USD 12.9b) TOURISTS ORIGINATE FROM: GERMANY (24%), SPAIN, NETHERLANDS, GREECE; EU 14 ACCOUNT FOR 44%, RUSSIAN TOURISTS ACCOUNT FOR 10%

OPPORTUNITIES: 

OPPORTUNITIES DOWNSTREAM TEXTILE INDUSTRIES AUTOMOTIVE COMPONENTS MANUFACTURING FOOD INDUSTRIES FARMING FRUITS AND VEGETABLES ANIMAL HUSBANDARY AND MEAT PROCESSING DAIRIES

A REGIONAL HUB: 

A REGIONAL HUB ASIA’S OIL AND GAS FLOWS THRU TURKEY TURKEY SUPPLIES THE ENTIRE RANGE OF CONSUMER PRODUCTS TO A 350M MARKET MAJOR INTERNATIONAL CONCERNS COORDINATE THEIR REGIONAL ACTIVITES FROM ISTANBUL ETHNIC DIVERSITY PROVIDES THE HUMAN INFRASTRUCTURE TO FACILITATE REGIONAL INITIATIVES

CONCLUSIONS: 

CONCLUSIONS TURKEY HAS: THE WILL THE HUMAN WHEREWITHALL THE INDUSTRIAL INFRASTRUCTURE AND THE ENTREPRENEURIAL CAPABILITIES TO SECURE A WIN-WIN PARTNERSHIP