The Problem:
The Problem Escalated Tensions Since Late 1990s
Taepodong I
Kumchang-ri
Taepodong II
Possible Hypotheses:
Possible Hypotheses Domestic Determinants
Kim il-Sung’s principle of juche
Does not agree with premise of power politics
International Environment
Bilateral security relationship between U.S. and Japan
Relationship designed to manage the post-Cold War security situation in Asia
Individual Level of Analysis
Compare approaches of Clinton and Bush Administrations
Case Study:
Case Study Clinton Administration
Security dilemma
Policy of engagement
The 1993-1994 Crisis: IAEA, NPT
The 1994 Agreed Framework
The 1996 Republican Victory
Perry Report
Established bilateral relations
Case Study, Cont.:
Case Study, Cont. Bush Administration
Early policy shifts
Policy review upon arrival in office in 2001
Modified 1994 Agreed Framework -andgt; 'take it or leave it'
Definitive Standstill in October 2002
Assistant Sec. of State Kelly’s visit to Pyongyang
North Korea claimed that it was 'entitled not only to nuclear weapons, but any type of weapon more powerful than that so as to defend its sovereignty and right of existence from the ever growing nuclear threat by the U.S.'
Could have been resolved
Reversal of Clinton’s diplomatic successes
Summary and Conclusions:
Summary and Conclusions Clinton successfully engaged North Korea
Bush motivated North Korea to withdraw from international treaties, void U.S. agreements, and restart its nuclear weapons program
Immediate threat to Asian neighbors, long-term threat to U.S.