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Influence of zodiacal dust on the Earth's climate Victor Ermakov1, Victor Okhlopkov2, and Yuri Stozhkov31 Central Aerology Observatory, Rosgidromet, Dolgoprudny, Moscow region 2 Skobel’tsyn Research Institute of Nuclear Physics, Moscow State University, Moscow3 P.N. Lebedev Physical Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia: 

Influence of zodiacal dust on the Earth's climate   Victor Ermakov1, Victor Okhlopkov2, and Yuri Stozhkov3 1 Central Aerology Observatory, Rosgidromet, Dolgoprudny, Moscow region 2 Skobel’tsyn Research Institute of Nuclear Physics, Moscow State University, Moscow 3 P.N. Lebedev Physical Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia 20th ECRS Lisboa Portugal 5-8 September 2006

Recently, the warming up of the Earth climate, which occurred in the 20th century, is widely discussed.  There are two different standpoints explaining this phenomenon. According to the first of them, the warming up occurred due to the antropogenic action on the Earth climate. According to the other one, this warming up is of natural origin.  The existence of two different points of view testifies to the fact that the basic causes governing climate variations are not finally revealed up to now.  This study is devoted to analysis of reasons for climate variations and is aimed at the prognosis of these variations in the nearest future. : 

Recently, the warming up of the Earth climate, which occurred in the 20th century, is widely discussed. There are two different standpoints explaining this phenomenon. According to the first of them, the warming up occurred due to the antropogenic action on the Earth climate. According to the other one, this warming up is of natural origin. The existence of two different points of view testifies to the fact that the basic causes governing climate variations are not finally revealed up to now. This study is devoted to analysis of reasons for climate variations and is aimed at the prognosis of these variations in the nearest future. 20th ECRS Lisboa Portugal 5-8 September 2006

The goals of this study:- climate changes in the the near and far past;- the investigation of physical mechanism driving the climate changes;- prognosis of climate changes in the nearest future. : 

The goals of this study: - climate changes in the the near and far past; - the investigation of physical mechanism driving the climate changes; - prognosis of climate changes in the nearest future. 20th ECRS Lisboa Portugal 5-8 September 2006

Earth climate variation in the near and far past The prognosis concerning the variation of the Earth climate is impossible without analysis of data on its changes in both the near and far past. Information on the climate variations for past 126 years (from 1880 to till now) can be extracted from the available direct observations of the air temperature near the Earth surface (data from the world global net of meteorological stations (see ftp://ftp.Ncdc/noaa/gov/pub/data/anomalies/global_meanT_C.all). : 

Earth climate variation in the near and far past The prognosis concerning the variation of the Earth climate is impossible without analysis of data on its changes in both the near and far past. Information on the climate variations for past 126 years (from 1880 to till now) can be extracted from the available direct observations of the air temperature near the Earth surface (data from the world global net of meteorological stations (see ftp://ftp.Ncdc/noaa/gov/pub/data/anomalies/ global_meanT_C.all). 20th ECRS Lisboa Portugal 5-8 September 2006

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20th ECRS Lisboa Portugal 5-8 September 2006

In this period, climate warming up by 0.8—1 ˚C occurred. However, periods of the slight cooling off within the time intervals of 1880—1910 and 1945—1970 and periods of maximum warming up within the intervals of 1910—1945 and 1975—1998 were observed. These climate variations are difficult to explain by the antropogenic activity since it was continuously enhancing in the period under consideration. : 

20th ECRS Lisboa Portugal 5-8 September 2006 In this period, climate warming up by 0.8—1 ˚C occurred. However, periods of the slight cooling off within the time intervals of 1880—1910 and 1945—1970 and periods of maximum warming up within the intervals of 1910—1945 and 1975—1998 were observed. These climate variations are difficult to explain by the antropogenic activity since it was continuously enhancing in the period under consideration.

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20th ECRS Lisboa Portugal 5-8 September 2006 Next Figure shows the data on the air-temperature variations in the region of the Vostok station (Antarctica) for last 400 000 years [Petit J. R., Loizel J., Raunaud D., et al., Nature, 399, 429 (1999)]. The data have been obtained as a result of the isotopic analysis (18O and D) of ice cores to the depth of 3300 m. The warming up and the cooling off periods changed each other several times. The temperature variations attained 6 oC and higher. These climate changes usually related to long-periodic (secular) Earth-orbit variations are known as Milankovich periods. The secular variations are caused by perturbations of 8 other planets of the Solar system, which affect the Earth orbit.

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20th ECRS Lisboa Portugal 5-8 September 2006 The air temperature changed for the last 520 x 106 years according to paleoclimatic data (Veizer J., Godderis Y., and Francois L. M. Nature, 408, 698 (2000)). For the indicated interval of time, the Solar system 4 times passed through the Galaxy arms. In these cases, 4 climate changes from cooling off to warming up and vice versa have occurred. While changing the climate, temperature variations attained 5˚C and higher. The occurring climate changes could be associated with an influence of the Galaxy arms matter on the Solar system (Mazeev O. A. Astron. Vestn. , 38, No. 4, 372 (2004).

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20th ECRS Lisboa Portugal 5-8 September 2006 Conclusions - In 20th century the value of global warming was (0.8 – 1.0) оС; - The climate changes occurred in the past when antropogenic influence on climate was absent; At the time scales of (104 – 108) years the temperature changes reached 5 oC and more.

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20th ECRS Lisboa Portugal 5-8 September 2006 r2S(1 – A) + WЗ = 4r2Tе4, 1.2*1017 W 1013 W S(1 – A)/4 = Te4 S = 1366 W/m2 – solar irradiance, A – albedo and Те – effective temperature of the Earth’s climatic system (atmosphere+ocean+lithosphere)

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20th ECRS Lisboa Portugal 5-8 September 2006 The changes of solar irradiance dS during 11th solar cycle is less than 0.1 % (~ 1 W/m2) These dS can give the corresponding dTS not more than 0.05 оС.

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20th ECRS Lisboa Portugal 5-8 September 2006 (E.Palle et al., Can Earth’s Albedo and Surface Temperature Increase Together?, Eos, v. 87, No. 4, pp. 37, 43, 2006)

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20th ECRS Lisboa Portugal 5-8 September 2006 Conclusions - The global warming up occurred in 20th century at 0.8 – 1 oC can be explained by the changes of the albedo of the Earth’s climatic system. It corresponds to the increase of solar irradiance at ~ 16 W/m2. - The contribution of human activity in this process is not more than 2.5 W/m2 (Climate changes, UNEP RKIKOON, Moscow, 3-2, 2003) or less than (15 – 20) %.

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20th ECRS Lisboa Portugal 5-8 September 2006

The same inverse dependence between dust concentration and temperature was found in Greenland ice cores for the past 100 thousand years.These dependences demonstrate that dust comes to the Earth from interplanetary space (not from the Earth’s surface). : 

The same inverse dependence between dust concentration and temperature was found in Greenland ice cores for the past 100 thousand years. These dependences demonstrate that dust comes to the Earth from interplanetary space (not from the Earth’s surface). 20th ECRS Lisboa Portugal 5-8 September 2006

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Jupiter Earth Main belt of asteroids Zodiacal dust cloud Venera 20th ECRS Lisboa Portugal 5-8 September 2006

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20th ECRS Lisboa Portugal 5-8 September 2006 Main source of dust is the destroying comets

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20th ECRS Lisboa Portugal 5-8 September 2006 There are several groups of comets (comet families). These families are related to the solar system main planets (Jupiter’s family, Saturn’s family and so on). Thus, in the variations of dust concentration, in the variations of albedo, and in the surface temperature variations the same beatings have to be observed. Global temperature spectrum, 1880 - 2005 Amplitude Phase Period 99 % .2765 125.3551 194.0357 .0831 .1567 25.2184 64.2959 .0777 .0698 18.9872 32.5329 .0698 .0724 7.8688 20.8962 .0609 .0440 11.7415 14.5267 .0500

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Main conclusions - The global warming up (1880 – 2005) can not be explained by the human activity or solar activity changes. The albedo changes of the Earth’s climatic system is the main cause of climate changes in the past and present times. The albedo value is defined by the dust flux coming to the Earth’s atmosphere from space. The dust flux is controlled by the motion of planets. On the base of spectral analysis of the global surface temperature data is shown that the cooling off is expected in the first half of the 21st century. 20th ECRS Lisboa Portugal 5-8 September 2006

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The eruption of Kluchevskaya sopka volcano in 1973 - 1974 20th ECRS Lisboa Portugal 5-8 September 2006

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Thank you for attention