Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief Economist ECONOMIC RESEARCH DEPARTMENT : Philippe d’Arvisenet Global Chief Economist ECONOMIC RESEARCH DEPARTMENT THE WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Conferences BNP PARIBAS, Thursday 6th October, 2005


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Slide6: I - UNITED STATES


Slide7: STRONG ACTIVITY … GDP growth reached 4.2 % in 2004 We expect about 3.5 % in 2005 and 2006 Katrina : lower activity end 2005, acceleration at the beginning of 2006 Growth components : consumption moderating somewhat as a result of high oil prices (not much risk related to the level in indebtedness, job creations and compensations favourably oriented, long rates remain at a record low) investment to remain strong (sound financial situation of the corporate sector, higher rates of capacity utilisation, favourable financing conditions, manufacturing mini cycle bottomed out) exports supported by the lower dollar but impacted by weakness in European investment.


Slide8: … INFLATION PRESSURES SHOULD REMAIN CONTAINED wages: towards an impact of the unemployment getting closer to NAIRU productivity gains: in line with their long term trend … NORMALISATION IN MONETARY POLICY WILL BE ACHIEVED SOON.


Slide9: … IMBALANCES fiscal policy, the cycle delivers: fiscal deficit will be significantly below expectation long term problems persist ... current account widening the dollar is likely to remain under pressure


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Slide38: II - EUROLAND


Slide39: what leading indicators tell us : growth below potential once again in 2005 and 2006 domestic demand is lagging; high unemployment, low increase in real wages impact households confidence and consumption the financial situation of the corporate sector has strongly improved, and external demand is likely to be sustained, but the weak domestic demand will prevent a strong recovery in investment the renewed strength of the euro will dampen the contribution of external demand to GDP growth significant and structural national differences across member countries


Slide40: fiscal policies under stress; the stability pact has been watered down, several countries (Italy, Portugal, Greece …) have entered the EDP (Excessive Deficit Procedure), France and Germany likely to overshoot the ceiling of 3% of GDP in 2005 monetary policy to remain accommodative core inflation outlook is still favorable and growth disappointing no price-wage spiral despite oil shock liquidity is abundant with consequences on asset prices, but with no general push to domestic demand and consumption prices as yet the appetite to implement structural reforms remains mixed towards a lasting wait & see stance


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Slide58: III - UNITED KINGDOM


Slide59: ACTIVITY : WEAKER GROWTH Manufacturing activity has bottomed out stagnant retail sales after a period of moderation following the cooling of the housing market business and financial services remain dynamic INFLATION : ABOVE BUT CLOSE TO 2% TARGET inflation at 2.4 % in August 2005 favourable base effects (energy) in the coming months however: retail prices are less responsive to sluggish sales


Slide60: RISK : MAINLY ON THE DOWNSIDE housing market - cooling could be faster than anticipated wages - generous pay settlements could push inflation up and undermine competitiveness POLICY : THE WRONG MIX Fiscal policy : too accommodative - economy is close to potential but deficit is close to 3% GDP Monetary policy : MPC shows no appetite for further easing after August rate cut


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Slide67: IV - JAPAN


Slide68: JAPANESE ECONOMIC RECOVERY GOES ON GDP growth has been booming during H1 (4.5% saar) and should slow somewhat in H2 ...both investment and consumption should back domestic recovery HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION RECOVERY SEEMS WELL ROOTED Private consumption has been booming in H1, in line with the fall in the jobless rate … … and the expectation of an end to deflation Furthermore, wages, which are positively correlated with a lag to corporate profits, have resumed since the beginning of this year


Slide69: WHAT CHANGES IN MONETARY POLICY? Core CPI (excl. fresh food) are still in negative territory (-0.2%) but much less than before (-1% early 2003) A very moderate increase in prices is expected to show up next year Then, the BOJ will shift for its quantitative easing to an interest rate objective The yen is likely to strengthen versus the dollar


Slide70: IT IS KEY TO ACHIEVE FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY The public deficit represents 7% of GDP and the public debt 170% Primary fiscal deficit is 6%; a stabilization of the debt ratio requires 1.5% of primary surplus A complete reshuffle of Japan’s tax system as well as a continuation of structural reforms are absolutely perquisite to raise Japan growth potential and help the country cope with the challenge of its ageing population.


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Slide80: V - CHINA


Slide81: Economic growth still strong, although moderating from 9.5% in 2004 to 9%- 8% in 2006-07. Significant effect of restrictive measures to reduce economic overheating (credit growth under control) Inflation is subdued : the control of domestic prices limits the impact of high global oil prices Low impact of the change from the peg to a currencies basket system : de facto still highly controlled exchange system despite some liberalisation Comfortable external financial position : large current surplus, huge foreign reserves


Slide82: But some negative factors to monitor : Strong external trade tensions and difficult trade compromises could hamper exports prospects Renewed doubts about statistical reliability Increasing social tensions Rising costs continuously erode corporate margins and increase local firms vulnerability to an economic downturn (especially for sectors in excess of supply) All in all, over medium term growth potential still strong but possible reversal of current business cycle over short term and adjustments at the microeconomic level


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Slide92: List of charts 1 : World GPD and trade growth 2 : Oil price and world growth 3 : Nominal and real oil price 4 : Output gap I - UNITED STATES charts n° 5 to 25 5 : Real GDP growth and ISM 5bis : Consumer confidence of the Conference Board 6 : Household income 7 : Compensation and employment 8 : Participation and unemployment rates 9 : Household consumption and saving 9bis : Residential investment as % of GDP 10 : Mortgage applications


Slide93: 11: Household debt and investment 12 : Home equity loans as % of household mortgage debt 12bis : Household debt and delinquency rate 12ter : Housing affordability index and household debt payment 13 : GDP growth and GDP deflator/unit labor cost ratio 13bis : Corporate profits and nonresidential investment 14 : Capacity utilisation rate and private investment 14bis : Corporate financing gap and investment as % of GDP 15 : 10-year interest spread and Senior loan officer survey 16 : Labor costs and inflation 17 : Core inflation 18 : Price expectations 19 : Interest rates and inflation 20 : Nominal interest rates from the end of recession 21 : Real interest rates from the end of recession 22 : Current-account & budget balances and savings 22bis : Public receipts and expenditures as % of GDP 23 : Purchases of US Treasuries 24 : USA/Euro zone, interest and exchange rates 25 : External position


Slide94: II - EURO ZONE charts n° 26 to 42 26 : Real GDP growth, USA, Japan, Eurozone 27-28 : PMI and GDP growth 29 : Consumer confidence and private consumption 30 : GDP and employment growth 31 : Eurozone/USA, unemployment rate 32 : Effective exchange rate and real exports 33 : Real GDP components growth/country 34 : Repo rate and inflation 35 : Labor cost, productivity and GDP deflator growth 36 : M3 and credit growth 37 : M3 and target 38 : Monetary aggregate growth 39 : Nominal GDP / M3 40 : OATei and expected inflation 41 : Fiscal balance/country 42 : Italy/Germany, 10-year interest rate spread


Slide95: III - UNITED KINGDOM charts n° 43 to 48 43 : Real GDP growth 44 : House price and retail sales 45 : UK/Euro zone, PMI 46 : House price and loans on dwellings approved 47 : Public budget and debt 48 : Interest rates and inflation


Slide96: IV - JAPAN charts n°49 to 57 49 : Real GDP and domestic demand growth 50 : Exports growth 51 : Consumption and investment 52 : Profits and Tankan’s surveys 53 : Orders and leading indicator 54 : Labour market 55 : Employment growth and job offers to applicants ratio 56 : Wages, inflation and savings 57 : Interest and exchange rates


Slide97: V - CHINA charts n° 58 to 66 58 : Real GDP growth 59 : M2 and credit growth 60 : Inflation 61 : Fixed assets investment growth and interest rate 62 : Discount and lending rates 63 : Fiscal balance 64 : Foreign trade 65 : Balance of payments 66 : Banking liquidity