NTA China

National Transfer Account China: 

National Transfer Account China NTA Workshop I NUPRI, Tokyo, Japan Qiulin CHEN 陈秋霖 CCER, Peking University Beijing, China October 27, 2005

Description: 

Description Rural NTA -- Only rural individual survey data now Household survey from the Department of Agriculture Annually statistic data: Statistic Yearbook, and other special yearbook Population census data (aggregate) Has to combine the individual and household data Has not cleaned it well. Should be more careful Household expenditure/income data Can not reach some results required A Practice -- Preparation for the research

Slide3: 

Some results The great curve NTA Table What we have?

Lifecycle Deficit: 

Lifecycle Deficit 1.2.1 earnings Income from labor working for a factory or government 1.2.2 benefits no benefit data in this survey 1.2.3 self-employment labor income Farmers are regarded as self-employment and 2/3 of their income is calculated as labor earnings About the Labor income Lowess the sum or sum those have been lowessed

Lifecycle Deficit: 

Lifecycle Deficit About the wage The young have more labor earning because many young rural people work outside the village, which is an important reason of “China Price”. Something may be wrong with the older group. Use estimation to deal with the wage because have no individual wage Using average of wage in an family will got another result.

Lifecycle Deficit: 

Lifecycle Deficit 1.1.1       Public consumption Use the structure of Government Budgetary Expenditure to estimate the government consumption expenditure (in the national account) 1.1.1.1 Education Distribute the total education expenditure by the budgetary expenditure of school at different level. Estimate the student number at different level by age ( using the enrollment at different level by age from the census data) 1.1.1.2 Health Per capita (because it is public health expenditure) 1.1.1.3 Others Per public  1.1.2 Private consumption Only have total household consumption data, so just deal with them by the estimation on the other consumption. No estimation of health and education expenditureH Education Health Others

Asset Reallocation: 

Asset Reallocation 2.2 Private Asset Reallocations 2.2.1.1 Private capital inflow Inflow: income from the capital and borrow from the bank Banks lend most money for production in rural China

Asset Reallocation: 

Asset Reallocation 2.2.1.2 Private capital onflow Onflow: operational investment, bond and saving, interest payed Banks lend most money for production in rural China 2.2.2 Private land Land is owned by the government, the privatization is a hot topic now. 2.2.3 Credit  inflow

Asset Reallocation: 

Asset Reallocation 2.1 Public Asset Reallocations Because of the data restriction, we use the public capital income as residual and calculate the public saving. Public saving is the net government debt (both domestic and foreign)= new debt – pay for interest and principle 3.1 Public Transfers Inflow:No cash inflow, only government expenditure. Outflow:tax are distribute according their related payers

Transfers: 

Transfers 3.2 Private Transfers Intra-house transfer: can not estimate now. Need household health/education/ other expenditure share inter house transfer: support from relatives outside the family

The Great Cure of China－individual: 

The Great Cure of China －individual Why the older has no deficit of surplus? Check carefully the consistency of the data The estimation method household total consumption Wage earning may be overvalued The great curve now looks not very great! ?

NTA table of Rural China －aggregate: 

NTA table of Rural China －aggregate Only aggregate the rural data (rural population) Population distribution: Use the current total population (2002) distributed by the population census data (2000)

Slide13: 

Problems 研 About definition About methodology About data

National Transfer Account formula: 

National Transfer Account formula Lifecycle Deficit Asset Reallocation Transfers Income Consumption Income Investment Outflow Inflow

Slide15: 

What’s going on? Access of proper database Population census data Expenditure survey data Health service data Adjusting statistical items to NTA account As a transitional country, there is a lot of policy and institutional factors As a big country, the difference among area may affect the consistency Theoretical discussion Lifecycle transfers in Marco-econ Model Method development Other way to solve coming problems

Thanks: 

Thanks Welcome to CHINA Peking Univ. CCER 谢 谢 Thanks!