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The North Korean Nuclear Test: Conflicting Views on the Problem: 

The North Korean Nuclear Test: Conflicting Views on the Problem POLICY DIALOGUE European Policy Centre 13 December 2006 Maelbeek Room, Residence Palace, 155 rue de la Loi, 1040, Brussels

Introduction: 

Introduction The Nuclear Test: Was it or Was it Not? Who Benefits from the North Korean Nuclear Program? Implications for the Region Whither the Six-Party Talks? The Role of Europe

The Nuclear Test: Was it or Was it Not?: 

The Nuclear Test: Was it or Was it Not? Russia received a two-hour warning and assumed: « the power of detonation was equivalent to 5-15 killotons of dynamite » and never revised its opinion China received 20 min. warning and assumed: « the power was 4 -10 kilotons » but later revised its opinion South Korean Earthquake Research Centre in Daejeon received no warning and assumed the power was 800 tons US Military, 10 days after the test, assumed the power of detonation was 500 tons

Alleged Test Site: 

Alleged Test Site

Test Circumstances: 

Test Circumstances Two years after a mysterious mushroom cloud appeared in the same area one day before DPRK National Day (8.9.2004.) After the unsuccessful test of Teapodong-2 in July 2006 (on US Independence Day) One day before the Korean Workers’ Party Day (9.10.2006) Every test (failed or successful) is designed to attract domestic and international attention

Northeast Asia (NEA) – - The Region of Instability?: 

Northeast Asia (NEA) – - The Region of Instability?

Who Benefits from the North Korean Nuclear Program?: 

Who Benefits from the North Korean Nuclear Program? For North Korea: Energy source for devastated economy Bargaining tool in negotiations with the West Domestically, creation of the image of “strong and powerful nation” in line with the “Army First Politics” Potential use in case of military conflict

Who Benefits from the North Korean Nuclear Program?: 

Who Benefits from the North Korean Nuclear Program? China and Russia believe that: The North Korean economy may improve (less handouts will be needed from PRC and Russia) The North Korean state will strengthen due to increased domestic mobilization (which will reduce the chance of regime collapse and subsequent chaos, refugees, etc.) North Korea might be able to “defend” itself in case of open military conflict (China and Russia may not need to fulfill their Security Treaty obligations)

Who Benefits from the North Korean Nuclear Program?: 

Who Benefits from the North Korean Nuclear Program? US and Japan expect that: North Korea will continue to suffer from the UN-imposed sanctions (which entail the higher chance of regime implosion) The negative image of North Korea can be used to achieve their own domestic and international goals (US presence in the region will continue, US-Japanese strategic alliance will strengthen)

Who Benefits from the North Korean Nuclear Program?: 

Who Benefits from the North Korean Nuclear Program? South Korea experiences: Decline in Foreign Direct Investments (potential investors fear instability) Tourism diverted, the opening of new transportation routs suspended (inter-Korean railway, maritime links, airspace) Difficulty in pursuing the policy of engagement (“Sunshine Policy” / “Peace and Prosperity”) and the policy of deterrence (PSI) at the same time A domestic split in public opinion (“South-South Conflict”)

Whither the Six-Party Talks?: 

Whither the Six-Party Talks? JAPAN ROK PRC DPRK USA RUSSIA

Whither the Six-Party Talks?: 

Whither the Six-Party Talks? Impossible to combine the interests of six different participants (who have traditionally belonged to opposing security alliances) without reproducing the onld « cold war » structure JAPAN ROK PRC DPRK USA RUSSIA

Six-Party Talks: 

Six-Party Talks Must be replaced by bilateral negotiations on mutual security assurance and economic cooperation to create a new regional picture DPRK USA ROK JAPAN PRC RUSSIA

Six-Party Talks: 

Six-Party Talks Could be resumed in the future to set up a permanent regional forum in Northeast Asia May become attractive for new members JAPAN ROK PRC DPRK USA RUSSIA TAIWAN Mongolia

What is the Role of Europe?: 

What is the Role of Europe? Mediating role in security negotiations Credit assuarance for DPRK joining international finacial institutions (ADB, IMF, etc.) Supervision of technology transfer Education and Training

Turining Northeast Asia into the Region of Peace and Prosperity: 

Turining Northeast Asia into the Region of Peace and Prosperity The key to the North Korean nuclear problem lies in the hands of the United States Cooperation between NEA powers is crucial European involvement is desirable

Want to Know More about North Korea?: 

Want to Know More about North Korea? Visit www.north-korea.boom.ru