logging in or signing up Isle Royale Simulation Abhil Download Post to : URL : Related Presentations : Share Add to Flag Embed Email Send to Blogs and Networks Add to Channel Uploaded from authorPOINTLite Insert YouTube videos in PowerPont slides with aS Desktop Copy embed code: (To copy code, click on the text box) Embed: URL: Thumbnail: WordPress Embed Customize Embed The presentation is successfully added In Your Favorites. Views: 773 Category: Entertainment License: All Rights Reserved Like it (1) Dislike it (0) Added: January 01, 2008 This Presentation is Public Favorites: 0 Presentation Description No description available. Comments Posting comment... Premium member Presentation Transcript A Predator-Prey Simulation Using Field Data from Isle Royale, Michigan Alan Raetz: A Predator-Prey Simulation Using Field Data from Isle Royale, Michigan Alan Raetz Isle Royale, Michigan: Isle Royale, Michigan 544 square kilometers on Lake Superior 44 miles long, 8 miles wide US National Park Wilderness Area ~ 50 years of Predator/Prey Field Data Moose is 90% of wolf diet Very little immigration or emigrationSlide4: Isle Royale Wolf Population (Peterson, 1999)Slide5: Isle Royale Moose Population (Peterson, 1999)Isle Royale: Theoretical Models of Predator/Prey Relationships: Isle Royale: Theoretical Models of Predator/Prey Relationships John Vucetich, 2002 paper in Ecology Do spatial relationship predict how often predators kill prey (kill rate)? Prey density Predator density Prey/Predator ratio Simple theoretical models using field data Practical tool for wildlife management? Computer Simulation: Computer Simulation No, it’s not that kind of simulation...Simulation “Strange World”: Simulation “Strange World” Predators and Prey evolve behaviors Survivors pass genetic information to offspring Behavior is not pre-programmed Environment determines behavior Outcome of a simulation is not known Goal: Test predator/prey theories Questions: Questions If the spatial relationships of Isle Royale are duplicated in the simulation, will the outcome also mimic the field data? Is predator and prey density a major factor of predator success in the simulation? How useful is this computer model in predicting actual field data? Methods: Methods What are the assumptions in the model? Based on Isle Royale Field Data 1971-2001 Train predators and prey under average conditions Predator population range: 10 - 52 Wolves Prey population range: 550 - 2500 Moose 100 km2 (6.2 x 6.2 miles) simulation area. 1 pixel on screen = 10 m x 10 m space Slide12: ResultsSlide13: Isle Royale Field Data Vucetich (2002) - Reduction in kill rate as predator population increases due to reduced prey availability ?Example: 6 predators, 200 prey: Example: 6 predators, 200 preySlide16: Isle Royale Field Data Vucetich (2002)Slide18: Isle Royale Field Data Vucetich (2002)Results: Results Prey density is the major factor of predator kill rates in the simulation. Field data of Moose/Wolf populations on Isle Royale correlates somewhat. Simulation runs show large variance, but averaged over time, these results show predictable trends (not true of field data). Conclusion: Conclusion Spatial density is only one of many factors in predator success on Isle Royale. Simple simulations can’t predict complex interactions. You do not have the permission to view this presentation. In order to view it, please contact the author of the presentation.
Isle Royale Simulation Abhil Download Post to : URL : Related Presentations : Share Add to Flag Embed Email Send to Blogs and Networks Add to Channel Uploaded from authorPOINTLite Insert YouTube videos in PowerPont slides with aS Desktop Copy embed code: (To copy code, click on the text box) Embed: URL: Thumbnail: WordPress Embed Customize Embed The presentation is successfully added In Your Favorites. Views: 773 Category: Entertainment License: All Rights Reserved Like it (1) Dislike it (0) Added: January 01, 2008 This Presentation is Public Favorites: 0 Presentation Description No description available. Comments Posting comment... Premium member Presentation Transcript A Predator-Prey Simulation Using Field Data from Isle Royale, Michigan Alan Raetz: A Predator-Prey Simulation Using Field Data from Isle Royale, Michigan Alan Raetz Isle Royale, Michigan: Isle Royale, Michigan 544 square kilometers on Lake Superior 44 miles long, 8 miles wide US National Park Wilderness Area ~ 50 years of Predator/Prey Field Data Moose is 90% of wolf diet Very little immigration or emigrationSlide4: Isle Royale Wolf Population (Peterson, 1999)Slide5: Isle Royale Moose Population (Peterson, 1999)Isle Royale: Theoretical Models of Predator/Prey Relationships: Isle Royale: Theoretical Models of Predator/Prey Relationships John Vucetich, 2002 paper in Ecology Do spatial relationship predict how often predators kill prey (kill rate)? Prey density Predator density Prey/Predator ratio Simple theoretical models using field data Practical tool for wildlife management? Computer Simulation: Computer Simulation No, it’s not that kind of simulation...Simulation “Strange World”: Simulation “Strange World” Predators and Prey evolve behaviors Survivors pass genetic information to offspring Behavior is not pre-programmed Environment determines behavior Outcome of a simulation is not known Goal: Test predator/prey theories Questions: Questions If the spatial relationships of Isle Royale are duplicated in the simulation, will the outcome also mimic the field data? Is predator and prey density a major factor of predator success in the simulation? How useful is this computer model in predicting actual field data? Methods: Methods What are the assumptions in the model? Based on Isle Royale Field Data 1971-2001 Train predators and prey under average conditions Predator population range: 10 - 52 Wolves Prey population range: 550 - 2500 Moose 100 km2 (6.2 x 6.2 miles) simulation area. 1 pixel on screen = 10 m x 10 m space Slide12: ResultsSlide13: Isle Royale Field Data Vucetich (2002) - Reduction in kill rate as predator population increases due to reduced prey availability ?Example: 6 predators, 200 prey: Example: 6 predators, 200 preySlide16: Isle Royale Field Data Vucetich (2002)Slide18: Isle Royale Field Data Vucetich (2002)Results: Results Prey density is the major factor of predator kill rates in the simulation. Field data of Moose/Wolf populations on Isle Royale correlates somewhat. Simulation runs show large variance, but averaged over time, these results show predictable trends (not true of field data). Conclusion: Conclusion Spatial density is only one of many factors in predator success on Isle Royale. Simple simulations can’t predict complex interactions.