germany 1 27 05

Forums on Issues and Innovations in Real Estate (FIRE): 

Forums on Issues and Innovations in Real Estate (FIRE) Issues in Global Real Estate Markets Allgemeine HypothekenBank Rheinboden (AHBR) January 31, 2005 Dr. Tony Ciochetti MIT Center for Real Estate

MIT Center for Real Estate (CRE): 

MIT Center for Real Estate (CRE) Established 1984 Mission – “Transform the quality of the built environment and the real estate industry by providing a forum for education, research, and the exchange of ideas among the thought leaders of the global real estate community” Products: Master’s of Science in Real Estate Development (MSRED) program Interdisciplinary Research Platform Outreach Structure

CRE MSRED Program: 

CRE MSRED Program Core Courses Real Estate Economics The Products of Real Estate Development Real Estate Finance & Investment Legal Issues in the Development Process Real Estate Development Real Estate Capital Markets

MSRED Program: 

MSRED Program Electives (CRE, DUSP, Architecture, CEM, Engineering, Sloan, Harvard) Strategic Management in the Design & Construction Value Chain Urban Design & Development Housing and Community Development Community Growth and Land Use Planning Financing Economic Development Real Estate Finance & Development Fundamentals Urban Politics and Land Use Policy Economic Analysis for Business Decisions Finance Theory I Finance Theory II Investments Advanced Corporate Finance Options & Futures Markets Advanced Topics in Real Estate Finance

MSRED Program: 

MSRED Program Electives Leadership in Real Estate Housing Markets Housing Finance The Impact of Globalization on the Built Environment E-Commerce and the Internet in Real Estate & Construction International Construction Finance Entrepreneurship in Construction and Real Estate Development Innovative Project Delivery in the Public & Private Sectors Quantitative Reasoning & Statistical Methods for Planning I Site & Urban Systems Planning Planning for Sustainable Development. The Law and Politics of Land Use Housing & Human Resources Revitalizating Urban Main Streets Management & Policy in the Int’l Economy Designing & Leading the Entrepreneurial Organization

Recent Employers: 

Recent Employers Global real estate investment banking – CS First Boston, Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, Blackstone, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank Real estate investment management – AEW, GE Capital, RREEF, TA Associates, Lonestar, Colony Capital, Invesco, Fidelity, ING Clarion Real estate finance – John Hancock, Sun Life, World Bank, Freddie Mac, Moody’s, KeyBank, Carr Capital, Prudential, , HUD, Credit Suisse, Nomura, Bank of America Real estate development – Hines, Kravco, Leggatt & McCall, Trammell Crow, Related Companies, Tishman, Bovis-Lend Lease, Petrini, Taurus, Spaulding and Slye, HRO, Forest City Commercial

Recent Employers: 

Recent Employers Publicly traded companies – Boston Properties, Catellus, Pro Logis, AMB, Federated, Cousins, AvalonBay Commercial brokerage – CB Richard Ellis, Cushman and Wakefield, Meredith and Grew, Marcus and Millichap – corporate real estate includes Fidelity, Met Life, Boeing, Burger King, Dell, Staples Non-profit sector – City of Portland, Maine, Oakland California Community Housing, Enterprise Foundation, City of Toronto, Urban Redevelopment Authority (Singapore), Office of Management and Budget (NYC)

CRE Research Initiatives: 

CRE Research Initiatives Innovative, interdisciplinary, industry relevant Commercial Real Estate Data Laboratory (CREDL) New Century Cities Initiative Housing Affordability Initiative

CRE Outreach: 

CRE Outreach Professional Development Courses (PDCs) Fundamentals of Real Estate Finance Introduction to Commercial Real Estate Development Legal Issues in the Development Process Real Estate Markets: Location, Product, Timing Current Topics in Real Estate Finance and Investment Introduction to Portfolio and Asset Management Topics in Real Estate Development Affordable Housing VS Housing Affordability Executive/Custom Education

CRE Membership: 

CRE Membership Two-tier Membership Supporting Member (10K) Sustaining Member (20K)

CRE Membership: 

CRE Membership Benefits for Supporting Members Research Students (Thesis and Placement) PDCs Executive/Custom Education FIRE MITREX Annual Conference International Connetions

CRE Membership: 

CRE Membership Additional Benefits for Sustaining Member Advisory Board Private Dinner with an MIT Luminary MSRED Guest Lecturer Additional Representative Participation in Seminars and Annual Conference

2004 Returns Look Great!: 

2004 Returns Look Great! Source: TWR Investment

Transaction Volume up 47%!Equity Real Estate: 

Transaction Volume up 47%! Equity Real Estate

Prices per SF Trending Up!Year Over Year % : 

Prices per SF Trending Up! Year Over Year % Source: Real Capital Analytics

Prices per SF Trending Up!Year Over Year % : 

Prices per SF Trending Up! Year Over Year % Source: Real Capital Analytics

Slide17: 

TWR “Market Portfolio” 3yr Total Return (Office, Industrial, Multi-Housing, Retail; NCREIF Weighted)

This Ratio Screams Weaker Currency, Higher Interest Rates: 

This Ratio Screams Weaker Currency, Higher Interest Rates Source: TWR Investment

Foreign Investors Contributing As Never Before: 

Foreign Investors Contributing As Never Before % $ bil Source: TWR Investment

All Property Types Are Improving YoY: 

All Property Types Are Improving YoY Source: TWR Outlook XL Platform

Too Much Capital Means Continued Supply Multi-housing: 

Too Much Capital Means Continued Supply Multi-housing Source: TWR Investment

Market Conditions Vary (Gross Income): 

Market Conditions Vary (Gross Income) Source: TWR Investment

Multi-Housing “Market Portfolio” Total Return (unleveraged) : 

Multi-Housing “Market Portfolio” Total Return (unleveraged)

The Office Sector is Improving: 

The Office Sector is Improving Source: TWR Investment

Today’s Tenants Seek Real Estate Productivity: 

Forecast Today’s Tenants Seek Real Estate Productivity Occupied sqft Per Worker 2004$ Per sqft Source: TWR Investment

Slide26: 

The National Industrial Market Continues Improvement, Albeit At A Slow Pace Source: TWR Investment

TWR “Market Portfolio” Total Return(Office, Industrial, Multi-Housing, Retail; NCREIF Weighted): 

TWR “Market Portfolio” Total Return (Office, Industrial, Multi-Housing, Retail; NCREIF Weighted)

Retail “Market Portfolio” Total Return (unleveraged): 

Retail “Market Portfolio” Total Return (unleveraged)

TWR “Market Portfolio” Total Return(Office, Industrial, Multi-Housing, Retail; NCREIF Weighted): 

TWR “Market Portfolio” Total Return (Office, Industrial, Multi-Housing, Retail; NCREIF Weighted)

Office “Market Portfolio” Total Return (unleveraged): 

Office “Market Portfolio” Total Return (unleveraged)

Industrial “Market Portfolio” Total Return (unleveraged): 

Industrial “Market Portfolio” Total Return (unleveraged)

Prices Up Substantially!: 

Prices Up Substantially! Source: Real Capital Analytics 15%

Cap Rates Continued Falling: 

Cap Rates Continued Falling Source: NCREIF Sub 8 Apts. at 6

It’s About Relative Yield: 

It’s About Relative Yield NCREIF income return

Employment Is Almost Back: 

Employment Is Almost Back Source: TWR Investment

Wide Regional Job Differences: 

Wide Regional Job Differences Source: TWR Outlook Xl Platform Northeast

All Property Types Are Improving (YoY): 

All Property Types Are Improving (YoY) Source: TWR Outlook XL Platform

Rents Have a Way to Go!: 

Rents Have a Way to Go! Source: TWR Outlook XL Platform

. . . Subordination Levels are Plummeting . . . : 

. . . Subordination Levels are Plummeting . . .

Tangent Alert!: 

Tangent Alert!

Tangent Alert!: 

Tangent Alert!

Tangent Alert!: 

Tangent Alert!

Slide43: 

Up 45% In 2004 Up 30% In 2004 A Record-Breaking Year Market Volume Office, industrial, apartment and retail properties $5 million and greater Source: Real Capital Analytics

Slide44: 

Falling Cap Rates, Rising Prices Source: Real Capital Analytics

Slide45: 

Historic Cap Rate Spread Over Treasuries Its All Relative (to Interest Rates) Source: Real Capital Analytics

Slide46: 

Source: RCA, PPR, RS Means Its All Relative (to Replacement Cost)

Slide47: 

A Growing Disparity in Pricing Apartment Cap Rates Source: Real Capital Analytics

Slide48: 

The Major Market Makers Source: Real Capital Analytics

Slide49: 

750 buyers made acquisitions in at least 3 of the last 4 years 1,250 buyers made acquisitions in 2 of the last 4 years 8,000 buyers made only a single acquisition over the past 4 years One-Third of all buyers in 2004 were also sellers 10% of properties sold in 2004 ($25 billion) were held for 4 years or less A Huge, Fragmented Universe of Buyers Source: Real Capital Analytics

Slide50: 

Classifying The Capital Source: Real Capital Analytics

Slide51: 

Composition of Buyers by Property Type Source: Real Capital Analytics

Slide52: 

Market Fundamentals Interest Rates Capital Flows Cap Rates Asset Prices ? Influences & Outlook Source: Real Capital Analytics

Slide53: 

Volume ($billion) Price Per Sq. Ft. Cap Rate The Markets Office Source: Real Capital Analytics

Slide54: 

Volume ($billion) Price Per Unit (000’s) Cap Rate The Markets Apartments Source: Real Capital Analytics

Slide55: 

Volume ($billion) Price Per Sq. Ft. Cap Rate The Markets Industrial/Flex Source: Real Capital Analytics

Slide56: 

Volume ($billion) Price Per Sq. Ft. Cap Rate The Markets Strip Shopping Centers Source: Real Capital Analytics

Real Estate Capital Markets: Debt: 

Real Estate Capital Markets: Debt Commercial Banks

Real Estate Capital Markets: Debt: 

Real Estate Capital Markets: Debt Source: Federal Reserve

Real Estate Capital Markets: Debt: 

Commercial Mortgage Loan Delinquency Rates Real Estate Capital Markets: Debt 0 Source: ACLI % Delinquent 1Q65 4Q69 2Q76 4Q81 2Q92 2Q03 7.53% 26 22 42 42 0.35%

Real Estate Capital Markets: Debt: 

Real Estate Capital Markets: Debt Source: ACLI Why such good performance? Source: ACLI

Real Estate Capital Markets: Debt: 

Real Estate Capital Markets: Debt Where are we now?

Real Estate Capital Markets: Debt: 

Real Estate Capital Markets: Debt Summary Credit availability – excellent Short term rates - +75-150 bp Long term rates - +50-100 bp Mortgage spreads – slight/moderate uptick

Real Estate Capital Markets: Equity: 

Real Estate Capital Markets: Equity Real Estate Return Performance Source: NCREIF, LaSalle Investment Management Research

Real Estate Capital Markets: Equity: 

Real Estate Capital Markets: Equity Property Capitalization Rates Source: SSR Realty Advisors, NCREIF

Real Estate Capital Markets: Equity: 

Real Estate Capital Markets: Equity Where will the capital come from? Private REITs ($8 to 10 billion) 1031 Exchange Buyers ($2 to 3 billion) US Pension Funds ($12 to $15 billion) Public REITs ($8 to 10 billion) Endowments and Foundations ($2 to 3 billion) Source: LaSalle Investment Management

Real Estate Capital Markets: Equity : 

Real Estate Capital Markets: Equity Historic US Real Estate Returns -> Future Returns? Average Annual Returns Source: NAREIT (Equity REITs), NCREIF, Bloomberg, LaSalle Investment Management

Real Estate Capital Markets: Equity: 

Real Estate Capital Markets: Equity Georgescu-Roegen, 1958 Many idle controversies involving the nature of expectation could be avoided by recognizing at the outset that man’s conscious actions are the reflection of his beliefs and of nothing else. Source: Torto Wheaton Research

Real Estate Capital Markets: Equity: 

Real Estate Capital Markets: Equity Forrest Gump, 1994 Stupid is as stupid does. Source: Torto Wheaton Research

Real Estate Capital Markets: Equity: 

Real Estate Capital Markets: Equity Summary Equity capital availability – good/excellent Expected performance Cap rates – trend up slightly/moderately Income yield – down slightly Total returns – down moderately/significantly

Space Markets: Office: 

Impact of Office re-engineering Space Markets: Office Occupied sqft Per Worker 155 160 165 170 175 180 185 190 195 200 205 210 215 220 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 Occupied Square Feet Per Worker Real Rent Source: Torto Wheaton Research

Space Markets: Office: 

Space Markets: Office Measured Recovery -140 -100 -60 -20 20 60 100 140 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Construction Absorption Vacancy Absorption and Construction, sqft x 1,000,000 Vacancy Rate, % Includes non-market trends from 9/11 Source: Torto Wheaton Research

Space Markets: Office: 

Space Markets: Office Problem: R.I.P. vs. Market Rent NOI TW Rent Index ($ per square foot) TW NOI Index ($ per square foot) Source: Torto Wheaton Research

Space Markets: Industrial: 

Space Markets: Industrial Lackluster Growth -140 -100 -60 -20 20 60 100 140 180 220 260 300 340 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Construction Absorption Availability Absorption and Construction, sqft x 1,000,000 Availability Rate, % Source: Torto Wheaton Research

Space Markets: Industrial: 

Space Markets: Industrial Rent Recovery, but NOI drop Source: Torto Wheaton Research

Space Markets: Industrial: 

Space Markets: Industrial Implications Uptake slow Rents Etc. Overall returns to sector down

Space Markets: Retail: 

Space Markets: Retail Retail Sales

Space Markets: Retail: 

Space Markets: Retail Why?

Space Markets: Retail: 

Space Markets: Retail Modest Retail Rent Growth 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.5 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 TW Rent Index ($ per square foot, 2004$) Source: Torto Wheaton Research

Space Markets: Retail: 

Space Markets: Retail Until Supply Kicks In 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.6 8.8 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.6 Construction Absorption Availability Absorption and Construction, sqft x 1,000,000 Availability rate, %

Space Markets: Retail : 

Space Markets: Retail Summary Current yield good NOI growth down, but position Cap rates flat Returns down only slightly

Space Markets: Multifamily: 

Space Markets: Multifamily Source: Department of Housing and Urban Development

Space Markets: Multifamily: 

Space Markets: Multifamily Supply Overhang 0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Completions ( L ) Absorption ( L ) Vacancy Rate ( R ) Forecast Units Thousands Vacancy Rate Percent Source: Torto Wheaton Research

Space Markets: Multifamily: 

Space Markets: Multifamily Slow Rent Growth

Space Markets: Multifamily: 

Space Markets: Multifamily Summary Condo conversion, product demand  aggressive pricing? Interest rates Concessions soften, rents firming  NOI growth Cap rates up slightly Returns good relative basis

Economic Wildcards: 

Economic Wildcards Federal Deficit

Economic Wildcards: 

Economic Wildcards Trade Balance

Economic Wildcards: 

Economic Wildcards Personal Saving Rate

Economic Wildcards: 

Economic Wildcards Federal Debt Held by Foreigners

Economic Wildcards: 

Economic Wildcards Exchange Rate

Economic Wildcards: Summary: 

Economic Wildcards: Summary Trade and Federal Deficits – 7-9% of GDP Personal savings rate ~ 2% High foreign investment in US Weakening dollar Toss in election, middle east, energy ….potential for increasing inflation

Implications for Commercial Real Estate: 

Implications for Commercial Real Estate Plenty of debt/equity capital Debt rates up slightly Cap rates flat to down slightly Space markets Office Warehouse Retail Multi-family Where does this leave us?

Summary: 

Summary Forrest Gump, 1994 Life is like a box of chocolates, you never know what you’re going to get.

US CMBS Issuance: 

US CMBS Issuance 1985 – 2004P $Bn Actual Projected 1$77.3 billion priced as of November 12, 2004 Does not include Agency CMBS or resecuritizations. Source: Morgan Stanley Estimates, Commercial Mortgage Alert 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 03 04P1

CMBS Delinquencies1 by Property Type: 

CMBS Delinquencies1 by Property Type Source: Morgan Stanley, Intex 0.95 1.13 130/60/90/Foreclosure/REO 0.80 1.73 1.56