Analysis Example2

RECENT TRENDS IN RUSSIA’S FAMILY FORMATION AND FERTILITY: Preliminary GGS Findings: 

RECENT TRENDS IN RUSSIA’S FAMILY FORMATION AND FERTILITY: Preliminary GGS Findings Sergei V. Zakharov Center for Demography and Human Ecology, Russian Academy of Sciences Research Leader of Russian GGS zakharsv@online.ru

What information about family formation in Russia was insufficient or lacking before the GGS:: 

What information about family formation in Russia was insufficient or lacking before the GGS: When young people leave parental households What is partnership: 1994 microcensus and 2004 census referred to ‘registered’ and ‘unregistered marriage’ Prevalence of cohabitation

Slide3: 

How frequently cohabitation is converted into marriage Whether a consensual union replaces marriage Births by partnership status Partnership dissolution by partnership status and presence of children

Slide4: 

Direct data on birth intervals To what extent births out of marriage are births out of any partnership

The GGS brings new insights into Russian fertility debate: 

The GGS brings new insights into Russian fertility debate Many experts still put Russia beyond the European demographic space asserting that: early marriage is universal; marriage is rarely preceded by cohabitation; prevalence of consensual unions is low; non-postponed first birth (=unplanned first birth); there were no changes in timing of fertility and marriage; economic crisis is the sole cause of lowest-low fertility

Slide6: 

No reliable empirical evidence was available to scholars who argue that Russia was rather following the path of other developed countries, that is experienced the Second Demographic Transition.

LEAVING PARENTAL HOME IN RUSSIA: 

LEAVING PARENTAL HOME IN RUSSIA

Fig. 1. Cumulative percentage of men and women leaving parental home by specified age: 1992-1998 & 1998-2004: 

Fig. 1. Cumulative percentage of men and women leaving parental home by specified age: 1992-1998 & 1998-2004

Fig. 2. Cumulative percentage of men leaving parental home by specified age: Russia 1992-98 and selected FFS countries, men: 

Fig. 2. Cumulative percentage of men leaving parental home by specified age: Russia 1992-98 and selected FFS countries, men

Fig. 3. Cumulative percentage of women who left parental home by age 25: Russia 1992-98 and selected FFS countries, birth cohorts: 

Fig. 3. Cumulative percentage of women who left parental home by age 25: Russia 1992-98 and selected FFS countries, birth cohorts

Fig. 4. Cumulative percentage of men who left parental home by age 25: Russia 1992-98 and selected FFS countries, birth cohorts: 

Fig. 4. Cumulative percentage of men who left parental home by age 25: Russia 1992-98 and selected FFS countries, birth cohorts

Findings 1: 

Findings 1 Russian youth acquire the experience of living separately from parents rather early in life. The median age at leaving the parental home is about 21 for women and men. By age 25, 80% of respondents had left their parental home. The gender differences in age pattern of leaving are marginal. The early start of the first partnership contributes to the earlier start of settling separately from parents. Unlike Italy and some countries of Eastern Europe, in Russia we do not find a tendency towards leaving the parental home later. Yet, the comparability with FFS data is questionable. Perhaps, the GGS criterion of “leaving the parental home” as ‘at least 3 months of living separately’ is not perfectly appropriate, at least in the Russian context, to identify the start of one’s independent life.

THE FIRST PARTNERSHIP IN RUSSIA: 

THE FIRST PARTNERSHIP IN RUSSIA

Fig. 5. Cumulative percentage of women who had, by specified age, entered a first partnership: Russia, birth cohorts : 

Fig. 5. Cumulative percentage of women who had, by specified age, entered a first partnership: Russia, birth cohorts

Fig. 6. Cumulative percentage of men who had, by specified age, entered a first partnership: Russia, birth cohorts: 

Fig. 6. Cumulative percentage of men who had, by specified age, entered a first partnership: Russia, birth cohorts

Fig. 7. Cumulative percentage of women who had, by age 25, entered a first partnership: Russia & selected FFS countries, birth cohorts: 

Fig. 7. Cumulative percentage of women who had, by age 25, entered a first partnership: Russia & selected FFS countries, birth cohorts

Findings 2: 

Findings 2 In Russia, the age at entry into first partnership remains low. By age 25, more than 80% of women and 60% of men had entered a first partnership, and by age 30 this percentage attains 90% for both women and men. However, we can observe first signs of postponing the first partnership in the cohorts born in the second half of the 1970s. For female cohorts born in the 1950s in Russia, Lithuania, Italy and Sweden, the probabilities of entering a first partnership by age 25 were similar, while for the younger generations the indicators have been increasingly diverging.

BEING IN CONSENSUAL UNION OR IN MARRIAGE: THE RUSSIAN CASE: 

BEING IN CONSENSUAL UNION OR IN MARRIAGE: THE RUSSIAN CASE

Fig. 8. Cumulative percentage of women who had, by specified age, entered a first partnership which was Consensual Union: Russia, birth cohorts: 

Fig. 8. Cumulative percentage of women who had, by specified age, entered a first partnership which was Consensual Union: Russia, birth cohorts

Fig. 9. Cumulative percentage of men who had, by specified age, entered a first partnership which was Consensual Union, Russia, birth cohorts: 

Fig. 9. Cumulative percentage of men who had, by specified age, entered a first partnership which was Consensual Union, Russia, birth cohorts

Fig. 10. Cumulative percentage of women who had, by age 25, entered a first partnership which was Consensual Union, Russia & FFS Selected Countries, birth cohorts: 

Fig. 10. Cumulative percentage of women who had, by age 25, entered a first partnership which was Consensual Union, Russia & FFS Selected Countries, birth cohorts

Fig. 11. Cumulative percent Ever Married at first partnership including a direct marriage, Russia : Russia, women birth cohorts: 

Fig. 11. Cumulative percent Ever Married at first partnership including a direct marriage, Russia : Russia, women birth cohorts

Fig. 12. Cumulative percent Ever Married at first partnership including a direct marriage, Russia, men birth cohorts: 

Fig. 12. Cumulative percent Ever Married at first partnership including a direct marriage, Russia, men birth cohorts

Fig. 13. Cumulative percentage of women whose first partnership was a consensual union later converted into marriage, by the time since the start of the first partnership: Russia, birth cohorts: 

Fig. 13. Cumulative percentage of women whose first partnership was a consensual union later converted into marriage, by the time since the start of the first partnership: Russia, birth cohorts

Fig. 14. Cumulative percentage of women starting a first union as a Cohabitation, with Direct Marriage as competing event: Russia 1992-98 & Russia 1998-2004, & selected FFS countries, period tables: 

Fig. 14. Cumulative percentage of women starting a first union as a Cohabitation, with Direct Marriage as competing event: Russia 1992-98 & Russia 1998-2004, & selected FFS countries, period tables

Fig. 15. Cumulative percentage of ever married women (by specified age): Russia and selected FFS countries, period tables : 

Fig. 15. Cumulative percentage of ever married women (by specified age): Russia and selected FFS countries, period tables

Fig. 16. Cumulative percentage ever Married at first Partnership including marriage as start of partnership: Russia and selected FFS countries, women, period tables : 

Fig. 16. Cumulative percentage ever Married at first Partnership including marriage as start of partnership: Russia and selected FFS countries, women, period tables

Fig.17. Cumulative percent married, by time since the formation of a Consensual Union with union dissolution as competing event: Russia and selected FFS countries, women, period tables: 

Fig.17. Cumulative percent married, by time since the formation of a Consensual Union with union dissolution as competing event: Russia and selected FFS countries, women, period tables

Findings 3: 

Findings 3 Cohabitation is a long-standing and widespread practice in Russia. In cohorts born in the 1930-1950s, every fifth partnership started with cohabitation. Registered marriage begins to lose its dominance as the form of the first partnership with cohorts born in the 1960s. Today, Russia shares the American model but is evolving fast towards the Swedish pattern Proportion of marriages in first partnerships is declining, and the proportion of ever married is going down as well. About 60% of first partnerships either start as marriage or convert into marriage later. If the consensual union is not converted into marriage within three years from its inception, its later conversion into marriage becomes unlikely.

SEPARATION IN RUSSIA: 

SEPARATION IN RUSSIA

Fig. 18. Cumulative percentage of women who had separated, by time since union formation, all types of union: Russia 1992-98 and 1998-2004, & Selected FFS countries: 

Fig. 18. Cumulative percentage of women who had separated, by time since union formation, all types of union: Russia 1992-98 and 1998-2004, & Selected FFS countries

Fig. 19. Cumulative percentage of women who had separated, by time since formation of consensual union, with Marriage Formation as competing event: women Russia 1992-98 and 1998-2004, & Selected FFS countries: 

Fig. 19. Cumulative percentage of women who had separated, by time since formation of consensual union, with Marriage Formation as competing event: women Russia 1992-98 and 1998-2004, & Selected FFS countries

Findings 4: 

Findings 4 Partnership dissolution patterns had not changed over the last 10 years. Russia remains at the intermediary level between the United Sates and Italy. Stability of consensual unions in Russia is surprisingly high. After 7 years, 20% of unions in Russia dissolve, as compared to 35% in Italy, 40% in Sweden, and 45% in the United States.

BECOMING A PARENTIN RUSSIA: 

BECOMING A PARENT IN RUSSIA

Fig. 20. Annual Total Fertility Rate: Russian GGS and official statistics, 1974-2003: 

Fig. 20. Annual Total Fertility Rate: Russian GGS and official statistics, 1974-2003

Fig. 21. Cumulative percentage of women having the fist live birth by specified age: Russia, birth cohorts : 

Fig. 21. Cumulative percentage of women having the fist live birth by specified age: Russia, birth cohorts

Fig. 22. Cumulative percentage of women having the second live birth by specified age: Russia, birth cohorts: 

Fig. 22. Cumulative percentage of women having the second live birth by specified age: Russia, birth cohorts

Fig. 23. Cumulative percentage of men who had the first birth in the first union: Russia 1992-98 and 1998-2004, and selected FFS countries: 

Fig. 23. Cumulative percentage of men who had the first birth in the first union: Russia 1992-98 and 1998-2004, and selected FFS countries

Fig. 24. Cumulative percentage of women who had the first birth in the first union: Russia 1992-98 and 1998-2004, & selected FFS countries: 

Fig. 24. Cumulative percentage of women who had the first birth in the first union: Russia 1992-98 and 1998-2004, & selected FFS countries

Fig. 25. Cumulative percentage of women (by specified age) whose first child was born in a marital union of any order: Russia 1992-98 and 1998-2004, and selected FFS countries: 

Fig. 25. Cumulative percentage of women (by specified age) whose first child was born in a marital union of any order: Russia 1992-98 and 1998-2004, and selected FFS countries

Fig. 26. Mean interval between first and second live births, by the year of birth of the first child (truncated after the 10th year): Russian GGS: 

Fig. 26. Mean interval between first and second live births, by the year of birth of the first child (truncated after the 10th year): Russian GGS

Fig. 27. Cumulative parity progression ratios 12 (per 1000 first-parity women), by selected age: Russian GGS, birth cohorts: 

Fig. 27. Cumulative parity progression ratios 12 (per 1000 first-parity women), by selected age: Russian GGS, birth cohorts

Findings 5: 

Findings 5 In Russia the probability of first birth remained at around 90% until the cohorts born in the late 1960s. The cohorts born in the beginning of the 1970s increasingly postpone parenthood. Planning of the first birth becomes a widespread practice. Since first and second births are being postponed, the age profile of Russian fertility is changing. The interval between first and second births has increased to 6 years which is a historical record for Russia. Completed fertility of cohorts is likely to decline. Cohorts born in the 1970s will most likely have lower fertility than the older generations: 1.6 versus 1.8 for the 1960-61 cohort.

CHILDBEARING OUT OF PARTNERSHIP IN RUSSIA: 

CHILDBEARING OUT OF PARTNERSHIP IN RUSSIA

Fig. 28. Cumulative percentage of women who had, by specified age, the first birth in a registered marriage: Russian GGS, birth cohorts : 

Fig. 28. Cumulative percentage of women who had, by specified age, the first birth in a registered marriage: Russian GGS, birth cohorts

Fig. 29. Cumulative percentage of women who had, by specified age, the second birth in a registered marriage: Russian GGS, birth cohorts: 

Fig. 29. Cumulative percentage of women who had, by specified age, the second birth in a registered marriage: Russian GGS, birth cohorts

Fig. 30. Annual percentage of the First and All births born by women who are not in a union of any type: Russia, 1947-2003: 

Fig. 30. Annual percentage of the First and All births born by women who are not in a union of any type: Russia, 1947-2003

Findings 6: 

Findings 6 Proportion of marital births in the total number of births is declining for first, second and higher birth orders. Today, the proportion of extramarital births is close to 30%, and growing. The proportion of births out of any partnership is small, 8-10%, considerably lower than that of extramarital births. However, the data suggest the increasing trend.

POLICY RELATED ISSUES: 

POLICY RELATED ISSUES Marriage is more stable and more fertile than other forms of partnership. The popularity of marriage is declining. The social policy is faced with the dilemma: - whether to enhance the advantages of marriage - or to fully legalize the consensual unions in order to improve the opportunities for rearing children in these unions and to support the individual freedoms to choose the lifestyles.

Slide50: 

The use in official documents and the media of the definition of a child born out of wedlock as a “child born to a lonely mother” represents a vestige of the dying but still widespread derogatory and discriminatory tradition and should be discontinued and discouraged. Such move would promote the building of diverse and tolerant society which will strengthen the family.